Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

It's not clear to me if you expect Tesla's market cap will grow at 50% for 10 years, or you mean volume of production- but assuming you mean market cap (since that's what we're discussing), that would put the stock value at $17,300 (assuming no splits) in ten years! Things compound fast at 50% CAGR! That number sounds crazy to me, so maybe you're talking production volume.

It sounds as if you are thinking only of the automobile section of Tesla.

 

[Singuy]

The comments section is a gold-mine of information there on how people's perceptions still have a LONG LONG way to go. Say what you want, but the FUD machine has ingrained a lot of mis-information into the mindset of your typical casual auto buyer.

Yeah but those are wsj audience in which that publication have been crapping on EVs for years.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yeah but those are wsj audience in which that publication have been crapping on EVs for years.

Regardless, it's still the majority of shoppers of autos. You see similar comments out of auto-forums, auto-mags, etc.

There is still a lot of FUD to dispel.

 

[Discoducky]

It's not clear to me if you expect Tesla's market cap will grow at 50% for 10 years, or you mean volume of production- but assuming you mean market cap (since that's what we're discussing), that would put the stock value at $17,300 (assuming no splits) in ten years! Things compound fast at 50% CAGR! That number sounds crazy to me, so maybe you're talking production volume.

While that SP would be great and yeah, it does compound fast, I'd bet the valuation will be less as the forward P/E will be much lower.

 

[SmokyPeat]

While that SP would be great and yeah, it does compound fast, I'd bet the valuation will be less as the forward P/E will be much lower.

Ok, so you expect earnings to grow at ~50% for 10 years, not market cap. That makes more sense. I won't complain if the stock pulls a 50x in 10 years, though!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Regardless, it's still the majority of shoppers of autos. You see similar comments out of auto-forums, auto-mags, etc.

There is still a lot of FUD to dispel.

Yes, but apparently it doesn’t matter since backlogs are so long.

 

[dhanson865]

Ok, so you expect earnings to grow at ~50% for 10 years, not market cap. That makes more sense. I won't complain if the stock pulls a 50x in 10 years, though!

His example stock price was near a 15x so that was what I was looking at. I think that puts me somewhere over 3x my goal retirement so long as inflation doesn't triple prices by then.

I guess if prices (health care, food, and internet) double between now and then and the stock does a 15x then I'm still more than double my goal retirement.

I'm assuming I'll have solar PV to lock in electrical and my house will be paid for and I'll have a couple of Teslas.

 

[Unpilot]

Richard Sowden, principal at Frontier Investment Management Co, which owns about 2.8 million GM shares" "We believe that the manufacturing expertise of existing large auto companies like GM gives them a huge advantage"

And that is why Tesla longs can and will make a killing.

 

[wipster]

All of us will be Teslanaires in 2035 when $1,000,000 is equivalent to $100 2022 dollars.

Hope I last that long... otherwise the next generation will be living large!

 

[scaesare]

AK says "we'd like to" implying that they haven't yet. This is a huge task and while I think it would be cool if they were, I think this is a critical long-pole item for single stack vector space.

Also, I will continue this, if needed, in another thread come market open tomorrow...

Thanks for the exchange and your insight... and agree best moved elsewhere come tomorrow...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Lutz the Putz, four short years ago.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571583931543175171

 

[tinyrodent]

The latest WuWa video revisits an area he believes may be the location of a new Tesla factory. I consider it speculation fit for weekend post, noting considerable vacant land adjacent to the east and south of the current factory which would seem to make more sense. However there's no question that the area is seeing rapid demolition to prepare for something.

I struggled to figure out where exactly this new piece of land is located, but finally found it after staring at Google satellite view for a while. Current factory outlined in green below; new location outlined in red; and Luchao Port dock (used for RORO ship loading) outlined in blue.

Looking at the new area in more detail, the movie theatre/supermarket is outlined in red, the "ground and air shot corresponding position" is in green, and the start of the "ground observation" route shown in blue. Most of the buildings seen here are already gone.

