Elon said Tesla has plenty of batteries for this year, and the company gets most of its supply from 3rd parties (CATL, LG, Samsung, BYD…). What prevent these suppliers from delivering batteries to GM and others, if Tesla has enough on its plate? I don't see how a lack of batteries can last if Tesla says there aren't limited by supply?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Listening to Mr. Tavares carefully I find it odd that this indicates Stellantis is doomed. Carlos Tavares has a long standing habit of thinking clearly. That is how he's been successful at managing profitable operations for some companies that have had huge losses for decades. Think Fiat, Chrysler, Opel.
Rationally his descriptions of infrastructure is both rational and practical.
1. That clean energy production and distribution is essential is hardly something with which we would disagree. He sees Germany retreating to coal. Brazil retreating to fossil fuels. The US dirty coal:
joe-manchin-senator-millions-coal-grant-town-west-virginia
Then think of India, nearly all of Africa, South American and Asia.
Is Tavares myopic to declare that logically, clean power should be first?
2. As for charging infrastructure. Even North America, Western Europe and China have gigantic deficiencies in charging infrastructure. Is he wrong about that one?
3. As for affordable BEV for the world, is he incorrect? Right now Stellantis sells the most affordable mainstream BEV's from Fiat 500, Peugeot e208 to Ram ProMaster and a few dozen more:
4. He says Stellantis is determined to meet the goals already established and continue to do so. Their concentration on BEV delivery trucks is various sizes./cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23146868/RM022_003PM5c7g3f2a7m92sb3l707vf26o5j.jpg)
Amazon makes a deal with Stellantis to buy electric Ram ProMaster delivery vans in 2023
Amazon will also put its software in “millions” of vehicles.www.theverge.com
Then there are the actual results to date:
Stellantis achieves record first half 2022 earnings, BEV sales climb nearly 50% YOY
One of the largest global automakers, Stellantis, posted its first-half earnings for 2022. Stellantis’s electrification strategy is paying off so...electrek.co
All that said, Carlos Tavares is not a visionary. He's practical, deliberate and highly successful in saving large manufacturers from ruin. To equate him with idiots and fools, climate deniers and perry bureaucrats is not correct.
Please listen carefully. He's pleading for clean energy and charging infrastructure.
Keep also in mind that their largest single global market share is in Brazil. They sell several BEV's here, but there are few buyers. They're pushing anyway, as they are also doing in other less electrified markets, none of which have anything Tesla yet, nor any large-scale clean energy.
How was he wrong? Factually.
I completely disagree with your assessment. His analysis was cleverly designed to protect Stellantis' financial interests. It went off the rails right from the beginning of his argument where he claims you need clean energy before EV's make sense. This is factually wrong because the combination of EV's and our current mix of power generation is ALREADY a net benefit to reducing greenhouse gasses. Even if EV's ran off 100% natural gas with plant efficiences of 80% and above EV's would be a net benefit. Remember, ICE vehicles are extremely lucky to hit 20% thermal efficiency in the real world. Point #1 of your summary above glosses over that fact by saying "Clean energy production and distribution is essential." without saying it's essential for EV's to be a net benefit in reducing emissions. And that is the question Mr. Tavares was addressing. It's just a slick way of saying EV's burn fossil fuels currently so they are just as bad as ICE which is already FALSE!
It also ignores that cars consume energy over the life of each vehicle manufactured so waiting for a grid that is 80% renewables before we make large volumes of EV's is not just wrong, it's idiotic. I agree with you that Travares is not an idiot, but that just makes what he is saying all that much more sinister. It's pure greed. We don't need and clean energy before we make zero emission vehicles. The grid is already a mix of energy sources and every year it becomes cleaner. Even if the remaining arguments were good, the faulty premise makes his conclusions false and he knows it, he's just defending Stellantis.
I could spend the next hour picking apart the arguments that follow from the initial faulty premise, but most people on this thread are already informed enough about the benefits of EV's in reducing dependency upon gas and oil to make that a waste of my time. I'm disappointed to see people like you using this thread furthering the interests of those still stuck in ICE economics by endorsing that kind of linear but irrational reasoning. The change is happening now, the change is a good thing, and the world is leaving the ideas of Mr. Tavares behind. He will be dead and buried so he doesn't care.
How dare you endorse things that have been disproven repeatedly on this thread and think we won't notice!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Smartphone batteries are widely available as well. Yet Apple on version 14 still seems to be pulling in 80% of the margin available.
I drove from Philly to a state park on the coast of New Jersey yesterday and passed 3 Ford dealerships along the way. I wondered which of those dealerships was planning on paying the $1M fee to Ford for the privilege of selling EVs? The very EVs that will almost certainly lead to the end of the dealership model entirely.
For these big players, it's not nearly just about building EVs. They have to voluntarily commit suicide just for the slightest chance of survival in a footprint maybe 1/4 to 1/10 of what they're used to.
Those are the conversations going on, not "can we find the batteries". And then there's the fact they're unlikely to have the engineering knowhow to build or scale compelling EV products effectively in first place....
