This talking point again? Is it that time of the year already?
This talking point again? Is it that time of the
FTFY
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This talking point again? Is it that time of the
FTFY
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Newsflash!
Tesla's business plan is to increase production while dropping prices to continually increase demand to meet supply. This means Tesla is NOWHERE NEAR hitting the limits of their demand.
Sheesh, sometimes I think my browser had a hiccup and I was re-directed to Comedy Central.
Trolls like that should be insta-banned IMO.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
But you are biased. Your bias is you are trying to extrapolate and make conclusions from a SINGLE datapoint - one that isn't verified.
1) We all know that Tesla batches China deliveries at the end of the quarter (shortest logistics delivery - load things on ships the first 2 months of the quarter for export, last month deliver locally, shipping via land to furthest distance in the first 2 weeks, and closer to Shanghai the last 2 weeks).
2) We KNOW that there is a new incentive beginning Oct 1 for Chinese buyer from the CCCP. It is perfectly reasonable to expect a significant number of buyers are going to push their delivery dates to Oct to take advantage of that. Tesla put out something, a small incentive, to counter that, but the Asian mindset is all about "what discount can you give me" - MANY customers will wait for the gov incentive since they know about it.
3) Your BYD argument is flawed for 2 reasons - A) they bundle hybrids in their "EV" numbers, which is just BS and not an apples to apples comparison, and B) their price point is like 1/3 that of Tesla. They are NOT the same market segment.
4) EVEN IF you are correct (and most here say the data supports you are NOT) - Shanghai is Tesla's proclaimed export hub. They could literally not sell a SINGLE car in China, and still run that factory at it's max run rate of 1mil+ cars per year for export.
TL;DR - THERE IS NO DEMAND PROBLEM. There is a comprehension problem on your end. You are a SPECULATOR, not an INVESTOR. Investors have time horizons much longer than a few weeks out.
Either that, or you are GoJo's latest paid shill trying to stir up trouble.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Seems as if waiting lists aren't getting longer. Perhaps Tesla has found the right balance between massive, UNFAIRLY FAT profits and actually reducing demand for its cars.
Now, as factory output increases, they can start to pull demand levers. (Not talking about advertising... ewwww!!!) Would be interesting to see a $500 cut in sales price on each vehicle per month. Yes, this will contribute a hit to margin, but will have no effect on final profit figures which would still be growing. Slowly increasing the speed of the blender that the "legacy auto frog" is floating in. Even while seeing their market share getting kicked in the ass, Legacy Auto probably looks at Model Y's current starting price of $66,000 and feels some kind of relief.
It's reasonable that demand for the existing four models will fall by a small amount when Cybertruck starts to ship. (the same logic that applied when Model X caused a drop in demand for Model S. Or when Model 3 caused a drop in demand for the first two. And so on. Tesla Semi will not cause a drop in demand for existing models
)
Thus, when Cybertruck starts to ship, sales prices for the existing 4 models could get an additional trim, on top of any other trims that are going on - if Tesla cares about the lengths of its reservation lists... which I reckon it does
Now, as factory output increases, they can start to pull demand levers. (Not talking about advertising... ewwww!!!) Would be interesting to see a $500 cut in sales price on each vehicle per month. Yes, this will contribute a hit to margin, but will have no effect on final profit figures which would still be growing. Slowly increasing the speed of the blender that the "legacy auto frog" is floating in. Even while seeing their market share getting kicked in the ass, Legacy Auto probably looks at Model Y's current starting price of $66,000 and feels some kind of relief.
It's reasonable that demand for the existing four models will fall by a small amount when Cybertruck starts to ship. (the same logic that applied when Model X caused a drop in demand for Model S. Or when Model 3 caused a drop in demand for the first two. And so on. Tesla Semi will not cause a drop in demand for existing models
)Thus, when Cybertruck starts to ship, sales prices for the existing 4 models could get an additional trim, on top of any other trims that are going on - if Tesla cares about the lengths of its reservation lists... which I reckon it does
Last edited:
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, mongo is right on this one. NHTSA has a very specific definition for "recall". That definition hasn't evolved to split out "recalls" that can be handled OTA vs. in-person, so everything in both groups gets the recall moniker.
China may have some softness in demand, but there are a lot of headwinds at a macro level that are more likely the source (Chinese property bubble looks ready to burst). Tesla will probably have to drop some prices and continue to export from Shanghai (which we have known as the plan), but plenty of demand levers to pull and infrastructure built in to ease the issue. If softness really exists, I'd expect one quarter to have some inventory issues that show up.
