Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

The solar capacity factor of the US would be much lower if you arbitrarily decided to exclude the Southwest as well. Turkey has quite good solar resource too, and is generally considered a European member these days. North Africa has amazing solar resource. Instead of dumping billions on Nat gas pipelines to Russia, Europe should be building HVDC and solar infrastructure into Spain, Turkey, and N. Africa.

Turkey EU membership has been successfully sabotaged by interested players in the last few years. I guess this could be one explanation why.

 

[SOULPEDL]

For me it’s rage lifting cause I’m already all in Tsla. On the bright side I’m 10-20% stronger this month. I highly recommend taking frustrations out at the gym!

I think Tsla should put gyms at superchargers. Think of the moat! There related the post to Tsla.

I'm always stretching around the chargers. They should add grips and pegs to help out with that. The curbs are really helpful there.

 

[Gigapress]

The solar capacity factor of the US would be much lower if you arbitrarily decided to exclude the Southwest as well. Turkey has quite good solar resource too, and is generally considered a European member these days. North Africa has amazing solar resource. Instead of dumping billions on Nat gas pipelines to Russia, Europe should be building HVDC and solar infrastructure into Spain, Turkey, and N. Africa.

As the price of solar continues to drop worldwide, increasingly the overall electricity cost structure is determined by grid costs.

In the USA, the average transmission cost is around $30/MWh. The average cost of installing utility-scale solar farms happens to be around $30/MWh too, but this is dropping rapidly while grid costs are creeping upward. In the future at $10/MWh solar cost, which we're on track for hitting about 10 years from now, the traditional grid will be 75% of the total price of electricity. If solar gets to $3/MWh, then grid costs are 90% of the total. At a certain point more and more of solar power production will be situated closer to the load to delete as much of the grid costs as possible.

Energy-intensive industry will concentrate in regions with high insolation. Europe won't be a beneficiary of this boom. However, all other uses of electricity will become increasingly localized, irrespective of local insolation.

There is no fundamental reason why we need to have a traditional grid with high voltage lines, transformers, substations, administrative bureaucracy, wildfire risk, storm risk, terrorism & cybersecurity risk, etc. Having this type of electricity distribution apparatus has been the optimal design because of the nature of legacy power plant technology, but it won't be with solar because solar is the only type of power source that can be practically scaled down to small installations and put in the middle of cities and towns, while being integrated into buildings and serving dual purpose as the roofing exterior material.

This is hugely bullish for Solar Roof in my opinion, because if so then the importance of wind and utility-scale solar will diminish while putting solar on buildings will be the most economical option.

 

[ZachF]

Turkey EU membership has been successfully sabotaged by interested players in the last few years. I guess this could be one explanation why.

Certainly the Algerians and maybe the Turks will be able to *produce* solar power for a lower cost than Spain, but they won’t likely *sell* it to them for a lower price IMHO.

 

[petit_bateau]

Lol....just flipped on Bloomberg to a live shot from London outside Parliament. Some random guy in the background clear as day yells out, "F*** the Tories!"

Hilarious. Total trainwreck in the UK.

GBP down to $1.0925

Londoners making over £1M/yr get a £40k tax cut under this new proposed budget. Those making £150k or more cuts a modest tax cut. Everyone else......safety net cuts & get back to work.

Welcome to Brexit. Have a nice day.

 

[ZachF]

As the price of solar continues to drop worldwide, increasingly the overall electricity cost structure is determined by grid costs.

In the USA, the average transmission cost is around $30/MWh. The average cost of installing utility-scale solar farms happens to be around $30/MWh too, but this is dropping rapidly while grid costs are creeping upward. In the future at $10/MWh solar cost, which we're on track for hitting about 10 years from now, the traditional grid will be 75% of the total price of electricity. If solar gets to $3/MWh, then grid costs are 90% of the total. At a certain point more and more of solar power production will be situated closer to the load to delete as much of the grid costs as possible.

Energy-intensive industry will concentrate in regions with high insolation. Europe won't be a beneficiary of this boom. However, all other uses of electricity will become increasingly localized, irrespective of local insolation.

Precisely.

This is why Texas IMHO will be the heart of American industry in the future too. Cheap gas, Cheap solar, cheap wind, and lots of land.

 

[SOULPEDL]

IRA rebates will likely offset the extra cost of the rising interest rates after the first of the year. Unless your car is coming in the next couple months, you are in the clear. Shorter term it might be a problem.

Lol, I forgot about the rebates. Wouldn't that alone explain the reduced wait times? I'm more bullish now for 50 more chairs!

Scary... but my conclusion is that Tesla and most things sustainable will weather the storm - so to speak.

 

[petit_bateau]

I agree. Europe should be building massive amounts of HVDC to Spain starting yesterday.

If you look at the map you will realise that France blocks access to Spain. This is basically why it hasn't already happened. Same issue with road networks, rail networks, pipeline networks as well as this with electric networks.

There is also the big issue of the manufacturing capacity constraints for both HVAC and HVDC . When I visit the relevant factories they show me their expansion plans and order books, and costs, and believe me it is scary. The only country doing sensible strategic industrial strategy in this area is China.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Costco beat.

Didn't seem to matter:

26

Costco Wholesale Corporation

COST

0.683488

468.39

-18.78

(-3.85%)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Anyone but me not buying this BS??

