Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

There are plenty of places in this world where you have to walk/ski/sail for days if you want gasoline or other fossil fuels. I've been in quite a few of them, including in Alaska, in Bolivia, and any others. Many times I have hiked for days to get kerosene or benzina blanca. Increasingly the folk in those places have man-carried (or woman-carried) in solar and wind and batteries and are very happy to stop carrying in kerosene/etc on their backs. Heck, way back in c.2000 high up in the Andes we installed a large solar array on - wait for it - an oil & gas well site because it was cheapier and easier than trucking in the fuel for a generator.

The world is changing.

I went to Lhasa in the remotes of Tibet and saw a Tesla EV charger .... bummer /jk

wood cutters in remote areas of the world use chain saws (& not axes) (saw it myself) ... so gas must be getting hauled via mules ...

World Is Flat ...

 

[Skryll]

Interesting will be the battle over subsidies in that context.

If you want to know where ICE prices end up, you have to figure out what operating costs will look like long term. My feeling is as demand for gas drops, the operating costs of all of that infrastructure is spread across fewer and few gallons of gas. It won't happen over night, but even though demand will be dropping, economies of scale will be fading and gas prices will be going up.

High gas prices puts downwards pressure on the resale value of ICE vehicles as their operating costs increase. Operating costs for EVs is already much lower than ICE, if gas prices continue up, the disparity is only going to increase.

When politicians decide to take fossil fuel subsidies away and gas prices go up, be sure the fossil fuel network will fuel the chaos to stop them at all cost. Kazhakstan, Ecuador, yellow jackets in France, now Haiti

 

[ZsoZso]

MMs working hard to nail the close to exactly $300.
The fine adjustments back and forth are fun to watch...

Note: this morning the open interest graph shows that PUTs at 300 have overtaken the CALLs, but there is a lot of both (34k and40k), so the exact landing is the best for MMs.

 

[Krugerrand]

TSLA rising into the afternoon toward the close - yup, this is all on the up and up.

 

[henchman24]

Yeah....I'd say those Nasdaq/S&P are definitely within the realm of possibility, especially considering where they're both at as of right now. Wall St will play up the 100 basis point Fed hike to stoke a ton of fear. The funny part is that I think if the Fed were to do it, it would actually be viewed favorably by Wall St. In that the Fed just rips the band aid off, speeds up the incoming recession, and then they'll pause in Nov.

As for TSLA specific, the strength this week has been astounding. But I gravitation of 300/share, I feel it's mostly options related. And I wouldn't be surprised at all to see TSLA underperform significantly next week.

7% still seems like an awful lot in 2 days... right after a 7% drop this week. Pushing 11k I can easily see that. 10.5k is just a very large move for the whole market.

It would be better for the options market to really be around 280-283.33... so I really don't think the $300 magnet fits there. Tesla could have moved 5% lower in this week and fit better with the options market. To me, it is pretty simple as to why Tesla is over performing. The financials were great in Q2 into headwinds and Q3 looks like a blowout quarter in the making as those headwinds have eased. Of all bigger tech companies, Tesla is the most likely to beat on earnings a month from now. Also why we are getting upgrades right before we get deliveries. This flight to safety is keeping Tesla up.

Now when the market does recover (IMO right after the Fed meeting), I think Tesla is likely to underperform a bit. That'll be mostly out of this excessive strength though.

 

[woodisgood]

I have always wondered why Tesla fires always have either:

1. Total amount of gallons of water reported to put out the fire
2. Gallons of water/minute

Strange that hardly any other car fire, none of the above information is published

I know you’re posing a rhetorical question but let’s just answer it in no uncertain terms for the record:

It is a usually deliberate, but sometimes subconscious, effort to downplay and neutralize the overwhelmingly lower negative environmental and societal impact EVs, and Teslas specifically, have compared to ICE vehicles.

