Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

Can anyone say, 'S-curve'?

WSJ: (subscription required):
Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready

• Long backlogs for EVs
• "A few years ago, auto executives weren't sure there would be enough buyers for plug-in electric models. Now, they worry they can't build them fast enough, while they intensify a multibillion-dollar rush to accelerate timelines and bring factories online"
• EVs account for only about 6% of overall US vehicle sales. That percentage has tripled in the last two years, while sales of other types of vehicles has declined"
• In July, 5 of the six fastest selling vehicles in the US were electrics of PHEVs.
• Inflation reduction act has stoked consumer demand.
• Executives from GM, Ford and VH have all said that they believe they can pass Tesla.
• Auto makers have found themselves hampered by insufficient supplies of critical parts, such as computer chips.
• Batteries are another bottleneck. Locking in contracts for battery cells on short notice from among a handful of global cell manufacturers presents a big challenge.
• GM Hummer and Lyriq are being produced at rates of less than a dozen a day, despite waiting lists of tens of thousands. Output is being constrained by battery supplies.
• Some executives from traditional car companies acknowledge they were too cautious on their early plans for electrics.
• Parts shortages at Rivian
• Lucid having problems securing parts that are normally in ample supply, such as carpet and glass.
• "Battery arms race". Chasing Tesla which has spent more than a decade developing a battery supply chain.
• Ford's Farley: Only half of the battery raw materials the auto industry needs to achieve its long-range EV sales targets are available today.
• Richard Sowden, principal at Frontier Investment Management Co, which owns about 2.8 million GM shares" "We believe that the manufacturing expertise of existing large auto companies like GM gives them a huge advantage"

Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready

More buyers are lining up for EVs, catching car companies flat-footed and triggering a race for more batteries, factories and materials. “Can I afford to keep waiting for this?”

www.wsj.com

The above link should allow those interested to access despite paywall.

 

[Singuy]

Can anyone say, 'S-curve'?

WSJ: (subscription required):
Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready

• Long backlogs for EVs
• "A few years ago, auto executives weren't sure there would be enough buyers for plug-in electric models. Now, they worry they can't build them fast enough, while they intensify a multibillion-dollar rush to accelerate timelines and bring factories online"
• EVs account for only about 6% of overall US vehicle sales. That percentage has tripled in the last two years, while sales of other types of vehicles has declined"
• In July, 5 of the six fastest selling vehicles in the US were electrics of PHEVs.
• Inflation reduction act has stoked consumer demand.
• Executives from GM, Ford and VH have all said that they believe they can pass Tesla.
• Auto makers have found themselves hampered by insufficient supplies of critical parts, such as computer chips.
• Batteries are another bottleneck. Locking in contracts for battery cells on short notice from among a handful of global cell manufacturers presents a big challenge.
• GM Hummer and Lyriq are being produced at rates of less than a dozen a day, despite waiting lists of tens of thousands.

LoL at these points

• Executives from GM, Ford and VH have all said that they believe they can pass Tesla.
• Auto makers have found themselves hampered by insufficient supplies of critical parts, such as computer chips.
• Batteries are another bottleneck. Locking in contracts for battery cells on short notice from among a handful of global cell manufacturers presents a big challenge.
• GM Hummer and Lyriq are being produced at rates of less than a dozen a day, despite waiting lists of tens of thousands.

Like how they talk about all the reasons why they have trouble producing EVs and then talk about how they can surpass Tesla on thoughts and prayers.

 

[wipster]

Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready

More buyers are lining up for EVs, catching car companies flat-footed and triggering a race for more batteries, factories and materials. “Can I afford to keep waiting for this?”

www.wsj.com

The above link should allow those interested to access despite paywall.

Got it! Thanks!

 

[JRP3]

You should prepare for the market of a 50% drop in the indexes is the end result from WW3.

I'd say that's a best case scenario from WW3.

 

[Discoducky]

EVs account for only about 6% of overall US vehicle sales.

6%??? Where did this come from? If it is 6%, color me happy as I thought it was 4%.

 

[Fred42]

Indeed, it is effectively "or" but the law is "and"; @willow_hiller dropped the opening section's 'lesser of'.

Note: this is for imports, which adds weight to idea of a Canadian Tesla Gigafactory.

This is the first time I've read that the Canadian auto luxury tax only applies to imports. Are you sure about that? What does import mean? From outside Canada? Outside North America?