 

[lascavarian]

So I was working in the yard and the garage door goes up and I watched our early Model 3 (silver) be backed out silently and pull forward down our tree lined drive with sky reflections dancing on the glass roof.

l drive so often I never see it move like that. It seemed to be lower to the ground in motion and so quiet. The way it moved through the world was like floating on a whisper. Such grace in movement. Four years now and I’m still captured by this beautiful creation.

 

[wipster]

Regardless, it's still the majority of shoppers of autos. You see similar comments out of auto-forums, auto-mags, etc.

There is still a lot of FUD to dispel.

Just let them all take a test drive with The Tesla Barbarian... they'll be sold in very little time!

 

[Words of HABIT]

So I was working in the yard and the garage door goes up and I watched our early Model 3 (silver) be backed out silently and pull forward down our tree lined drive with sky reflections dancing on the glass roof.

l drive so often I never see it move like that. It seemed to be lower to the ground in motion and so quiet. The way it moved through the world was like floating on a whisper. Such grace in movement. Four years now and I’m still captured by this beautiful creation.

Hey @lascavarian , enough with the melancholy poems. You know the rules here!

 

[scaesare]

AK says "we'd like to" implying that they haven't yet. This is a huge task and while I think it would be cool if they were, I think this is a critical long-pole item for single stack vector space.

Also, I will continue this, if needed, in another thread come market open tomorrow...

Since it's not yet during trading time:

What do you make of Karpathy's Tweet from back in March?:

FSD Beta 10.11 release notes. Fave item: "Upgraded modeling of lane geometry from dense rasters (“bag of points”) to an autoregressive decoder that directly predicts and connects “vector space” lanes point by point using a transformer neural network."

"This enables us to predict crossing lanes, allows computationally cheaper and less error-prone post-processing, and paves the way for predicting many other signals and their relationships jointly and end-to-end."

TLDR a GPT-like Transformer is now predicting the lanes and their connectivity. This "direct to vector space" framework allows predictions to be jointly coherent (due to sequential conditioning) and v easily used by planner (due to sparsity). Excellent work from the team!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Hurricane Fiona tearing through Puerto Rico. Entire island has gone dark. Puerto Rico needs Tesla (solar panels, battery storage for power) and SpaceX (Starlink satellites for communications). Prayers go out to all those in Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Fiona tears through powerless Puerto Rico

Hurricane Fiona struck Puerto Rico's southwest coast on Sunday as it unleashed landslides, knocked the power grid out and ripped up asphalt from roads and flung the pieces around.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[brantse]

Weekend off topic... I bought a very small amount of shares in Polestar (PSNY) a few weeks ago. I just signed into my account to see if I was earning any "fully-paid lending income" and found that I'm earning 156% annually on those shares being lent out!

 

[wipster]

Hurricane Fiona tearing through Puerto Rico. Entire island has gone dark. Puerto Rico needs Tesla (solar panels, battery storage for power) and SpaceX (Starlink satellites for communications). Prayers go out to all those in Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Fiona tears through powerless Puerto Rico

Hurricane Fiona struck Puerto Rico's southwest coast on Sunday as it unleashed landslides, knocked the power grid out and ripped up asphalt from roads and flung the pieces around.

www.ctvnews.ca

Sad to see that happening again. Seems like a great opportunity for the Boring Co. to put their grid underground... if they could get the funding that is.

 

[betstarship]

Hurricane Fiona tearing through Puerto Rico. Entire island has gone dark. Puerto Rico needs Tesla (solar panels, battery storage for power) and SpaceX (Starlink satellites for communications). Prayers go out to all those in Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Fiona tears through powerless Puerto Rico

Hurricane Fiona struck Puerto Rico's southwest coast on Sunday as it unleashed landslides, knocked the power grid out and ripped up asphalt from roads and flung the pieces around.

www.ctvnews.ca

To me, its beginning to sound like a broken record for X country requiring Y products/services from Tesla for Z climate change related disaster. It's almost like they're going to have to prioritize based on disaster if this continues.