Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

GM today:

1. Cutting losses on BEV Production
2. Realizing a lack of battery supply
3. Production 5 yrs out difficult to price
4. Not enough chips for all the sub-systems
5. It's not ready yet
6. Who can afford one now?
7. All the Above

GM shuts down Hummer EV reservations

With over 90,000 reservations and what GMC is calling "incredible demand," the automaker is closing their order books for the Hummer EV.

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[SmokyPeat]

Europe’s renewable resources are greatly inferior to the US. Average US capacity factor for solar is 23% compared with 10-12% for Europe outside of Spain, where it’s ~20%. It also doesn’t help that energy demand is inversely correlated to solar production. In wind, US achieves capacity factors onshore that Europe does offshore, and onshore is about 2x cheaper. Wind is largely inferior overall to solar because of medium-term variability, basing your grid on wind would require a lot more overbuilding and storage than solar.

All in all, you can expect a renewable investment in the US to produce ~double the electricity while requiring less backup and storage than in Europe.

The solar capacity factor of the US would be much lower if you arbitrarily decided to exclude the Southwest as well. Turkey has quite good solar resource too, and is generally considered a European member these days. North Africa has amazing solar resource. Instead of dumping billions on Nat gas pipelines to Russia, Europe should be building HVDC and solar infrastructure into Spain, Turkey, and N. Africa.

 

[henchman24]

And 10,800 has broken... we're very likely to re-test June lows.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And 10,800 has broken... we're very likely to re-test June lows.

S&P already broke its June lows just now

 

[henchman24]

S&P already broke its June lows just now

Dow broke it earlier today too.

 

[ZachF]

The solar capacity factor of the US would be much lower if you arbitrarily decided to exclude the Southwest as well. Turkey has quite good solar resource too, and is generally considered a European member these days. North Africa has amazing solar resource. Instead of dumping billions on Nat gas pipelines to Russia, Europe should be building HVDC and solar infrastructure into Spain, Turkey, and N. Africa.

The northern US still gets 14-16%.

The desert SW is where most capacity will be built, the average monthly output graph for west Texas is literally flat with ~25% CF... Perfect for industrial applications.

People forget how far north Europe is… the south of France is as far north as Vermont.

Here is average capacity factor by country for the last 5 years:

29.3% Chile
26.8% United Arab Emirates
23.4% Israel
22.3% United States
22.1% Mexico
20.7% Spain
19.5% Turkey
19.3% Brazil
19.0% Australia
18.7% Portugal
17.8% India
17.2% Greece
16.1% South Korea
15.2% Canada
15.0% Philippines
14.5% Romania
13.5% Taiwan
13.3% Italy
13.3% Japan
13.2% China
12.8% France
11.7% Austria
11.1% Belgium
10.8% United Kingdom
10.7% Switzerland
10.6% Germany

 

[TheTalkingMule]

@TheTalkingMule

$8 a gallon gas? RBC energy guru on why Americans should brace for higher oil prices

Any U.S. consumers who think $5-a-gallon gasoline is a thing of the past might want to listen to what Helima Croft has to say.

www.marketwatch.com

Lol ....not a chance. Helima is an oil trader, so it's not surprising to see this kind of headline purchased today.

The crude market has priced in a compete removal of Russian exports and an increase in total demand. Neither of those are happening and now have almost no chance of happening in the future.

This oil trade has been like one massive FUD campaign and Powell just ended it IMO.

This is the reality of things:

Despite weak crude oil imports, China keeps building stockpiles

One of the features of the crude oil market this year has been China's weak imports and faltering exports of refined fuels.

www.reuters.com

The demand outlook is incredibly weak, just when all players want to bring production back to precovid levels.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Dow broke it earlier today too.

It has been kinda interesting that the nasdaq is holding up against the S&P. At least when it comes to %’s. And then when I look at high growth/risk names in my watchlist, ALL of them are significantly outperforming the Nasdaq/S&P.

And on the flip side, value/safe/dividend stocks are dumping hard

So could be a ray of hope in this red day

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Can't believe the SEC hasn't halted $TSLA from trading yet!!!

/s

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The northern US still gets 14-16%.

The desert SW is where most capacity will be built, the average monthly output graph for west Texas is literally flat with ~25% CF... Perfect for industrial applications.

People forget how far north Europe is… the south of France is as far north Vermont.

Here is average capacity factor by country for the last 5 years:

29.3% Chile
26.8% United Arab Emirates
23.4% Israel
22.3% United States
22.1% Mexico
20.7% Spain
19.5% Turkey
19.3% Brazil
19.0% Australia
18.7% Portugal
17.8% India
17.2% Greece
16.1% South Korea
15.2% Canada
15.0% Philippines
14.5% Romania
13.5% Taiwan
13.3% Italy
13.3% Japan
13.2% China
12.8% France
11.7% Austria
11.1% Belgium
10.8% United Kingdom
10.7% Switzerland
10.6% Germany

Germany, the single worst on your list, already went from 0% to 9% solar since 2007. And that was with massive cost headwinds 5x what they are today.

