bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Ah, thanks for the clarification.
100 bps on this side of the pond would probably tank the US market to new lows.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Ah, thanks for the clarification.
100 bps on this side of the pond would probably tank the US market to new lows.
Median forecast (Dot Plot) of the US Fed Officials has us at 4.4% by the end of the year, that's 0.75 and 0.50 in the next two meetings. Right now they have it going to 4.75-5% in 2023 but there is currently little consensus about moves next year.
0.75 is all but locked in for the next meeting unless something really dramatic happens
0.75 is all but locked in for the next meeting unless something really dramatic happens
I don't see why people pay much attention to Troy and his estimates/analysis. For example look at this tweet:
The Model 3 LR would have to have the price dropped by at least $1k, from when it was last offered, so the purchaser can get the $7.5k rebate and that is somehow going to massively improve Tesla's margins?
The Model 3 LR would have to have the price dropped by at least $1k, from when it was last offered, so the purchaser can get the $7.5k rebate and that is somehow going to massively improve Tesla's margins?
Perhaps he means that way more people will order the higher margin cars like the LR 3 and the Y because it comes to price parity of the low margin SR 3. Honestly SR3 may go away if the tax credit is available as people predicted and those batteries may just goes into storage.I don't see why people pay much attention to Troy and his estimates/analysis. For example look at this tweet:
The Model 3 LR would have to have the price dropped by $1k, from when it was last offered, so the purchaser can get the $7.5k rebate and that is somehow going to massively increase Tesla's margins?
I don't see why people pay much attention to Troy and his estimates/analysis. For example look at this tweet:
The Model 3 LR would have to have the price dropped by at least $1k, from when it was last offered, so the purchaser can get the $7.5k rebate and that is somehow going to massively improve Tesla's margins?
Was saying China demand issue not enough?
Wanna sabotage US Q4 as well?
Is the RWD Model 3 really that low of margin?
And for all Model 3s to qualify that would mean that they need to lower the price of the Model 3 Performance by $11k. ($3k of that to account for color/interior option prices.) Do you really think they are going to drop the price for the Model 3 Performance to $51,990? And then to keep parity between variants they would have to lower the Model 3 LR price to $44,990. And that is going to give Tesla better margins than the Model 3 RWD, that they are currently charging $46,990 for?
Yeah, I don't think so.
But I'm sure people, that would qualify for it, would love to be able to get a Model 3 LR for $39,490.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Only way this would really work for Tesla is if they took down the lines and moved the 3 over to a cast setup like the Y.
MASSIVE undertaking, but long-term would be very profitable by lowering cost of each car 3-7k.
Don't see it happening, simply b/c Tesla can't afford the downtime.
I think what they may try to do is raise Y prices to compensate for the 3 price drops since the Y has way more buffer because of the classification of SUV.
Tesla might do away with the Performance trim model of the 3 altogether. The Y is the highest margin between the 3/Y, it’s actually in Tesla’s interest to drive as much demand to the Y as possible
ZachF
Active Member
Man, the pound is really getting creamed. 
I am neither buying nor selling...
I am not even amused.
I am not even amused.
Gee I wonder why EAP cost $7500
Coming standard to all Ys near you(for 7500 dollars more)....lol
Also I see them getting rid of performance and it's purchasable via software update.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Completely macro related, but the "roundtable" discussion going on here is absolutely fascinating:
Companies from all sectors sitting across from J. Powell and other fed members giving reports on their various industries.
FANTASTIC insight into the different forces affecting different sectors.
EDIT - after listening to this, I am 100% convinced that the Fed's goal is really to get the labor market "back in line". That's under the guise of inflation, but I don't think the Fed is going to slow down until the labor market is more relaxed and people are actually looking for work.
Companies from all sectors sitting across from J. Powell and other fed members giving reports on their various industries.
FANTASTIC insight into the different forces affecting different sectors.
EDIT - after listening to this, I am 100% convinced that the Fed's goal is really to get the labor market "back in line". That's under the guise of inflation, but I don't think the Fed is going to slow down until the labor market is more relaxed and people are actually looking for work.
Playing loose with the facts again huh?
(They didn't raise the price of EAP when they raised the price of FSD.)
We don't even know whether the Y will be classified as a SUV/Truck, an $80k limit on a vehicle the size of a Y seems grossly gratuitous.
The Model Y was below $50k in 2020-2021 before all the price hikes, I think it's possible that small SUVs and crossovers like this will be held to the $55k "Other" category limit and the $80k limit will be for trucks and full-size SUVs with much larger battery packs.
The X and Cybertruck would fit into this category. The Y might, but I'd be a bit surprised when the Y battery pack is the same as the Model 3 and the two vehicles share most of their parts.
The Model Y was below $50k in 2020-2021 before all the price hikes, I think it's possible that small SUVs and crossovers like this will be held to the $55k "Other" category limit and the $80k limit will be for trucks and full-size SUVs with much larger battery packs.
The X and Cybertruck would fit into this category. The Y might, but I'd be a bit surprised when the Y battery pack is the same as the Model 3 and the two vehicles share most of their parts.
I've thought that for a while. They know that politically they can't come out and say "we want higher unemployment" though so they dance around the issue. They want to see 4% (natural rate).
It is classified as an SUV currently.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Man, the pound is really getting creamed.
Wow. Didn't notice, but 3% in a day. That's bonkers.
Yes we do. Stop repeating this FUD.
The Y is officially classified as a SUV. It always have been. Jesus that FUD won’t stay away, even from a forum as knowledgeable as this
Ah, that's why I thought it was 7500.
Any who, Tesla had a precedent of raising base but giving you software as standard. So I fully expect them to do it again to absorb some of that tax credit margins.
From 2019
“All Tesla vehicles now come with Autopilot bundled as a standard feature for less than the prior cost of the option. For example, Model 3 Standard Plus used to cost $37,500, plus $3,000 for the Autopilot option. It now costs $39,500, with Autopilot included.”
Tesla kills base $35,000 Model 3, increases prices, makes Autopilot standard
Tesla has announced that it's no longer selling the $35,000 Model 3 that it once promised, and has made autopilot standard.
electrek.co
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
You know . . . we have an immigration "problem". We have a labor shortage "problem".
You would think someone in politics would come up with a creative solution. Possibly a "work visa" or something?
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