2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Here's something to consider, rather timely too.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yes he's on vacation. In his last 2 videos he stated he'd be back on starting today I believe.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Just sell all TSLA stock you hold, since you obviously have not done the proper research to justify your investment.
You bring up nothing that hasn't been debunked many times in the past.
Watch all Tesla Daily videos from the last four years, watch all Tesla investor days, listen to all quarterly earnings Q&A webcasts and you will know for a fact that there is no demand problem for Tesla vehicles. Not now or not in the foreseeable future. And IF Tesla would ever see demand dropping they have all the pricing power in the world to increase demand to match supply.
Taking one tweet from Troy and misrepresenting it here, not listening to the many responses from people with a lot more knowledge on Tesla than yourself, is ignorant at best, malicious at worst.
Emmanuel Rosner -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst
Yeah. Thank you so much. I have a question on your vehicle demand and then a quick follow-up on supply. First, on the demand side.
Are you seeing any sort of pressure in the order book or the pace of new order or any sort of like slowdown as a result of the pressures that the consumer is experiencing? Are you worried about it in light of your view of the risks to the economy that I think you expressed, Elon?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Well, right now, our problem is very much production. So we've long leads on -- as anyone can tell, if they order our car, you order Model Y, it'll arrive sometime next year. So this is clearly not an issue for many months for us. Our problem is overwhelmingly that of production.
So yeah.
Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
OK. Maybe just two things to add. Specifically on your question, are we seeing a macroeconomic impact on our demand? Not that I can tell. Maybe a little.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Some maybe.
Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
But it's not material. The second thing to Elon's point about backlogs, we have a very long runway with very long lead times here. I mean, certainly, the world is uncertain, and we'll have to see where things go with commodity prices, how quickly we're ramping production, what the state of the road looks like at some point next year. But the demand is not something we spend really any time talking about.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yeah. I think it's -- maybe just one thing worth mentioning the -- that there is surface between value for money and fundamental affordability because sometimes people say, "Well, if you got all this demand. Why don't you just raise the price to some -- double the price or something?" And this is usually expressed by somebody who's rich. But there's -- even if you rail value for money to infinity, if somebody does concerns, do not have enough money to buy it, even a product where the desirability is rail to infinity, they basically cannot buy it.
So, this is why you kind of just raise prices to some arbitrarily high level because you pass the affordability boundary and then the demand falls off a cliff. So, I do feel like we've raised our prices or we raise the price quite a few times. They're frankly at embarrassing levels. But we've also had a lot of supply chain and production trucks and as we've got crazy inflation.
So, I'm hopeful, this is not a promise or anything, but I'm hopeful that at some point, we can reduce the prices a little bit.
(...)
Toni Sacconaghi -- Bernstein -- Analyst
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I have two as well. In response to the question around demand, I think, Zach, you said maybe a little, and Elon, you said maybe some indication that you might see some pressure on demand.
And I'm wondering if that is really just speculation or whether there's any empirical data that you saw in the last month, whether it be cancellations or order lead times that led you to make that comment. I think anecdotally, if you squint, the lead times have gotten a little lower over the last four months in both China and the U.S. That's really the only visibility investors have. So I'm wondering if you could maybe elaborate on whether that's really just you're sort of anticipating there could be some impact because of high prices or whether they're something anecdotally or quantitatively that you could point to, please?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
No. I mean, I think we've said this now for many years, I know has proven true. Tesla does not have a demand problem, we have a production problem. And we've almost always had it's a very rare exception it's always been a production problem.
I think that will remain the case.
Toni Sacconaghi -- Bernstein -- Analyst
So there's a denominator and a numerator and like, you increase production?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yeah, absolutely. As we increase production, more demand is needed obviously.
Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
No, it's more just like you can't look at the backlog and state much about demand because we're doing a lot on the other side to change the production.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
But we're trying to make the backlog lower, not longer.
Unknown speaker
Building factories and building --
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
We don't want a long backlog. That's annoying. It'd be like go to a restaurant and you order a burger and you have to wait three hours and like, that's annoying. You want to get your burger right away.
Same with the car. So we want that lead times to reduce.
Toni Sacconaghi -- Bernstein -- Analyst
OK. Now I was just trying to follow up on the fact that you both said that maybe we're seeing demand be impacted a little bit, and that was the spirit of the question.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
We don't have like -- like because we see daily orders from around the world for our cars, it's actually -- it is like a mood barometer of people's confidence in the economy. But one can't read too much into it because things can vary a great deal from one day to the next. Consumer sentiment is all over the map. So it's -- manage price, frankly.
But we have so much excess demand. That is really just not an issue for us. It might be an issue for some other companies but it is not an issue for us.
Yeah. Thank you so much. I have a question on your vehicle demand and then a quick follow-up on supply. First, on the demand side.
Are you seeing any sort of pressure in the order book or the pace of new order or any sort of like slowdown as a result of the pressures that the consumer is experiencing? Are you worried about it in light of your view of the risks to the economy that I think you expressed, Elon?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Well, right now, our problem is very much production. So we've long leads on -- as anyone can tell, if they order our car, you order Model Y, it'll arrive sometime next year. So this is clearly not an issue for many months for us. Our problem is overwhelmingly that of production.