11k looks like it will be the key in this current fight with the bears in the Nasdaq. You could probably get more specific in the 11,025-11,050 range. If support isn't there , we are likely looking at a re-test of June lows. If support holds, seems like a good chance we close around 11,400 tomorrow and then could test jumping back above the ~11,700 level next week.
11k looks like it will be the key in this current fight with the bears in the Nasdaq. You could probably get more specific in the 11,025-11,050 range. If support isn't there , we are likely looking at a re-test of June lows. If support holds, seems like a good chance we close around 11,400 tomorrow and then could test jumping back above the ~11,700 level next week.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
OK, we're through at least one phase of today's "dark side" efforts. WTI/Brent oil futures spiked as much as 3.5% just since 9:30 with WTI nearing $86. It's now fully reversed and the downward trajectory has been reengaged. WTI drifting back below $83. That's a lotta action in 45 minutes. Nice to see the traders get smacked in the face and easily beat down.
Hopefully we see the same thing from those behind our traditional TSLA MMD. They're trying to hold $294-297. I assume this is algos trying to hold $300-301.67 tomorrow for max pain. Lets see how this battle goes!
Surprised to see the wider markets doing so relatively well this morning. I think that speaks to the opinion we're already quite low with all this Fed action priced in, or at least appreciated as the "right move".
Hopefully we see the same thing from those behind our traditional TSLA MMD. They're trying to hold $294-297. I assume this is algos trying to hold $300-301.67 tomorrow for max pain. Lets see how this battle goes!
Surprised to see the wider markets doing so relatively well this morning. I think that speaks to the opinion we're already quite low with all this Fed action priced in, or at least appreciated as the "right move".
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Except the following FACTS:
1) the US Gov is going to be PAYING Tesla $45/kwh of battery capacity in the USA for cars sold in the USA. Some here have estimated that is 1.5-2B/yr in incentives, not counting the buyer incentive of $7500/car.
2) Tesla has effectively ZERO debt. They will weather a recession FAR FAR better than most companies because they don't have to go beg for money. Literally, they are a money-printing machine.
3) Many states and national governments have MANDATED EV sales by the 2030s. That's a demand lever that has been pulled by other parties in favor of Tesla. And it favors Tesla more than anyone else because Tesla has used the past decade to put in place the capacity to build millions of EVs per year. No one else has that in place.
I think demand for Model Y in China is 5M+ vehicles per year in 2023 based on the incredible demand for passenger vehicles. Tesla has so much margin built in, that even if competition starts to eat away at demand, they can lower the price **OR** ship cars to other parts of the world.
>> sigh <<
So much troll feeding. Some of the replies are uplifting, I must admit.
So much troll feeding. Some of the replies are uplifting, I must admit.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So there's the
I repete: shortz r so predictable.
Cheers to the Longs!
Last edited:
The Accountant
Active Member
Tesla - The Envy of the Auto Industry.
Tesla will grow gross profit per car from $10.1k in Q1 2021 to an estimated $16.9k in Q3 2022.
Profits exclude regulatory credits and leased vehicles.
Dip in Q2 2022 due to Shanghai lockdown.
Tesla will grow gross profit per car from $10.1k in Q1 2021 to an estimated $16.9k in Q3 2022.
Profits exclude regulatory credits and leased vehicles.
Dip in Q2 2022 due to Shanghai lockdown.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Sunrun, SolarEdge, and TSLA all have the same chart today. Especially Sunrun, it's literally the exact chart. Wake me up when this MMD gets bought!
Good lord, this times 100. This is the first time I put someone on ignore, but its not helping one bit when every post is a response to something
Last edited:
6 trading days left until P&D numbers come out, but as predicted, the shorts are using Macros to play chicken and keep the SP down as long as possible. A .75 bp increase in the US has negligible impact on Tesla's massive EPS growth this year and next year, and yet we are red two days in a row to a pre-split 870. (Sigh...)
TSLA is in the process of tumbling down a cliff at the moment as it performs worse and worse against its beta with every passing moment. TSLA had a nice run of strength there but todays trading action really breaks all of the momentum and uptrend lines. Prepare some significant underperformance
So I doubt you’ll get woken up until this time next week
Exactly. I am very interested in listening to valid arguments against my position. But I've learned on Twitter to just instantly block people that spew non-sense. They are either very dumb, or have an agenda. Your Mom falls into one of those two categories and should be banned at this point.
Dear Mom,
I bought two Jan 25 290 calls. I also closed Oct 21 CC's for some decent gains.
as Dad used to say - short term manipulation is good for long term gains. I wish dad was still alive - I miss him
I bought two Jan 25 290 calls
. I also closed Oct 21 CC's for some decent gains.as Dad used to say - short term manipulation is good for long term gains. I wish dad was still alive - I miss him
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