”The battery manufacturing has a higher carbon footprint the ICE…”
”The fires are harder to put out and use more water….”
”The cars emit more electromagnetic radiation….”
”The quietness of the vehicles is actually more dangerous to pedestrians….”

and so on.

EDIT to say this is why Tesla‘s annual Impact Report is required reading for all shareholders and supporters.

 

[Christine69420]

Not so good news

Fully Involved Tesla Car Fire Takes 42 Minutes to Extinguish - Stamford Fire Department

600 Gallons of Water Per Minute Help Suppress Challenging Fire Incident Number: 22-08855Incident Date: Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 11:18 AMIncident Location: In Back of 1132 E Main Street At 11:18 AM today, the Stamford Combined 911 Dispatch Center began receiving calls of a car fire behind...

www.stamfordfire.com

So if there is a fire in the US in other electrical equipment - like a substation for instance - do the Fire Departments use water only to extinguish those fires too?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agree In October (first month of the quarter), all production will be for export. Even the first 2 weeks of Nov may be for export. At that point in the quarter, not many customers in china will get their vehicles in 1 week. As you stated, only when we get towards the end of the quarter will local shipments into China drop 1-4 weeks.

I think Q4 will actually be the end of the wave. The only reason Q3 isn't the end of the wave is that Tesla wants to make up for the disruption in Shanghai for the upgrades. So they don't really have a choice but to flood the local China market in the last few weeks.

Starting in Q4, I still think there's a minor wave in that the majority of production goes to exports in the first 2 months, but I see it being more a dynamic of 75% in Oct, 50% in Nov, 40% in Dec. Then in Q1, it'll be more like 60% Jan, 50% Fed, 50% March. Then the wave will be completely gone.

The one thing that would change this is if there was some material weakness in the China market. At which case, it's much better for Tesla to continue exporting in the final month because they make much more margin on MIC sales to other countries verses MIC China sales locally where they have to lower the price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So if there is a fire in the US in other electrical equipment - like a substation for instance - do the Fire Departments use water only to extinguish those fores too?

It's the nature of Li-Ion cells. The solvents are flammable. Tesla has excellent First Responder's Guides on how to deal with battery pack fires. For example:

[PDF] Model S Emergency Response Guide - Tesla www.tesla.com › sites › default › files › downloads › 2016_Model_S...

Model 3 Emergency Response Guide - Tesla www.tesla.com › sites › default › files › downloads › 2017_Model_3_Eme...

TL;dr Use lots of water. No, more than that...

 

[rallykeeper]

Key word is the word "by" if they say "by" 2030 that means including what already sold and what sells in the next 7+ years hits 3M total.

If they say 3M per year by 2030 that is totally different.

Figuring Morgan Stanley wasn't so pessimistic as to think Tesla would only make 3M cars in the U.S. in the next 8 years, I took a look at the actual Morgan Stanley report. Turns out they are just bad writers and the tweet was garbled. They meant an annual run rate of >3 million cars in the U.S. by 2030.

"We est. Tesla makes >3.1mm EVs in the US by 2030. Assuming $10k IRA 'boost' per unit could be worth >$30bn to the company, nearly a 50% potential upside to our $65bn FY30 Auto EBIT."​

They are clearly comparing the additive $30b IRA "boost" to FY30 Auto EBIT without the IRA.

Going back to the subject of the original tweet, if they really do believe the IRA has that much potential to increase their earnings estimate, Morgan Stanley will have to upgrade TSLA soon. And, it would be meaningful -- their prior TSLA target was ~$200/share for Auto -- a 50% increase means an added $100 to that $383 target. Obviously, they will discount that somewhat, but it will still be an upgrade.

We'll all find out after Q3 earnings or Q3 10-Q.

 

[wipster]

I'm probably going to get scalded by stating this but why not Let FSD Cook? I don't own a Tesla (just TSLA for now) and have never experienced FSD or Autopilot; as such I'm pretty ignorant on those topics and only know what I see and read. But it seems to me that many, if not most of the people testing the latest FSD beta intervene before they really need to, based mainly on their experience as human drivers.

