Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

In case anyone wants some good history of Fed rate raises and some interesting historical facts of the ramifications...

It gets me thinking though; if the Fed had not raised so much in 04 to 06, would we have had such a big recession or a recession at all?

Fast forward to today and it seems like we are heading toward 3% and beyond...

 

[Hock1]

I thought he was Chair. Maybe you're describing a time before that when under consideration?

No. At one time he was Chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market in the early 90's. And, he was on the SEC advisory board.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Just saw a commercial on CNBC, jay Leno garage @ 10 pm from starbase, with Elon talking space x with jay

There is a 10 minute segment of this up on youtube already

 

[Nocturnal]

In case anyone wants some good history of Fed rate raises and some interesting historical facts of the ramifications...

It gets me thinking though; if the Fed had not raised so much in 04 to 06, would we have had such a big recession or a recession at all?

Fast forward to today and it seems like we are heading toward 3% and beyond...

Considering that much of the crash was due to people suddenly being unable to afford their interest only ARM payments as rates rose and house prices stopped appreciating, yeah.

 

[traxila]

In case anyone wants some good history of Fed rate raises and some interesting historical facts of the ramifications...

It gets me thinking though; if the Fed had not raised so much in 04 to 06, would we have had such a big recession or a recession at all?

Fast forward to today and it seems like we are heading toward 3% and beyond...

View attachment 855236

Would not have made a difference what the FED did leading into 2008.

Real estate exploded based on Ninja loans and all the mortgages were sold like hot radioactive garbage by their originators. When the music stopped playing whoever was holding the derivatives was screwed. What was required to mitigate that business cycle collapse was real loan origination regulation and also real credit ratings agencies.

Oh, wait. I just made a funny.

 

[WattsHappening]

Just a few minutes now.

I must admit this one feels a bit more consequential than previous ones. Bullish sentiment going into Q3 P&D would be so welcome!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Welcome to Wall Street, the world's biggest casino!

Again, this comment is unfair to @unk45 who has established without a doubt that:

1. Casino's are well-regulated businesses, and
2. the more appropriate analogy is "brothel".

Welcome to Fleece Street.

/s

 

[Mengy]

Just a few minutes now.

I must admit this one feels a bit more consequential than previous ones. Bullish sentiment going into Q3 P&D would be so welcome!

Market seems to be rallying slightly going into the announcement, could be a positive signal...

 

[wipster]

Norway continues to astonish as the country that is leading the BEV revolution

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572607361721712642

Makes me proud to be half Norwegian!

 

[hitchhiker]

well that was a quick drop.

 

[wipster]

You would probably own 2 mountains already.

And they would have a lot of smelly trees on them...

 

[Nocturnal]

well that was a quick drop.

It's wild that we let algorithms push our capital markets around like that.

 

[wipster]

.75 it is.

 

[traxila]

As per COLBY SMITH twitter:

Fed raises rates by 75bps to a target range of 3-3.25%. Officials see fed funds reaching 4.4% at year-end, suggesting one more 75bp hike this year, before peaking at 4.6% in '23. Unemployment set to rise to 4.4% with growth slowing. Core inflation still not at 2% target in '25.

Gotta get me one of those crystal balls. Sounds like we got a 0.75 and a 0.5 coming up for EOY.

These guys need to CHILLAX.

 

[Mengy]

75bps increase as expected, but forward looking news is harsh so the market is reacting badly. Roll out the "red" carpet, lol.

 

[henchman24]

The future projections are 75bps and 50bps too... that is up from previous. So that is likely causing some trepidation in the market.

Frequently in these events though, first move is usually the wrong move.

 

[hitchhiker]

so everyone is surprised that they're increasing by exactly the number they forecast... just like they always do.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As per COLBY SMITH twitter:

Fed raises rates by 75bps to a target range of 3-3.25%. Officials see fed funds reaching 4.4% at year-end, suggesting one more 75bp hike this year, before peaking at 4.6% in '23. Unemployment set to rise to 4.4% with growth slowing. Core inflation still not at 2% target in '25.

Gotta get me one of those crystal balls. Sounds like we got a 0.75 and a 0.5 coming up for EOY.

These guys need to CHILLAX.

After the next .75 hike and the economy goes in the toilet and they finally get the 3-4 month delayed inflation data read they want…….they’ll be like “Oops“

 

[henchman24]

so everyone is surprised that they're increasing by exactly the number they forecast... just like they always do.

The surprise is an extra 25bps in the next two raises.

 

[traxila]

The future projections are 75bps and 50bps too... that is up from previous. So that is likely causing some trepidation in the market.

Frequently in these events though, first move is usually the wrong move.

Yeah, think FED is making sure no one decides the pivot date for them again. I do not blame them for that, but if the CPIs starts coming in weak, they could very well pivot on their own schedule or stand pat at a lower level.

Whatever. They can't keep interest rates 'high' for too long will balloon the budget deficits to the moon.