Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

It is classified as an SUV currently.

I couldn't find a single competitor to the Y -- in terms of size, # of seats, etc -- that even approaches the $80k limit. It begs asking why these vehicles would be held to such a high limit when the limit would effectively do nothing to constrain the price of these vehicles.

Even after adding $17k to the 2020-2021 low price for the Model Y LR, going from $48,990 to $65,990, it's not even close to the limit.


Doesn't make sense to me, the Y has the same battery pack as the 3 but is going to be held to a limit $25k higher in legislation built around the battery supply chain?

 

[henchman24]

Wow..., everyone is really buying TSLA ahead of P&D aren't they.... /s

I remember when FOMO used to be a thing....

That'll probably start on Tuesday (unless the rumors of issues on sales in China continue)... this week is more about blood in the water and panic.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, it's been a rough Friday but here is a good piece of semi-Tesla related news. Obviously it's great for the people of Iran, but as well the more important Musk is seen in regards to national security/policy then it's less likely Tesla will be overtly targeted.

Elon Musk activates Starlink for Iranian citizens after US Sec of State issued a General License

Elon Musk announced that he was activating Starlink in response to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's tweet announcing

www.teslarati.com

I couldn't find a single competitor to the Y -- in terms of size, # of seats, etc -- that even approaches the $80k limit. It begs asking why these vehicles would be held to such a high limit when the limit would effectively do nothing to constrain the price of these vehicles.

It's because legacy auto wants to build EVs because they are more profitable and in demand. There are competitors in the ballpark though. Mach-E, etc. aren't far off from a Y in price.

 

[mongo]

Only way this would really work for Tesla is if they took down the lines and moved the 3 over to a cast setup like the Y.

MASSIVE undertaking, but long-term would be very profitable by lowering cost of each car 3-7k.

Don't see it happening, simply b/c Tesla can't afford the downtime.

How would replacing already purchased stamping dies and a fully installed and functional robotic body assembly cells with a new gigapress reduce the per vehicle cost 3-7k?
Casting lowers CapEx for a new plant, but for an existing line, I don't think the impact is that positive (if at all since you still carry the old equipment cost unless it gets reused).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I couldn't find a single competitor to the Y -- in terms of size, # of seats, etc -- that even approaches the $80k limit. It begs asking why these vehicles would be held to such a high limit when the limit would effectively do nothing to constrain the price of these vehicles.

Even after adding $17k to the 2020-2021 low price for the Model Y LR, going from $48,990 to $65,990, it's not even close to the limit.


Doesn't make sense to me, the Y has the same battery pack as the 3 but is going to be held to a limit $25k higher in legislation built around the battery supply chain?

It doesn’t matter if you think it’s logical or not. It’s officially classified as an SUV

 

[bkp_duke]

How would replacing already purchased stamping dies and a fully installed and functional robotic body assembly cells with a new gigapress reduce the per vehicle cost 3-7k?
Casting lowers CapEx for a new plant, but for an existing line, I don't think the impact is that positive (if at all since you still carry the old equipment cost unless it gets reused).

Easy - many MANY fewer employees on each line. We know, Elon has stated, that the lines for the Y are much shorter than for the 3 (this is why unlike the S/X line they cannot be combined).

When you are space constrained at Fremont as well, reclaiming some of that space by shortening the line, that's gold.


EDIT - and throughput, number of cars per hour, is higher off those lines that use casts than those using welded parts. Fewer stations, time per station lower.

EDIT2 - and the number of "reworks" of cars with a problem exiting production is lower. Fit and finish is higher. Win Win.

 

[AndrewZ]

It doesn’t matter if you think it’s logical or not. It’s officially classified as an SUV

Yeah I know what it's classified as, I was digging into the NTSB/DOT definitions and individual vehicle pages while researching this stuff and trying to find anything in this size range that came close to $80k.

It might be held to an $80k limit, but I'd really be surprised. The Model Y LR was below $50k before all the price increases, it could certainly be held to the $55k limit.

I think the SUV/Truck category will be for vehicles that are actually very large, have larger battery packs, and require more minerals/components. Why the Model Y would be held to a different category than the 3, I'm not sure.

 

[bkp_duke]

TSLA being capped in the last hour of trading.

QQQ is regaining some losses, but TSLA gets smacked down everytime it moves above 275.

 

[Fred42]

It doesn’t matter if you think it’s logical or not. It’s officially classified as an SUV

The Secretary of the Treasury is responsible to determine how vehicles are classified for the purpose of the IRA, and there has been no word. We don't yet know whether the $55,000 or $80,000 cap will apply to Y's.

 

[BornToFly]

Everywhere I look there are non-stop headlines about 1.1 Million vehicles being recalled. Some articles don't even mention the software update.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Haven't looked forward to a weekend this much in a while. Sweet relief.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA being capped in the last hour of trading.

QQQ is regaining some losses, but TSLA gets smacked down everything it moves above 275.

Indeed. It's a weekly options expiration day, and big option writers may targeting the $275 strike.

 

[BornToFly]

RIVN is green today. They must be on the verge of record deliveries and profits for the quarter....

 

[Curt Renz]

Everywhere I look there are non-stop headlines about 1.1 Million vehicles being recalled. Some articles don't even mention the software update.

Or the fact that it is not a road danger matter, and no injuries have been reported. It's about windows ordered closed that would not notice if a fool placed his fingers in the still open space. The fact that it will be addressed through over-the-air software updates should be the headline. Instead potential Tesla danger is used as clickbait FUD.

 

[larmor]

RIVN is green today. They must be on the verge of record deliveries and profits for the quarter....

And ramping several new factories as well...

 

[juanmedina]

RIVN is green today. They must be on the verge of record deliveries and profits for the quarter....

Lucid recovered a lot as well

 

[bkp_duke]

Indeed. It's a weekly options expiration day, and big option writers may targeting the $275 strike.

Almost 2M shares at the closing cross.

Yep, someone was covering shorts.

 

[thx1139]

I don't see why people pay much attention to Troy and his estimates/analysis. For example look at this tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573356568053161984

The Model 3 LR would have to have the price dropped by at least $1k, from when it was last offered, so the purchaser can get the $7.5k rebate and that is somehow going to massively improve Tesla's margins?

Dont forget the batteries in that car will get more than the $1K or $2K cut in price via the Inflation Reduction Act battery credits. Could also do things like cut the range via software to and allow for you to purchase back via an upgrade purchased thru the app.

 

[Usain]

Tesla Patents: Key Insights and Stats - Insights;Gate

Cool site.

A bit of trivia. Tesla's most-cited patent was filed in 2007, the "Tunable frangible battery pack system".

US7923144B2 - Tunable frangible battery pack system - Google Patents

A tunable frangible battery pack system for use in an electric vehicle is disclosed. The tunable frangible battery pack system includes a two piece clamshell housing. The system also includes a plurality of battery cells arranged within the housing and a collector plate secured to each piece of...

patents.google.com

 

[Singuy]

Vix did not close above 30 with that last minute fight. Pretty crazy fight going on but the capitulation group didn't win, the double bottom group won out today as we bounced off June lows.