However what would happen if you don't intervene? Let FSD do what it's AI brain wants to do? Would that cause a substantial amount of accidents (lord knows we don't want that)? I would really like to know what FSD would do if it were allowed to...

 

[Singuy]

Not so good news

Fully Involved Tesla Car Fire Takes 42 Minutes to Extinguish - Stamford Fire Department

600 Gallons of Water Per Minute Help Suppress Challenging Fire Incident Number: 22-08855Incident Date: Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 11:18 AMIncident Location: In Back of 1132 E Main Street At 11:18 AM today, the Stamford Combined 911 Dispatch Center began receiving calls of a car fire behind...

www.stamfordfire.com

They used 3x the upper recommendation of gallons to put out the fire, most likely they left it at 600gallons/min full blast for 42 mins. Tesla recommend application of water for 45 mins to fully cool down the battery.

 

[Zero CO2]

So if there is a fire in the US in other electrical equipment - like a substation for instance - do the Fire Departments use water only to extinguish those fires too?

you would think cutting off the oxygen would be a better approach to electrical fires.. (i propose a big fireproof blanket)
maybe a chemical based suppressant needs to be developed to rapidly cool battery

 

[Nocturnal]

TSLA rising into the afternoon toward the close - yup, this is all on the up and up.

I know that we all have PTSD but I'm starting to wonder if we just aren't seeing more people go long.

I'm probably going to get scalded by stating this but why not Let FSD Cook?

Many of those interventions might turn out just fine, but when it's you in your car it's hard to let it be.

 

[traxila]

They used 3x the upper recommendation of gallons to put out the fire, most likely they left it at 600gallons/min full blast for 42 mins. Tesla recommend application of water for 45 mins to fully cool down the battery.

Those look like our 2170 buddies on the ground.

No explanation why or how.

As rare as these fires are, I wonder how the new 4680 structural packs will perform. Has to an even lower incidence rate. Maybe by an order of magnitude.

 

[Artful Dodger]

However what would happen if you don't intervene? Let FSD do what it's AI brain wants to do? Would that cause a substantial amount of accidents (lord knows we don't want that)? I would really like to know what FSD would do if it were allowed to...

That's exactly the opposite of how Tesla tells you to use FSD Beta. And they'll take it away from you if you do that. And rightfully so, it's Level 2. YOU are the driver.

 

[traxila]

you would think cutting off the oxygen would be a better approach to electrical fires.. i propose a big fireproof blanket

Tesla has always recommended copious amounts of water.

Perhaps an EV specific solution can be developed and become widespread.

EDIT:

Do battery fires need oxygen?


The lithium-ion battery or Li-ion battery fire does not need any oxygen to burn at all, because it can do that without any oxygen at all. The nature of the fire is recognized as completely chemical, so there is no role of oxygen in it that can start this fire.

 

[Singuy]

 

[lascavarian]

I'm probably going to get scalded by stating this but why not Let FSD Cook? I don't own a Tesla (just TSLA for now) and have never experienced FSD or Autopilot; as such I'm pretty ignorant on those topics and only know what I see and read. But it seems to me that many, if not most of the people testing the latest FSD beta intervene before they really need to, based mainly on their experience as human drivers.

However what would happen if you don't intervene? Let FSD do what it's AI brain wants to do? Would that cause a substantial amount of accidents (lord knows we don't want that)? I would really like to know what FSD would do if it were allowed to...

My thinking is that human driver inputs accelerate neural net development. No correction, no learning. This is not the entire game but a part of it as I view it.

 

[wipster]

I know that we all have PTSD but I'm starting to wonder if we just aren't seeing more people go long.


Many of those interventions might turn out just fine, but when it's you in your car it's hard to let it be.

That I can believe, but still...

Maybe a new YouTube channel "What Would FSD Do?" showing intervention and no intervention (in spots where non intervention would not cause a vehicle or pedestrian accident).