Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

Everywhere I look there are non-stop headlines about 1.1 Million vehicles being recalled. Some articles don't even mention the software update.

bullish

 

[KBF]

Some would argue that pessimism in the investing world helps set you up for opportunities, it doesn't need to be a bad thing. Hope for the best but plan for the worst and all that, you'll minimize the risk of disappointment and maximize the chance of being pleasantly surprised.

This thread is so relentlessly optimistic and seemingly averse to the slightest hint of pessimism, I think it's to a detrimental degree. Anyone who significantly deviates from the optimism is downvoted and run out of the thread. The world is not all sunshine and roses, ya'll need some negativity in your investing lives to be fully informed and prepared for whatever may be coming whether it's good or bad.

The (mostly reliable) pattern I've noticed is that posters can be 'realistic to pessimistic' on here and not get downvoted if they avoid rudeness, mispresentation, or condescension, and also provide nuanced statements (avoiding 'never'/'always') instead of excessively simplified statements. Even the optimistic posters get the occasional downvote for the above reasons. And one or two posters seem to downvote more emotionally, that's just part of #forumlife.

The tricky part is that text misses out on a couple of layers of cues that would help us in a live conversation, and someone that sounds snarky/rude/triggered to the majority may not intend to portray any of that. So my default is to try to read others' intentions in the most optimistic light...

Back to the investment topic (and my optimism), I've been road tripping for the past 2 days with my son and met an employee of The Great Canadian Oilchange - his company ironically rented a Model 3 for him to cross the country in! I met him at a Supercharger in Nanaimo, BC, he had come from Manitoba (just like us) and was in awe at how good the charging system worked. I told him that today was a great day to buy TSLA stocks... It's so tempting for me to get frustrated when it drops on a day Rivian mysteriously increases (and I'm out of disposable cash right now), so if I can help pitch it to others.

Cheers to the optimists and pessimists - I appreciate both (it's nicer if someone else can be stressed for me and provide voices of caution to balance out people like me... )

 

[SOULPEDL]

This last Dec.

Pony.ai loses driverless testing permit in California following single-vehicle crash

Chinese robotaxi start-up Pony.ai has lost their driverless test permit in California just six month after receiving it. It appears the reason it no longer holds the permit is because of a recent crash involving […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Then this...

California DMV revokes Pony.ai permit to test autonomous vehicles with a safety driver

Pony.ai now finds itself without any testing permits in California after the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) revoked their permit to test their autonomous vehicles with a safety driver behind the wheel. According to a […]

driveteslacanada.ca

And now this...

Pony.ai expands into Tucson, Arizona

Pony.ai will set up its base of operations at the Automotive Technology and Innovation Center in Pima Community College's downtown campus.

driveteslacanada.ca

Permit? Tesla was not listed as active. IDK, does Tesla have autonomous vehicles yet? /s

 

[Zero CO2]

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The Mach-E and Volvo XC40 Recharge are the two vehicles out of the list you provided that are in the same "Small Sport Utility Vehicle" category, and neither have price tags that I would consider remotely close to $80k. The Rivian R1S has a massive battery pack and is what I would consider a real SUV, and this category will most definitely limit the price on that one.

If you believe this bill is designed to subsidize Audis and Jaguars, I think you’re reinforcing my point about this.

Side note that you can drop the emotional insults and snide remarks, you’re not goading me into an overreaction.

you need to be put on ignore .. you are a crafty care bear in disguise ... pretending to do your HW ... lot of BS on FSD and now OT stuff on Model Y
most of your points are incoherent ... none of this IRA has been fully fleshed out yet

and it does not matter ... there is no demand problem for Tesla ...IRA or no IRA (the IRA does not matter for Tesla all it does is breathe life into legacy for a couple more years )

i really wish the IRA did not pass ... the EV disruption is in full swing now no need to jump start by govt.

will take the handouts as a long term TSLA HODLER

 

[WADan]

OT, but
Japan is fully open. The pandemic is over (except for China still doing lockdown?).
Happy happy joy joy!

 

[betstarship]

"Ommmmggg the quality of the posts on this forum is beyond low quality!"

- me, with a glass of wine and a cackle plus sarcasm

Its amazing how the quality of posts lower as we get close to record breaking quarters (which are common now). So, we have p&d in 8 days that is going to be record setting again, yeah?

 

[lascavarian]

Thought I was being a tad stingy but my 2025 LEAP bids eventually filled. Just nibbles as usually I’m too early on my buys, so trying to exercise some patience.

After some success yesterday (down for the day today) with some ‘25 leaps, I found a little more courage and looked at 620 strike. It has been around 50 some days earlier (but sliding) and as the market opened - yuk. Tried an order at 37.50 and went off to clean out an ice dam in the frig - double yuk.