 

[OrthoSurg]

There are some locations where much more than 95% of people that wanted FSD would add it after purchase; mainly for tax reasons. I know in Canada, cars over $75,000 USD ($100,000 CAD) have to pay an extra "luxury" tax of 10% of the total purchase and 20% of the amount over the limit, and I've heard of Canadians adding FSD after purchase to avoid it.

I was planning to buy the quad motors long range Cybertruck to avoid charging too often while leaving for a road trip in the USA. Seems like it will be considered as luxury!

 

[scaesare]

I thought Munro tested the "goo" in the Model 3/Y packs and determined that it was flammable. (What they tested from a different OEM was not as flammable.)

Hmm... well maybe it wasn't Intumescent Goo then... I seem to recall something about them hitting it with a torch too, and thought it more charred... I'll try and find that and watch more closely.

 

[Fred42]

Can anyone say, 'S-curve'?

WSJ: (subscription required):
Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready

• GM Hummer and Lyriq are being produced at rates of less than a dozen a day, despite waiting lists of tens of thousands. Output is being constrained by battery supplies.

The first GM-LG battery cell plant in Lordstown, Ohio began production August 2022. Time will tell about ramping speed and whether engineering has been sufficient to put an end to LG's problem with fires.

GM venture starts making batteries at Ohio plant for Hummer EV

GM and LG Energy Solution joint venture $2.3 billion battery cell plant in northeast Ohio is running. The plant will eventually employ 1,300 people.

www.freep.com

 

[mongo]

Executives from GM, Ford and VH have all said that they believe they can pass Tesla.

Huh...
(Assuming Global for the moment, even though they probably meant US)
So >3x Tesla in terms of combined EV production? Give everyone else combined a Tesla share and Tesla is still 20% of vehicle market.
With Tesla projecting 20 million a year in 2030, this would mean all new vehicle production (100 million per year) is converted to EV.
Not that I believe the other OEMs, but it would be a positive future and does not detract from Tesla's growth projections.

 

[woodisgood]

What an incredible crock of horsesugar being spun in that article. Caught off guard by demand? No. The strategy was always to blame resource scarcity to give ICE a longer life. What actually changed or was unexpected to the mental midgets that run the automakers was Tesla’s determination to secure the supply chain at the raw material level. Now they can’t drag their heels or they die quickly.

It was an intentional calculation for which we’d pay the price, and I wish for nothing more than these companies to meet their deserved demise.

 

[mongo]

This is the first time I've read that the Canadian auto luxury tax only applies to imports. Are you sure about that? What does import mean? From outside Canada? Outside North America?

Ack, that look like an error on my part. I missread an article calling out "sale or importation" then fyrtger led myself astray with the law headings. Section 24 is luxury tax and part of Section C: Tax in Other Circumstances. The previous section was B: Tax on importation.

 

[Singuy]

Huh...
(Assuming Global for the moment, even though they probably meant US)
So >3x Tesla in terms of combined EV production? Give everyone else combined a Tesla share and Tesla is still 20% of vehicle market.
With Tesla projecting 20 million a year in 2030, this would mean all new vehicle production (100 million per year) is converted to EV.
Not that I believe the other OEMs, but it would be a positive future and does not detract from Tesla's growth projections.

It's funny because this is a question every journalist ask and the answer is always "we will surpass Tesla". It's a baited question designed to remind people that Teslas valuation is too high because competition is coming. There are no CEO who still wants their job who will concede to Tesla, so the question will always be asked and the answer will always be YES no matter how moronic it sounds.

I was just pointing out how they literally spent a good amount of time telling you competition is not coming due to all these factors...but then say the competition is coming with one moronic question and answer.

 

[dhanson865]

Did you know that a powerwall after federal tax credit can be only $4900 to the consumer?

* 12 kW solar no PW $16,882
* 12 kW solar 1 PW $24,932 ($8050 above prior option)
* 12 KW solar 2 PW $29,832 ($4900 above prior option) (auto recommended option right now for me)
* 12 kW solar 3 PW $34,732 ($4900 above prior option)

I don't have notes on this PC of past pricing (I can look tonight when I get home) but that seems lower than it was. Maybe it's just the federal credit messing with my price perception because it makes it below $5,000.

 

[insaneoctane]

Can anyone say, 'S-curve'?