So yeah.
Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
OK. Maybe just two things to add. Specifically on your question, are we seeing a macroeconomic impact on our demand? Not that I can tell. Maybe a little.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Some maybe.
Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
But it's not material. The second thing to Elon's point about backlogs, we have a very long runway with very long lead times here. I mean, certainly, the world is uncertain, and we'll have to see where things go with commodity prices, how quickly we're ramping production, what the state of the road looks like at some point next year. But the demand is not something we spend really any time talking about.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yeah. I think it's -- maybe just one thing worth mentioning the -- that there is surface between value for money and fundamental affordability because sometimes people say, "Well, if you got all this demand. Why don't you just raise the price to some -- double the price or something?" And this is usually expressed by somebody who's rich. But there's -- even if you rail value for money to infinity, if somebody does concerns, do not have enough money to buy it, even a product where the desirability is rail to infinity, they basically cannot buy it.
So, this is why you kind of just raise prices to some arbitrarily high level because you pass the affordability boundary and then the demand falls off a cliff. So, I do feel like we've raised our prices or we raise the price quite a few times. They're frankly at embarrassing levels. But we've also had a lot of supply chain and production trucks and as we've got crazy inflation.
So, I'm hopeful, this is not a promise or anything, but I'm hopeful that at some point, we can reduce the prices a little bit.
(...)
Toni Sacconaghi -- Bernstein -- Analyst
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I have two as well. In response to the question around demand, I think, Zach, you said maybe a little, and Elon, you said maybe some indication that you might see some pressure on demand.
And I'm wondering if that is really just speculation or whether there's any empirical data that you saw in the last month, whether it be cancellations or order lead times that led you to make that comment. I think anecdotally, if you squint, the lead times have gotten a little lower over the last four months in both China and the U.S. That's really the only visibility investors have. So I'm wondering if you could maybe elaborate on whether that's really just you're sort of anticipating there could be some impact because of high prices or whether they're something anecdotally or quantitatively that you could point to, please?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
No. I mean, I think we've said this now for many years, I know has proven true. Tesla does not have a demand problem, we have a production problem. And we've almost always had it's a very rare exception it's always been a production problem.
I think that will remain the case.
Toni Sacconaghi -- Bernstein -- Analyst
So there's a denominator and a numerator and like, you increase production?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yeah, absolutely. As we increase production, more demand is needed obviously.
Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
No, it's more just like you can't look at the backlog and state much about demand because we're doing a lot on the other side to change the production.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
But we're trying to make the backlog lower, not longer.
Unknown speaker
Building factories and building --
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
We don't want a long backlog. That's annoying. It'd be like go to a restaurant and you order a burger and you have to wait three hours and like, that's annoying. You want to get your burger right away.
Same with the car. So we want that lead times to reduce.
Toni Sacconaghi -- Bernstein -- Analyst
OK. Now I was just trying to follow up on the fact that you both said that maybe we're seeing demand be impacted a little bit, and that was the spirit of the question.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
We don't have like -- like because we see daily orders from around the world for our cars, it's actually -- it is like a mood barometer of people's confidence in the economy. But one can't read too much into it because things can vary a great deal from one day to the next. Consumer sentiment is all over the map. So it's -- manage price, frankly.
But we have so much excess demand. That is really just not an issue for us. It might be an issue for some other companies but it is not an issue for us.
End of demand discussion. See you next quarter with a new account.
pz1975
Active Member
I’m having fun flashbacks of when we had a bird problem around here spouting the same narratives with the same care bear style. That was 15x ago…
Your Mom
Banned
Funny how he says TSLA investors listen to all arguments and don’t mock bear arguments yet that it precisely the opposite of what all of you are doing.
You’re all refusing to listen to Troy and being completely irrational. Weekly sales going down and order backlogs gone in China. If it’s not demand issues, then what is it? Give me one good explanation.
What would you do if you had an investment that was now worth ten times what you paid for it?
Assume that said investment is in the most profitable entity in it's primary industry?
Assume also that it does not sell in a majority of the world, and is still growing rapidly despite most 'competitors' shrinking.
Then consider that one of your primary information sources constantly presents both positive and negative information and incessantly argues about potential competition.
If that is "blindly investing and sticking your heading the sand" to you, it's quite likely that you need urgent opthamalogist and psychiatrist attention. After all you cannot see all the debunked negatives. You cannot see how paranoid many of us are about those ever-present risks.
As an aside you might want to check how many auto manufacturers have backlogs on every model they make? Pre-holiday Chinese sales still do not have large inventories wait to be sold for your 'China collapsing' Tesla. What is that?
If our heads are in the sand I hope it is very pure silica. That sells well too.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Perhaps you are unfamiliar with the adage, "When in doubt, zoom out"
Your arguments are based entirely upon Cherry Picking for the specific points that bolster it, without taking into account everything else that refutes it.
Take the Blue pill, and remain in the version of reality you are most comfortable with.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Go back several posts and you’ll find this was already explained for you.