Europe will have no problem getting to 60% renewables + storage......IF......THEY.....WANT.....TO.

Very big "if". There's obviously a lot of money and politics at play.

 

[elasalle]

I more week without any major issues for Tesla for the whole quarter

7 days AI day
9 days Q3 Prod numbers

Nov mid-term votes depend on taming of inflation, and bump back in people's 401K accounts no

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is (was) the economy running on pumped up 401Ks? Spending habits of the retired middle class are fairly immune to interest rate hikes. Instead, they were out buying Tesla's and doing home improvements. Is this partly why inflation is not so easy to tame? Spending is coming from a different class, and transition to EVs is seen as a must-have solution... which keeps pumping up the economy and furthering inflation.

Do you know of anyone that cancelled a reservation because of the market action recently?

I sure hope ordering lead time that Rob mentioned yesterday is from production ramps. We need numbers!!!

 

[Discoducky]

It has been kinda interesting that the nasdaq is holding up against the S&P. At least when it comes to %’s. And then when I look at high growth/risk names in my watchlist, ALL of them are significantly outperforming the Nasdaq/S&P.

And on the flip side, value/safe/dividend stocks are dumping hard

So could be a ray of hope in this red day

Nice to see a bounce off of SPY $365, in fact, it looks like all macro's bounced around 1230 Eastern

 

[Rammstein]

Rate hike's...double bottoms....IRA repeals....phhtt.....I'm rage buying.

For me it’s rage lifting cause I’m already all in Tsla. On the bright side I’m 10-20% stronger this month. I highly recommend taking frustrations out at the gym!

I think Tesla should put gyms at superchargers. Think of the moat! There related the post to Tsla.

 

[henchman24]

Nice to see a bounce off of SPY $365, in fact, it looks like all macro's bounced around 1230 Eastern

Market is showing some support at these levels as they'd indicate a double bottom. It will re-test at some point either today or early next week, and how it holds (or doesn't) will likely set the course for the next couple weeks.

 

[SmokyPeat]

The northern US still gets 14-16%.

The desert SW is where most capacity will be built, the average monthly output graph for west Texas is literally flat with ~25% CF... Perfect for industrial applications.

People forget how far north Europe is… the south of France is as far north as Vermont.

Here is average capacity factor by country for the last 5 years:

29.3% Chile
26.8% United Arab Emirates
23.4% Israel
22.3% United States
22.1% Mexico
20.7% Spain
19.5% Turkey
19.3% Brazil
19.0% Australia
18.7% Portugal
17.8% India
17.2% Greece
16.1% South Korea
15.2% Canada
15.0% Philippines
14.5% Romania
13.5% Taiwan
13.3% Italy
13.3% Japan
13.2% China
12.8% France
11.7% Austria
11.1% Belgium
10.8% United Kingdom
10.7% Switzerland
10.6% Germany

Which is exactly why extensive HVDC infrastructure projects make so much sense for Europe. The $11B+ they wasted on Nordstream 2 probably seemed like a bargain until you factor in psychotic despots and climate change. Time to shift gears.

 

[Ogre]

Is (was) the economy running on pumped up 401Ks? Spending habits of the retired middle class are fairly immune to interest rate hikes. Instead, they were out buying Tesla's and doing home improvements. Is this partly why inflation is not so easy to tame? Spending is coming from a different class, and transition to EVs is seen as a must-have solution... which keeps pumping up the economy and furthering inflation.

Do you know of anyone that cancelled a reservation because of the market action recently?

I sure hope ordering lead time that Rob mentioned yesterday is from production ramps. We need numbers!!!

IRA rebates will likely offset the extra cost of the rising interest rates after the first of the year. Unless your car is coming in the next couple months, you are in the clear. Shorter term it might be a problem.

 

[ZachF]

Germany, the single worst on your list, already went from 0% to 9% solar since 2007. And that was with massive cost headwinds 5x what they are today.

Europe will have no problem getting to 60% renewables + storage......IF......THEY.....WANT.....TO.

Very big "if". There's obviously a lot of money and politics at play.

My argument is not that it won’t happen… it certainly will. My argument is that Europe will still have the highest energy costs when it does because it will take more solar panels, windmills, and batteries to produce the same amount of power than just about every other major economic zone. More than the US, more than China, more than India, Brazil, Africa, the ME, Japan & Korea, Australia…. On and on.

Europe unfortunately has worse wind and solar resources than just about everywhere else in the world.

 

[ZachF]

Which is exactly why extensive HVDC infrastructure projects make so much sense for Europe. The $11B+ they wasted on Nordstream 2 probably seemed like a bargain until you factor in psychotic despots and climate change. Time to shift gears.

I agree. Europe should be building massive amounts of HVDC to Spain starting yesterday.

 

[2daMoon]

... Note that we will comfortably close the week back in the wedge, and the 1 year chart will reflect that end-of-week close going forward. ...

View attachment 856093

I like to believe I am not alone in my fervent anticipation of being on the receiving end of a big upwardly yanking wedgie by New Year's Day.

Just sayin'