WSJ: (subscription required):
Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready

• Long backlogs for EVs
• "A few years ago, auto executives weren't sure there would be enough buyers for plug-in electric models. Now, they worry they can't build them fast enough, while they intensify a multibillion-dollar rush to accelerate timelines and bring factories online"
• EVs account for only about 6% of overall US vehicle sales. That percentage has tripled in the last two years, while sales of other types of vehicles has declined"
• In July, 5 of the six fastest selling vehicles in the US were electrics of PHEVs.
• Inflation reduction act has stoked consumer demand.
• Executives from GM, Ford and VH have all said that they believe they can pass Tesla.
• Auto makers have found themselves hampered by insufficient supplies of critical parts, such as computer chips.
• Batteries are another bottleneck. Locking in contracts for battery cells on short notice from among a handful of global cell manufacturers presents a big challenge.
• GM Hummer and Lyriq are being produced at rates of less than a dozen a day, despite waiting lists of tens of thousands. Output is being constrained by battery supplies.
• Some executives from traditional car companies acknowledge they were too cautious on their early plans for electrics.
• Parts shortages at Rivian
• Lucid having problems securing parts that are normally in ample supply, such as carpet and glass.
• "Battery arms race". Chasing Tesla which has spent more than a decade developing a battery supply chain.
• Ford's Farley: Only half of the battery raw materials the auto industry needs to achieve its long-range EV sales targets are available today.
• Richard Sowden, principal at Frontier Investment Management Co, which owns about 2.8 million GM shares" "We believe that the manufacturing expertise of existing large auto companies like GM gives them a huge advantage"

Oh, and Tesla shared their future battery design and strategy with the world and pleaded anyone and everyone to make as many as they could....2 years ago (5 days from today marks the 2 year anniversary of "battery day").

 

[scaesare]

(continuing on what I consider a fascinating topic since it's the weekend)

You got it!

Assuming I understand correctly what you are confirming, I had asked if you you were saying something represented on the display that is understood to be vector-space is evidence of data that was collected by previous vehicles. It seems as if you are saying "yes".

Yet you also just said:

Higher confidence is achieved with *some* amount of non-real-time ground truth (vector space) data of the next road segment at challenging areas.

So, I'm unsure if you mean that some of the vector space data is sourced by previous vehicles in non real-time, and some vectorspace data is collected in real time by the current car. Or if you are saying that some data, such as vector space is collected by previous cars, and other data (non vector space) is collected by the current car.

If the former then that would seem to be at odds with your assertion that vectorspace renderings (such as the creepwall and median box) are necessarily an indicator of having been ground truth sourced by previous vehicles. If the latter that that seems to be different that what was presented at AI day.

At about 16 mins in to AI day Karpathy discusses using multiple cameras to generate a vectorspace map in real time.

And at about 49 mins in to AI day it was said that vector space data collected by the fleet was used only for training labels, and then discarded.


So, it appears that the car does indeed generate real-time vectorspace data, and that data from previous cars is not used by your current car (only that it's NN was trained with that labeled data). Or at least that was the case at AI day.


So I guess I'm confused when I understand you to say that the apparent vectorspace representation of the creep wall and median box are indicators of ground truth sourced by previous cars?

 

[Christine69420]

Haha, I highly doubt it. Tesla can do 2 projects at once. They are not capital constrained. China is their most profitable factory, only makes sense to expand there. I think WuWa has lots of theories, not too many highly-placed sources...

Cheers!

Well obviously Tesla can do 2 and 3 projects at once!

But there may be a limited supply of equipment like giga presses and battery manufacturing tooling - and perhaps also process knowledge. So someone somewhere must wait longer than others for these resources.

 

[Tim S]

There are obvious external differences between the two versions. One structure has a continuous floor; the other does not. The 3/Y 2170 bty packs made in Sparks also have product ID stickers including version numbers visible inside the RF wheel well.

I don't see any sticker inside the RF wheel well on my wife's car (Made in Texas LR Y VIN 0116xx).

Pic of the bottom from the rear and front:

 

[HellsKitchen]

Just for fun, and to see the range of confidence of the stock here, what is everyone's best guess as to what the value of a 50K TSLA investment would be worth in 2035?

 

[ZachF]

Just for fun, and to see the range of confidence of the stock here, what is everyone's best guess as to what the value of a 50K TSLA investment would be worth in 2035?

I bet just the dividend yield on a $50k Tesla investment today will be $10k in 2035+.… and it won’t be a particularly large dividend either.