WSJ News Exclusive | Ford’s Latest Supply-Chain Problem: a Shortage of Blue Oval Badges

The car company has run into supply constraints with the brand-name badges and the nameplates that specify the model, important identifiers for the auto maker’s products.

www.wsj.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

For me it’s rage lifting cause I’m already all in Tsla. On the bright side I’m 10-20% stronger this month. I highly recommend taking frustrations out at the gym!

I think Tesla should put gyms at superchargers. Think of the moat! There related the post to Tsla.

Obviously the gym equipment would directly charge the EVs? I'd ride a Tesla stationary bike on my way home from work to skip traffic and get it out of the way.

Not that I "go to work" or anything. Just speaking figuratively.

 

[Nocturnal]

Is (was) the economy running on pumped up 401Ks? Spending habits of the retired middle class are fairly immune to interest rate hikes. Instead, they were out buying Tesla's and doing home improvements. Is this partly why inflation is not so easy to tame? Spending is coming from a different class, and transition to EVs is seen as a must-have solution... which keeps pumping up the economy and furthering inflation.

Do you know of anyone that cancelled a reservation because of the market action recently?

I sure hope ordering lead time that Rob mentioned yesterday is from production ramps. We need numbers!!!

Still major supply issues. Just look at all the vehicles waiting on stupid things like chips or blue oval badges.

 

[Captkerosene]

It is a well known ploy for someone to make intentionally incorrect, yet authoritative sounding, postings on an Internet forum in order to get others to do their homework for them. I've been messing with online forums since Usenet news in the 1980s. Have seen it many times. Yet even I fall for the ruse occasionally. Best to just rate the post with a "laugh" emoji, or nothing at all, and move on.

When I started researching TSLA I had at least a dozen areas of concern I needed to overcome before making an investment. Nothing wrong with poking the bear a little to spark a conversation on a specific topic. I do not support making "intentionally incorrect" statements.

There are too many low quality posts on this board for someone to reasonably go back and review the last several years. (Feature not fault.) We should try to accommodate those who are just starting their TSLA journey.

The laugh emoji should be used to indicate humor ... not contempt.

Personally, I found the review of China demand questions timely and informative.

 

[bkp_duke]

Just watched the Jay Leno interview. Classic Elon.

I have a new fav quote now:
"Patents are for the weak" - Elon Musk

 

[woodisgood]

Thought I was being a tad stingy but my 2025 LEAP bids eventually filled. Just nibbles as usually I’m too early on my buys, so trying to exercise some patience.

 

[ammulder]

GM today:

1. Cutting losses on BEV Production
2. Realizing a lack of battery supply
3. Production 5 yrs out difficult to price
4. Not enough chips for all the sub-systems
5. It's not ready yet
6. Who can afford one now?
7. All the Above

GM shuts down Hummer EV reservations

With over 90,000 reservations and what GMC is calling "incredible demand," the automaker is closing their order books for the Hummer EV.

driveteslacanada.ca

It was all right there in the "June production was 12 units a day"

So yeah, the "competition" is coming with their vast array of factories and years of manufacturing experience...

 

[Cobbler]

Just watched the Jay Leno interview. Classic Elon.

I have a new fav quote now:
"Patents are for the weak" - Elon Musk

https://insights.greyb.com/tesla-patents/

 

[SmokyPeat]

As the price of solar continues to drop worldwide, increasingly the overall electricity cost structure is determined by grid costs.

In the USA, the average transmission cost is around $30/MWh. The average cost of installing utility-scale solar farms happens to be around $30/MWh too, but this is dropping rapidly while grid costs are creeping upward. In the future at $10/MWh solar cost, which we're on track for hitting about 10 years from now, the traditional grid will be 75% of the total price of electricity. If solar gets to $3/MWh, then grid costs are 90% of the total. At a certain point more and more of solar power production will be situated closer to the load to delete as much of the grid costs as possible.

Energy-intensive industry will concentrate in regions with high insolation. Europe won't be a beneficiary of this boom. However, all other uses of electricity will become increasingly localized, irrespective of local insolation.m

There is no fundamental reason why we need to have a traditional grid with high voltage lines, transformers, substations, administrative bureaucracy, wildfire risk, storm risk, terrorism & cybersecurity risk, etc. Having this type of electricity distribution apparatus has been the optimal design because of the nature of legacy power plant technology, but it won't be with solar because solar is the only type of power source that can be practically scaled down to small installations and put in the middle of cities and towns, while being integrated into buildings and serving dual purpose as the roofing exterior material.

This is hugely bullish for Solar Roof in my opinion, because if so then the importance of wind and utility-scale solar will diminish while putting solar on buildings will be the most economical option.

The most fundamental reason I can think of for building the HVDC infrastructure now is that Europe needs the energy now. They can't afford to wait for solar installations to come down to $10 or $3/MWh so that interconnected power grids aren't necessary. There's also some urgency related to anthropogenic climate change.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any thoughts on when we might see Master Plan 3? Feels like it might help frame whatever we learn on AI Day 2.

The Dec 31st deadline for the U.S. gov't to explain the implementation of the IRA programs leads to large uncertainly in how benefits will flow, thus affecting business priorities. Elon would be wise to wait for the Govt to move first, rather than have the proverbial rug pulled out by some spiteful congresscritter w. connections.

 

[rallykeeper]

100 bps would just be bonkers in the face of at least flattening inflation (per the Fed's metrics) and most likely decreasing inflation (everything else we see).

I agree, this is an overreaction.

The 100 bps tweet was about the U.K.

Don't think U.S. bond market is pricing in that much for November...yet.