I was very surprised when they filled about an hour before the close. This is far out of the money but 2025 should be interesting.

 

[AndrewZ]

you need to be put on ignore .. you are a crafty care bear in disguise ... pretending to do your HW ... lot of BS on FSD and now OT stuff on Model Y
most of your points are incoherent ... none of this IRA has been fully fleshed out yet

and it does not matter ... there is no demand problem for Tesla ...IRA or no IRA (the IRA does not matter for Tesla all it does is breathe life into legacy for a couple more years )

i really wish the IRA did not pass ... the EV disruption is in full swing now no need to jump start by govt.

The IRA has nothing to do with incentivizing demand, the demand is already there. The IRA is about taking control of the battery supply chain from China’s hands, bringing the raw material and manufacturing work onto the shores of ourselves and our allies, and ensuring security as we move forward with the energy transition. And it’ll offset the higher costs that come with moving it out of China.

FSD is my #1 focus and where most of my positive reactions originate, but it’s not a topic for this thread. Feel free to venture into that subforum and debate.

 

[Cosmacelf]

If you look at the map you will realise that France blocks access to Spain. This is basically why it hasn't already happened. Same issue with road networks, rail networks, pipeline networks as well as this with electric networks.

Why does France block these thing?

There is also the big issue of the manufacturing capacity constraints for both HVAC and HVDC . When I visit the relevant factories they show me their expansion plans and order books, and costs, and believe me it is scary. The only country doing sensible strategic industrial strategy in this area is China.

What is scary, the lack of manufacturing capacity, the huge order backlogs? Just trying to understand.

 

[Singuy]

Q3 exchange drop as of today are as follows.

Euro to USD: 7% drop
Yuan to USD: 6% drop
Pounds to USD: 13.6% drop

If Theaccountant can plug some of these in to see what kind of potential GM will be affected. Thanks!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just nibbles as usually I’m too early on my buys, so trying to exercise some patience.

Me too, I usually wait until the markets start to go up again before buying in large macro move situations like this, but it is hard not to get caught up in a dead cat bounce rally. Er, no offense to your avatar

 

[Skryll]

Why does France block these thing?

Nuclear industry protectionism, they didnt want to compete with solar

 

[woodisgood]

Me too, I usually wait until the markets start to go up again before buying in large macro move situations like this, but it is hard not to get caught up in a dead cat bounce rally. Er, no offense to your avatar

You’re definitely the first person in the thread to make that joke.

 

[Krugerrand]

This one disagree from you is for trying to tell you what you need in your investment life.

The dozens of other disagrees from you prior to this one? Those were for deviating from optimism.

I wasn’t keeping track of my disagrees to you, but I’m pretty sure I didn’t give you ‘dozens’. If I did, you deserved each and every one of them for your ridiculous stance on required pessimism.

 

[Skryll]

[...] And Putin forces us to be even more frugal/efficient.
As an example, my energy usage is about 15k kWh/year. For a family of 3.5 persons, heating, cooking, 2 cars included (zero fossil fuels used, because Tesla). Belgium is more north than basically all of the USA excluding Alaska. So how much kWh/year would a typical family consume in the north of the USA?

similar where we live but excluding the heating which last year was still done for $1600 worth of natural gas. Let's see next year how the daikin heatpump impacts replacing that with kWh

 

[larmor]

Everywhere I look there are non-stop headlines about 1.1 Million vehicles being recalled. Some articles don't even mention the software update.

Wait hold on, tesla has 1.1 million vehicles on the road? Or are they in parking lots without chips or in powerpoint presentations?

 

[Gigapress]

View attachment 856242
View attachment 856244
The Mach-E and Volvo XC40 Recharge are the two vehicles out of the list you provided that are in the same "Small Sport Utility Vehicle" category, and neither have price tags that I would consider remotely close to $80k. The Rivian R1S has a massive battery pack and is what I would consider a real SUV, and this category will most definitely limit the price on that one.

If you believe this bill is designed to subsidize Audis and Jaguars, I think you’re reinforcing my point about this.

Side note that you can drop the emotional insults and snide remarks, you’re not goading me into an overreaction.

The Mach-E GT trim MSRP listed on the EPA website is out of date. The GT currently starts at $70k base. If you want the performance trim for the GT it goes to $76k. Add all the other little options and it's $78k.

The Volvo XC40 Recharge Ultimate trim is $61k base and can be optioned up to $64k. Does that sound too far from $80k? Well it really isn't.

First of all, these are today's prices for battery SUVs. Don't you think next year when the tax credit is in effect that equilibrium market prices will go up for eligible vehicle models, all else being equal, due to the consumers getting a $7500 discount? That's what I remember learning about the effect of demand-side subsidies in my first week of economics class.

