Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

I think even the WS analysts haven't fully digested this report yet. In 6 months, when things are starting to hit Tesla's bottom line from the battery subsidies, I expect a lot of price target upgrades.

Yeah they are bad at math

 

[larmor]

Yeah they are bad at math

They are very good at math. They are good at what they do-- ignore the obvious profit train powered by increasing margins in the auto industry which is hard to do. And soon to come lithium extraction, otherwise known as margins equal to software companies.

 

[lascavarian]

Been doing a little bottom fishing for some 2025 leaps lately just in case.

Just in case happens sometimes.

 

[bkp_duke]

Been doing a little bottom fishing for some 2025 leaps lately just in case.

Just in case happens sometimes.

I'll be making some of those purchases tomorrow. Needed to wait on funds to settle.

You going ITM, ATM, or OTM?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'll be making some of those purchases tomorrow. Needed to wait on funds to settle.

Nice. Good to know we'll definitely be at $400 before the market opens.

 

[15Peter20]

So do we have theory about the huge underperformance today?

The non-recall recall?
Troy tweets about China deliveries?
The weather is chilly in Chicago?

Your mom?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Check out this wacky chart for 10/7 options expiration. Did we talk about this 40k of volume at $330c?

 

[SmokyPeat]

I'll be making some of those purchases tomorrow. Needed to wait on funds to settle.

You going ITM, ATM, or OTM?

No idea what lascavarian is planning, but that far out in time, I'm looking at calls anywhere from $30-250 OTM.

 

[GOVA]

Apparently, there are old airports filled to the brim with unfinished Merc cars in Germania.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Check out this wacky chart for 10/7 options expiration. Did we talk about this 40k of volume at $330c?

View attachment 855850

Someone’s going to be extremely disappointed if TSLA doesn’t rally hard off of P/D numbers

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Someone’s going to be extremely disappointed if TSLA doesn’t rally hard off of P/D numbers

About half of those calls are mine. You know how I roll!

 

[EVCollies]

In a post I made a couple days ago, the weekly registration numbers as of Sept 18th totaled about 44k. That meant to hit 100k, they need to do 56k in the final two weeks of Sept. If Tesla China follows the same pattern as Tesla US does in its delivery logistics to make sure all production is delivered, then the final two weeks of the quarter will see 25-30% of all deliveries for the quarter. That’s because in the final two weeks of deliveries, you have vehicles being delivered across the entire United States. Vehicles that had been in transit to the East Coast, Midwest have reached their destination points at the same time more recent production is being delivered on the West Coast. And then finally in the last week of the quarter, California gets flooded with deliveries. If you apply that to China, then 56k in the final two weeks is entirely possible.

Bare in mind, these weekly numbers are not official number and someone should probably go into that persons tweet history and line up if the weekly registration numbers actually are confirmed when the official CPCA numbers come out.

Is it Bare In Mind Or Bear In Mind? Which is correct?​

"The phrase is correctly written “bear in mind,” though many, many people confuse it with “bare in mind.” The reason for the confusion isn’t very clear, except perhaps that many of us associate “bear” with the ursine mammal, and can’t understand why you would want a “bear” in your mind to represent remembering something.

You can bear a cost, bear a responsibility, bear a child, and bear an emotion. A tree can bear fruit. You can bear yourself with poise, or bear left to change direction."

I know, OT, OT, OT...

 

[ZeApelido]

Nice Morgan Stanley note on the advantages the IRA bill gives Tesla.

Spoiler: page 1

Spoiler: page 2

"For the first time since its 2010 IPO, $TSLA may soon find itself as a consensus 'long' in the institutional investor community. This has never happened before"

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Nice Morgan Stanley note on the advantages the IRA bill gives Tesla.

Spoiler: page 1

View attachment 855866

Spoiler: page 2

View attachment 855867

"For the first time since its 2010 IPO, $TSLA may soon find itself as a consensus 'long' in the institutional investor community. This has never happened before"

Morgan Stanley continuing its tradition of putting out a bullish note while at the same time having a laughably low EPS for the near term and far out (2023-2025) which results in no PT change.

Whole lot of nothing burger if ya ask me. Though I’m sure we’ll finally get a PT after Q3 earnings when they get called out for their laughable EPS estimates

 

[lascavarian]

I'll be making some of those purchases tomorrow. Needed to wait on funds to settle.

You going ITM, ATM, or OTM?

First, YMMV, I am a not very experienced but this has worked in the past for me. I tend to go far OTM and my ”thesis“ is that 2025 will be past a few speed bumps that might show up in 23 & early 24. There is not a lot of volume so getting the price you want can be the largest challenge. Have fun!

 

[Electroman]

I was reading this article on a proposed tunnel between Germany and Denmark under the sea, and this project apparently has been on the table for over a decade before the construction is getting underway now.

Denmark and Germany now building the world's longest immersed tunnel

Descending up to 40 meters beneath the Baltic Sea, the world's longest immersed tunnel will link Denmark and Germany, slashing journey times between the two countries when it opens in 2029.

www.cnn.com

And this caught my attention:

While the process completed smoothly on the Danish side, in Germany a number of organizations -- including ferry companies, environmental groups and local municipalities -- appealed against the approval of the project over claims of unfair competition or environmental and noise concerns.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I was reading this article on a proposed tunnel between Germany and Denmark under the sea, and this project apparently has been on the table for over a decade before the construction is getting underway now.

And this caught my attention:

Denmark and Germany now building the world's longest immersed tunnel

Descending up to 40 meters beneath the Baltic Sea, the world's longest immersed tunnel will link Denmark and Germany, slashing journey times between the two countries when it opens in 2029.

www.cnn.com

While the process completed smoothly on the Danish side, in Germany a number of organizations -- including ferry companies, environmental groups and local municipalities -- appealed against the approval of the project over claims of unfair competition or environmental and noise concerns.

Hmm, I wonder which organizations complained about which problem. :/

 

[Bet TSLA]

Rob Maurer is back. New YouTube video is up.

 

[Paul_SF]

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Rob Maurer is back. New YouTube video is up.

He has a good part in the video about the China numbers and puts them into some context. Basically he's not worried, but something to keep an eye on just in case.