Yes, it is an over-the-air software update, not a recall to service centers. As usual, the Reuters headline is misleading.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/TFZW5373QJLFVITYN2LM5QEUVU.jpg)
Tesla recalls nearly 1.1 million U.S. vehicles to update window reversing software
Tesla is recalling nearly 1.1 million U.S. vehicles because the window automatic reversal system may not react correctly after detecting an obstruction, increasing the risk of injury.
www.reuters.com
scubastevo80
Member
The thread is filled with uber-bulls who are more tied to the long-term Tesla thesis and less about the current valuation and what certain short term challenges may bring. For example, I personally will continue to have TSLA remain my largest holding, but I've started scaling it down slowly due to the sheer size of the company, elevated P of the P/E in this environment, and my personal views of what could (key word) happen if we have a global recession and higher interest rates in developed countries. The stock has also outperformed other companies I like over the last 2 months and I want to rotate into some of them.
Regarding the backlog, I think we need more data. This could be a reduction (to some degree) in actual demand, or it could just be the optics of what improved efficiency brings coupled with the time of the year. It's also one single input. My biggest concern is how the market discounts TSLA if they don't meet their 50% growth target. What would the discount be if it was 45% or 40%? To many of us, those growth rates are a good problem to have, but I feel the market is looking for a reason to haircut TSLA's multiple, so I'm personally trying to hedge that a bit. If we have a downturn in markets and TSLA is back around $250, I'd certainly look to overallocate again given the stock's risk/reward potential.
Tesla does not have a demand problem in China (or anywhere else right now) for the following reasons:
1) Giga Shanghai can simply increase exports to allocate production inventory
2) Tesla has huge room to incrementally lower pricing in China which, as I'm sure you know, would increase demand substantially
3) Demand rises and falls like a rollercoaster, so one month of lower demand is insignificant compared to the trend
4) The new China EV incentive kicks in after next week, this is very likely the reason for supply catching up with demand currently, and it will likely reverse very quickly
Tesla will easily sell every car produced for years to come yet, anyone who does not believe this has not done their homework. It would appear this is you "Your Mom".
Did not Tesla just complete a new factory in Shanghai? The current factory's output is approximately 650,00 per year. The new factory is rated at 450,000. Is it possible with all this new capacity that Tesla could have made a huge mistake by investing in the new factory? I don't think so. If I'm not mistaken, I believe a new version of the Y will be built in the new factor. (Please correct me, if I'm wrong). Perhaps they are clearing out the previous "old" tech.
Can't we all just:
1- Ignore
2- Report
3- stop feeding the troll
Thank-kew.
1- Ignore
2- Report
3- stop feeding the troll
Thank-kew.
Last edited:
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Good lord....what happened to not engaging with trolls?
Your Mom
Banned
TSLA bulls often criticize TSLA bears for looking backwards instead of forwards, but maybe the tides are turning.
I recommend you read your own post. Elon clearly used large order backlogs as evidence of good demand. That may have been true by end of Q2, but we're at end of Q3. Order backlogs are down immensely (Troy stated it dropped from 510K to ~300K over the quarter), so what Tesla's management said during Q2 earnings call about demand is irrelevant.
I agree with you. I will always thank TSLA for helping me reach millionaire status in my 20s.
That said, I have to be unbiased when I'm scrutinizing Tesla. I'm considering selling all my shares until we have further evidence that the China problem is demand-related or not. I don't think we'll going to be moving up for at least a few more years.
Wouldn't that make Tesla stock around $30?
That is why you are getting laughed at!
A temporary slowdown in China does not mean that Tesla has a demand problem, not even close..
Mom, why you embarassing yourself in front of my friends. Even I have you on ignore.
Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, a Wall Street analyst covering Tesla, sent a note to clients this week to warn them not to read the wait times dropping as demand dropping:
(source is Elektrek Tesla’s (TSLA) sudden drop in wait times doesn't mean demand for EVs is dropping)
Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, a Wall Street analyst covering Tesla, sent a note to clients this week to warn them not to read the wait times dropping as demand dropping:
He added in the note:
(source is Elektrek Tesla’s (TSLA) sudden drop in wait times doesn't mean demand for EVs is dropping)
Your Mom
Banned
It could be that Tesla overestimated demand when they approved the expansion. It's clear that at the end of Q2, Tesla management was expecting unlimited demand to continue. Now at end of Q3, it seems demand isn't unlimited.
What if Troy is the real care bear?
He is always low balling the delivery estimates towards the end of each quarter, TSLAQ amplifies his lowball estimates and market makers go to work dropping TSLA at the end of each quarter .
Since Q3 deliveries are going to be extremely good compared to previous quarters, the doom and gloom has shifted to demand issues .
Is it me or does anyone else see the pattern here?
He is always low balling the delivery estimates towards the end of each quarter, TSLAQ amplifies his lowball estimates and market makers go to work dropping TSLA at the end of each quarter .
Since Q3 deliveries are going to be extremely good compared to previous quarters, the doom and gloom has shifted to demand issues .
Is it me or does anyone else see the pattern here?
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