Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVCollies]

Do you have math to back this up?

Uber currently runs an approximately breakeven operation. Tesla robotaxis would have many cost benefits relative to Uber such that the operating margin shoots to like 50% or more:

• No driver pay, which is about half of Uber's cost structure. This alone is a game-changer.
• EV operation and maintenance expenses are less than gasoline O&M expenses, enhanced by software being able to optimize for efficiency better than humans can.
• Lower initial hardware cost due to elimination of stuff like steering wheels and pedals and also due to Tesla's dominance at manufacturing.
• LFP battery packs that last for thousands of cycles.
• Lower sales and marketing expenses, which ate up 17% of Uber's revenue in the first half of 2022.
• Better safety, reducing insurance costs. Tesla could even self-insure.

Uber drivers are responsible for providing the vehicle, gas and maintenance. Although Robotaxi will remove half of the cost structure, it will be adding EV operation and maintenance cost.

I still see Robotaxi as a huge money maker for TSLA.

 

[The Accountant]

China wait times down to starting with “1 week” for the 3 & Y. Eg “1-4 weeks” for 3 & “1-8 weeks” for Y.

I would guess that is more about Tesla prioritizing new orders in or near Shanghai that can be delivered by quarter end (instead of delivering to older orders located too far away to be reached within 2 weeks).

But you can bet this will be reported as “demand drop” in China, Rather than the reality of end of quarter delivery optimization and large increase in production capacity.

Agree In October (first month of the quarter), all production will be for export. Even the first 2 weeks of Nov may be for export. At that point in the quarter, not many customers in china will get their vehicles in 1 week. As you stated, only when we get towards the end of the quarter will local shipments into China drop 1-4 weeks.

 

[mongo]

Agree In October (first month of the quarter), all production will be for export. Even the first 2 weeks of Nov may be for export. At that point in the quarter, not many customers in china will get their vehicles in 1 week. As you stated, only when we get towards the end of the quarter will local shipments into China drop 1-4 weeks.

Has ability to export kept up with the rate of production increase? Elon has spoken of unwinding the wave and Shanghai's output may be contributing to that. Though Tesla did purchase a lot of RORO capacity...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This "FSD will work!" "FSD will NOT work!" argument just gets better every day.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570739481380261893

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA pacing the NDX this morning (mourning for FedEx):

FedEx Corporation (FDX) $163.31 -$41.56 (-20.29%)

 

[elasalle]

TSLA pacing the NDX this morning (mourning for FexEx):

FedEx Corporation (FDX) $163.31 -$41.56 (-20.29%)

it's Goot day to sell a PUT or 2

CEO thinks recession due to COVID lockdown, but what if - it's over inventory (in the likes of Target and Walmart) like Cathie said a while back that's causing less shipments ...

 

[lascavarian]

it's Goot day to sell a PUT or 2

CEO thinks recession due to COVID lockdown, but what if - it's over inventory (in the likes of Target and Walmart) like Cathie said a while back that's causing less shipments ...

Also, my friend who services ICE cars was Fedexing repair parts from CA regularly during the supply chain panic. Fix the anxiety over the supply chain and demand for overnight shipments drops. At some point overnight shipments had to drop as we return to business as usual. YMMV

 

[Nocturnal]

This morning my boss asked why I've had poor performance all quarter. I told him it's because I expect a major global recession .

 

[Artful Dodger]

it's Goot day to sell a PUT or 2...

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This morning my boss asked why I've had poor performance all quarter. I told him it's because I expect a major global recession .

Lol..... I don't know about the rest of the US, but FedEx has been a hot mess in Philadelphia for about 4 years.

Nowadays they're essentially non-existent after Amazon built out their own delivery Network.

UPS seems stronger and busier than ever.

 

[Unpilot]

FTFY. Paging @Unpilot

Cheers!

Since the first split and especially after the second split....I have enough shares that if when the SP hit my sell point, I will have so much extra money I will buy a fleet of Tesla bots. Each one will spend a part of their day plotting mountain conquest's and the rest replying to post's here on TMC.

edit :for certainty of future sp

 

[Nocturnal]

Lol..... I don't know about the rest of the US, but FedEx has been a hot mess in Philadelphia for about 4 years.

Nowadays they're essentially non-existent after Amazon built out their own delivery Network.

UPS seems stronger and busier than ever.

An anecdote of all anecdotes, but Fed Ex delivered 2 packages to me a few months ago that weren't mine. They looked expensive (Nordstrom's). I called to get them to pick them up, but they never followed up. I finally dumped them at a Fed Ex store.

Makes total sense that shipping would dip though. Fewer accelerated parts orders, larger inventories, more people out physically shopping etc. Fed Ex is just doing damage control IMO. That said, I hope JPow is listening. I'm not particularly worried about this being a real impact to our Tesla stock.

 

[traxila]

FEDEX used to be our primary delivery service.

But then they began to relentlessly lose packages and deny any responsibility. To this day they refuse to produce a document that states they lost a package in any way. Their customer service is beyond atrocious, it is insulting. Also we identified several packages that were obviously identified as to their contents and stolen in house by FEDEX employees (not going into details).

We made the call several years ago to ditch FEDEX completely. The route owner was so incensed they actually canceled our account with corporate without our knowledge (another long story). We now use it only when customers insist that it is their best option, and yes, we try to talk them out of it.

One thing I did notice before they finally updated their software about ten years ago (or at least hid what I could see) was that the guts of their software was still running off of the 1970s disruption they produced 50 years ago.

Maybe what they are claiming right now will play out, but I am more inclined to believe that FEDEX is a rotting behemoth getting cut down to size by new disruptions in the industry with a bit of macro to go along.