The solution today might not be the same as it was for Musk. But it is clearly a solvable problem and it is equally clear that Stellantis has the resources to solve it. If they had the will to do it.
@Rohan Here's another one for you:
In order:
1. @aamulder talks of the USA. Tavares speaks of the world. China,US, France, Italy mostly pretty decent for Tesla, even some other BEV but clean energy, not so much. Denmark, UK, Norway are pretty good, not so much elsewhere.
2. @Artful Dodger is quite correct, but...Mr. Tavares did speak of what needs to happen for sustainable future, even Elon would agree. When Tavares spoke of logical sequence his logic was about BAU, but he did not say that in that setting. Absolutely he did not imply anywhere that building a charging network was for Stellantis to do. Rationally, nobody could replicate Tesla's achievement. Rationally, new entrants don't need to do that. Tesla did, and now is monetizing it's investment, made because nobody else would do it. Nobody needs anymore to follow Tesla strategy, even if they could.
3.@Silent Ludicrosy is spot on on the 'sequence' question, but Tavares was discussing how things should ahem happened to best benefit a carbon-free mobility future. A regular feature of his discussions on any subject is the habit of first describing an ideal world, then shifting to the actual world and not bothering to make a transition. He's very easy to misinterpret because of that. His actual decisions deal with what he can do, which is pretty impressive when you consider the impossibly antiquated messes he has had.
Finally, nobody needs to agree with me, I obviously am impressed with his success from PSA, Opel, Vauxhall and IVECO to Chrysler. Do I wish he'd moved faster to make Jeep and Chrysler BEVs? yes! Was that possible. I'm not at all convinced they'd have survived. However, they're making rapid progress with Europe and even in BEV barren wastelands where they sell Fiat and Peugeot BEV's regardless of market preparedness.
For overall contribution to emissions reduction I find it odd that none of the commentators notice Stellantis lineup of delivery vehicles:
New Opel Rocks-e KARGO: The Electric Micro Delivery Vehicle
Emissions-free light delivery motor vehicle: Rocks-e KARGO is a new kind of LCV Enterprising: Battery-electric SUM goes boldly where no LCV has gone before Transports parcels, pizza and more: Over 400 litres cargo volume, 140 kg payload
www.media.stellantis.com
The list of those goes on. Every one of those is saving more emissions than do a small fleet fo privately owned BEV's.
Thinking rationally, not from the perspective of a very happy TSLA investor, I think is is quite positive that people are building small and medium delivery vehicles at scale. Perhaps the US might understand better were they to relable those vehicles as Ram's and sell them to Amazon. On yes, the BEV Jeep's are coming too, and these ones will be made in the USA.
It doesn't even take will, just an eye toward profit. It's evident that the supercharging business is reasonably good at scale and that there is room for a second or third automaker-led solution.
I dare because I advocate continuous improvement.
I dare because taking a short interview as representing his views may be precipitous.
I dare because I am thrilled that he sees the entire set of problems and is doing all he can to dress them.
I dare because the world is a better place because he took GM Europe, Fiat and PSA, filthy emissions and all and is transforming them as quickly as can be done.
I also understand that many of us absolutely refuse to consider that any traditional ICE maker could transform itself into a successful maker of clean vehicles.
We often do not want to acknowledge at Elon Musk wants these companies to succeed in building clean vehicles.
OK, now all of you can attack some more. I will not, for the moment, address this topic more.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Forward Observing
The human animal mind has been described as a beautiful thing; interesting since some fail to water the thing. The human mind can justify any truth and lie in the same breath. Finding and discerning the truth is extremely difficult and often deadly to follow. Our cultures teach us to believe lies; example, here it is Santa Clause. The lie is meant to teach that. . . I hold my tongue around my GrandPups so they can enjoy the thrill of where “Bow” the elf will appear tomorrow morning each morning leading up to the 25th.
My mantra as a short lived stone sculptor was, “seek the stones soul.” I also established for myself that carving stone was easier than changing human minds. If a piece of stone fell or broke off I just modified my vision of the finished ~ kind of like the stone telling me to change my vision. As a sculptor, all I did was enhance the beauty of the stone.
By buying and supporting changes that work to slow and hopefully stop climate change is my small footprint. There is nothing I say or do that will change people like Lutz, this latest corrupt voice, or the CEO of BMW from spewing their version of truth; likewise nothing I say or do will change the receiving brain that believes their words as music to their ears.
Seek the truth and do not embrace the lies.
Cheers
The human animal mind has been described as a beautiful thing; interesting since some fail to water the thing. The human mind can justify any truth and lie in the same breath. Finding and discerning the truth is extremely difficult and often deadly to follow. Our cultures teach us to believe lies; example, here it is Santa Clause. The lie is meant to teach that. . . I hold my tongue around my GrandPups so they can enjoy the thrill of where “Bow” the elf will appear tomorrow morning each morning leading up to the 25th.
My mantra as a short lived stone sculptor was, “seek the stones soul.” I also established for myself that carving stone was easier than changing human minds. If a piece of stone fell or broke off I just modified my vision of the finished ~ kind of like the stone telling me to change my vision. As a sculptor, all I did was enhance the beauty of the stone.