Then let's consider that the law has no mechanism for adjusting for inflation, so the fixed nominal $80k limit will become increasingly stringent over time in terms of real purchasing power, and so gradually more and more luxury vehicles will get priced out. It would take just 25% inflation for a car that sells for $64k today to cost $80k in the future at purchasing power parity. I don't have a crystal ball but 25% cumulative inflation in the next 5 years or so seems pretty likely.

Also, the IRA doesn't specify a difference in the limit based on the size of the SUV. The law simply mandates an $80k MSRP limit for SUVs and stipulates that the Secretary must define a vehicle classification scheme that's generally in accordance with EPA and DoE classifications. You are free to have your own idea of what constitutes a "real SUV", but for tax purposes the IRS and courts are only going to care about the US federal govt's definition, and that definition currently puts the Y squarely in the SUV bucket. The US Govt long ago abandoned the original definition of the term SUV to mean just an off-road vehicle with enclosed cargo volume, 4wd and ground clearance. Now it is a much broader category as far as the law is concerned, from what I'm reading. So unless the Treasury Secretary decides to go plainly against the word and spirit of the law to invent a new way of categorizing vehicles that differs from the EPA's definition, then buyers of Model Ys who meet the other eligibility requirements are going to get this credit.

Realistically, crossover SUVs are the most profitable market segment and I think the US gov't is attempting to throw legacy auto a bone by giving SUVs including small crossovers and luxury Audis and Jags a high limit relative to the sedan limit, just as the gov't previously did years ago by watering down the SUV category in the first place to allow car companies to take advantage of the relatively looser corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) requirements for "light trucks" compared to "passenger vehicles".

This tax law is a huge boon for Tesla and I reached that conclusion not by blind optimism but by reading the law and applying logic and math.

Not tax, legal or investment advice.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The Mach-E GT trim MSRP listed on the EPA website is out of date. The GT currently starts at $70k base. If you want the performance trim for the GT it goes to $76k. Add all the other little options and it's $78k.

The Volvo XC40 Recharge Ultimate trim is $61k base and can be optioned up to $64k. Does that sound too far from $80k? Well it really isn't.

First of all, these are today's prices for battery SUVs. Don't you think next year when the tax credit is in effect that equilibrium market prices will go up for eligible vehicle models, all else being equal, due to the consumers getting a $7500 discount? That's what I remember learning about the effect of demand-side subsidies in my first week of economics class.

Then let's consider that the law has no mechanism for adjusting for inflation, so the fixed nominal $80k limit will become increasingly stringent over time in terms of real purchasing power, and so gradually more and more luxury vehicles will get priced out. It would take just 25% inflation for a car that sells for $64k today to cost $80k in the future at purchasing power parity. I don't have a crystal ball but 25% cumulative inflation in the next 5 years or so seems pretty likely.

Also, the IRA doesn't specify a difference in the limit based on the size of the SUV. The law simply mandates an $80k MSRP limit for SUVs and stipulates that the Secretary must define a vehicle classification scheme that's generally in accordance with EPA and DoE classifications. You are free to have your own idea of what constitutes a "real SUV", but for tax purposes the IRS and courts are only going to care about the US federal govt's definition, and that definition currently puts the Y squarely in the SUV bucket. The US Govt long ago abandoned the original definition of the term SUV to mean just an off-road vehicle with enclosed cargo volume, 4wd and ground clearance. Now it is a much broader category as far as the law is concerned, from what I'm reading. So unless the Treasury Secretary decides to go plainly against the word and spirit of the law to invent a new way of categorizing vehicles that differs from the EPA's definition, then buyers of Model Ys who meet the other eligibility requirements are going to get this credit.

Realistically, crossover SUVs are the most profitable market segment and I think the US gov't is attempting to throw legacy auto a bone by giving SUVs including small crossovers a high limit relative to the sedan limit, just as the gov't previously did years ago by watering down the SUV category in the first place to allow car companies to take advantage of the relatively looser corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) requirements for "light trucks" compared to "passenger vehicles".

This tax law is a huge boon for Tesla and I reached that conclusion not by blind optimism but by reading the law and applying logic and math.

Not tax, legal or investment advice.

At this point, not sure why you’re going back n forth with him. He has his narrative that he wants to push on with practically zero facts, just his feelings. Appreciate the effort though

 

[Big Time]

Hopefully we bounced off the lows there for good on the indices.


In the meantime….

 

[gillfoto]

Welcome to Brexit. Have a nice day.

Not everyone in the UK supported Brexit, the true Brits will have a 'Stiff upper lip'. Ex-Pat Scot.