How should this affect TSLA? Only question we should ever have there is has production met or exceeded demand? Ummmm, not yet.

 

[The Accountant]

With 69.2 going out to 100K users, do we think this unlocks additional FSD deferred revenue for Q3? Or will Zach remain conservative and not release this quarter?

If so, how much? Will it be material to results? Paging @The Accountant.

Tesla has $2.7B in Deferred Revenue related to the Auto business most of it FSD deferred revenue.
Of the $2.7B, Tesla stated in the Q2 10Q that it expects to realize $1B in the next 12 months.
I believe this $1B number relates to FSD in the US representing about 250,000 vehicles.
I think if 10.69.2.1 is available to anyone with a score of 80% or higher, then Tesla may recognize around $800m in Q3 adding about $0.23 to earnings which on it's own would provide a 20% beat on Wall Street's $1.07 earnings estimate.

In my opinion, for revenue recognition, if an FSD purchaser in the US had not bothered to use the Safety Score app, Tesla would still recognize the revenue as they have made it available to them. In other words, they are only preventing people from getting FSD beta with scores below 80%.

I am open to other viewpoints if anyone has different thinking on this.

 

[Usain]

Yes I did the math and currently Cruise and Waymo are nothing but money pits for their parent companies.

They will both continue to be money pits for their parent companies because

1. There are no demand for robotaxies today even in cities with robotaxies

2. They are not useful due to low numbers and limited routes/time of operation

3. As they expand to other cities, they will continue to lose massive amounts of money because the city they were in prior were not even close to being profitable.

4. I am not even talking about Tesla. I was saying how Tesla is working on trust and scalability while being profitable with their autonomous program without any L4s on the road. Other companies may go under BEFORE people find robotaxies acceptable as a useful tool in their lives. It only took uber over a decade and good saturation to be cash flow positive. Will GM allow Cruise to continue to suck their profits away for another decade in order to hit profitability?

I was making a point that all of these (NON TESLA) companies thinking robotaxis are the new gold rush is hitting nothing but a big bear trap.

This has been my thesis on Tesla's robotaxi "competitors" as well. Tesla's advantage is that their autonomous program is not a money pit like the others. No company can continue losing this much money for very long.

And one reason I know the "money pit" thesis is true is to just look at Waymo's effort in Chandler, AZ. This is a place with great weather and streets that are easy to navigate. Robotaxi has been solved pretty well in Chandler. So why hasn't Waymo expanded to the rest of Phoenix? The obvious answer is because they can't figure out how to make a profit.

 

[elasalle]

Moderator Edit: Keep it clean. Period.

 

[mongo]

Tesla has $2.7B in Deferred Revenue related to the Auto business most of it FSD deferred revenue.
Of the $2.7B, Tesla stated in the Q2 10Q that it expects to realize $1B in the next 12 months.
I believe this $1B number relates to FSD in the US representing about 250,000 vehicles.
I think if 10.69.2.1 is available to anyone with a score of 80% or higher, then Tesla may recognize around $800m in Q3 adding about $0.23 to earnings which on it's own would provide a 20% beat on Wall Street's $1.07 earnings estimate.

In my opinion, for revenue recognition, if an FSD purchaser in the US had not bothered to use the Safety Score app, Tesla would still recognize the revenue as they have made it available to them. In other words, they are only preventing people from getting FSD beta with scores below 80%.

I am open to other viewpoints if anyone has different thinking on this.

View attachment 853091

I don't forsee Tesla claiming the revenue until they stop have conditions wherein they disable FSD on vehicles. As long as it can be removed, it's not truly delivered/ transferred.

 

[Usain]

Tesla has $2.7B in Deferred Revenue related to the Auto business most of it FSD deferred revenue.
Of the $2.7B, Tesla stated in the Q2 10Q that it expects to realize $1B in the next 12 months.
I believe this $1B number relates to FSD in the US representing about 250,000 vehicles.
I think if 10.69.2.1 is available to anyone with a score of 80% or higher, then Tesla may recognize around $800m in Q3 adding about $0.23 to earnings which on it's own would provide a 20% beat on Wall Street's $1.07 earnings estimate.

In my opinion, for revenue recognition, if an FSD purchaser in the US had not bothered to use the Safety Score app, Tesla would still recognize the revenue as they have made it available to them. In other words, they are only preventing people from getting FSD beta with scores below 80%.

I am open to other viewpoints if anyone has different thinking on this.

View attachment 853091

Three possible reasons they might not recognize the revenue in Q3:
1. Tesla doesn't have any real need to recognize the revenue. Sooner or later doesn't matter for the mission.
2. It might still be hard to say FSD is a completed feature when everyone who paid is still not eligible get it.
3. Tesla can still take the feature away from someone who paid for it.

 

[Nocturnal]

In my opinion, for revenue recognition, if an FSD purchaser in the US had not bothered to use the Safety Score app, Tesla would still recognize the revenue as they have made it available to them. In other words, they are only preventing people from getting FSD beta with scores below 80%.

I am open to other viewpoints if anyone has different thinking on this.

View attachment 853091

Your knowledge of accounting is far better than mine, but that sounds right to me. The software is effectively "delivered" to the end customer, regardless if they install/download it. If I buy Excel from MS and never bother to register and download it, then MS still books that revenue. I don't believe not actually getting into the beta would impact that.

I don't forsee Tesla claiming the revenue until they stop have conditions wherein they disable FSD on vehicles. As long as it can be removed, it's not truly delivered/ transferred.

Hmm. You can be put into Autopilot jail temporarily, is that materially different? Perhaps that's one of the drivers for resetting strikes?