By buying and supporting changes that work to slow and hopefully stop climate change is my small footprint. There is nothing I say or do that will change people like Lutz, this latest corrupt voice, or the CEO of BMW from spewing their version of truth; likewise nothing I say or do will change the receiving brain that believes their words as music to their ears.
Seek the truth and do not embrace the lies.
Cheers
Tesla said they would buy every cell these companies can provide. I think it's safe to take them at face value.
It's possible these guys produce beyond when they have contracted to provide Tesla and would be willing to sell that surplus to other buyers at a premium to their Tesla contract. (If there is no premium why bother?)
Even if this were possible, do legacy auto companies have the operational flexibility to add an additional supplier to their battery mix? The only way I can see this being relevant is if the supplier happened to have surplus of cells the legacy automaker already utilizes. I don't think there is a ton of overlap in what Tesla uses and what legacy auto uses. For example GM uses pouch cells which Tesla mostly avoids (not sure about storage).
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
That's great, is there an FSD thread it should be posted in. Sorry for the snark but I've given up simply disliking the "personal views on FSD" posts that have been clogging up this thread recently
No worries. I know what thread this is, but it seemed news worthy since it's the first time FSD seemed to perform flawlessly. Since every analyst doesn't include FSD into their estimates, if it does prove itself, then it would have a material effect on the stock price (and earnings). Also didn't want to start a FSD discussion, just make sure people were aware. Now back to relevant topics, like the price of solar ;-)
My apologies if this has already been posted, but great news for production in China!
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/VCWOKXD4QVPVHHK7LJXLLYDQ34.jpg)
www.reuters.com
Tesla completes production capacity expansion at Shanghai plant
Tesla completed a project to expand production capacity at its Shanghai plant on Monday, according to a statement on a Shanghai government platform for companies' environmental information disclosures.
www.reuters.com
You could have at least defended an auto executive who is pushing their company forward, not one who is feigning helplessness in the face of a bunch of industry myths.
Well, I do speak of the USA, but that's because I was responding to this:
Maybe you meant Canada and Mexico have gigantic deficiencies in charging infrastructure? I can only speak to the section of North America I drive in, but it leads me to believe that "North America" was not the right example to use, and I recently heard that China has more EV chargers than any other country*, so I find the "China" example a bit suspect too.
I'm not ruling out some of the OEMs being successful with EVs, I just don't think arguments like #2 above and a plan to delay, delay, delay is the way to get there. We've all seen "the competition is coming" and then when they arrive with their first EVs their efficiency isn't that great and their battery supply isn't that great and they have recalls like "risk of bursting into flames" (GM, Hyundai) or "tires may fall off while driving" (Lexus) or "power loss while driving" (Ford) or "in-car software is so bad that we fired the CEO over it" (VW). In other words, even if your ICE sales will buy you some years, it's not like you can wait those years and then when you're ready just jump in and be successful.
* China Added 963,000 Electric Vehicle Charging Piles Since January in its Push to Lead the World in EV Sales
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You are incorrectly representing what Tavares actually said when you gloss over his primary point, that you need to start with clean energy (before EV's can start protecting the planet from global warming). That is objectively false and should set off the radar of anyone who knows anything about electrification. He goes on to say that clean energy requires about a 20-year lead time, which is arguably wrong. He arbitrarily chose 80% green energy as some kind of threshold before EV's made sense which is illogical to anyone who understands the particulars.
McElroy opens with (to Taveres): "You're not too keen on EV's, you're saying, whoa, whoa, whoa, slow down a little bit, we have to allow for a transition, explain your position, please."
Traveres replies, "Well, it's very simple, ummm, EV's can be wonderful, to ensure that we protect the planet, from a global warming perspective. For that to happen, there is a very specific sequence that we need to respect because we need to think about it on a lifecycle analysis perspective. Not only a mobility tool, but the way you produce the energy. So, you should start by producing cleeean energy. Producing clean energy is not an easy, an easy, ah, thing to do, so it needs some time, um, my estimation is that for the world to be 80% clean energy supported, you need 20 years lead time. It's the longest lead time, so you start with clean energy, that's number one."
And he goes on to mislead and deceive while trying to sound reasonable and logical. Defending false perspectives by mischaracterizing them is not why people come here. I don't care how enchanted you are with Mr. Tavares past business successes, his time has come and gone. And he proves it in the very interview you are defending. He needs to step out of the way and let the real leaders, lead the way. We know who they are, and it ain't Carlos Tavares!
Just think if he told Henry Ford to slow down and wait for the roads and gas stations to get built!
Are you kidding me? This is one of the most important topics related to the investment of TSLA and its future valuation. This video shows one of the best FSD capabilities I’ve seen so far!That's great, is there an FSD thread it should be posted in. Sorry for the snark but I've given up simply disliking the "personal views on FSD" posts that have been clogging up this thread recently
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
Especially in view of the Great Filter for coach manufacturers at the beginning of the previous century. (Reasonably) smart people do stupid things all the time.
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