One of the many many things an expanding company, like Tesla, has going for it (re-use partially obsoleted technology elsewhere) that a stable or declining company can't (GM, Ford, etc.)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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One of the many many things an expanding company, like Tesla, has going for it (re-use partially obsoleted technology elsewhere) that a stable or declining company can't (GM, Ford, etc.)
petit_bateau
Active Member
Thanks for the thanks.
If you want to read about China and nuclear may I suggest you skim through the daily energy news thread I write most weekdays. It has quite a lot of links to what is going on in the whole nuclear world including China. I don't think it will take long for you to see the reality of the very big Chinese numbers. See Energy Sector News .
I'm afraid you are definitely wrong on wind being a local energy source not requiring high capacity HV grids. I'd say about 90% of global wind capacity is in essence grid-connected as opposed to connected to the local distribution network. The picture on solar is somewhat more mixed - as a guesstimate I'd say that about 60-75% of global solar capacity depends on high voltage large capacity HV grids to reach the main load centres, but in the case of solar the transmission lengths have historically tended to be shorter. Whether the lengths will grow or reduce remains to be seen and is one of the considerations the investment boards in the HV grid widget makers struggle to understand/predict.
I've enormous respect for John Carmack, he is one of my heroes. However I personally think he is completely wrong on small nuclear (whether it be small modular nuclear, micro nuclear, nano nuclear, or whatever). I'm not agin nuclear per se, we should not reject any tools in the energy box out of hand, but it is a tough sell on commercial grounds. You'll find plenty of recent links on the energy news thread .... which is open to all and can be used for discussion purposes as well as news purposes.
I seem to be seeing increasing number of excellent free advertisement media articles for Tesla. Perhaps the tide is turning where positive articles on Tesla is slowly getting more clicks than negative ones from the EV buying consumers.
www.businessinsider.com
I drove the Tesla Model Y and found 7 reasons to buy Elon Musk's $66,000 electric SUV over rivals
The Tesla Model Y is fun to drive, easy to charge, and has a roomy, minimalist interior. See the best parts of owning Elon Musk's electric SUV.
www.businessinsider.com
This same guy wrote this a week ago.I seem to be seeing increasing number of excellent free advertisement media articles for Tesla. Perhaps the tide is turning where positive articles on Tesla is slowly getting more clicks than negative ones from the EV buying consumers.
I drove the Tesla Model Y and found 7 reasons to buy Elon Musk's $66,000 electric SUV over rivals
The Tesla Model Y is fun to drive, easy to charge, and has a roomy, minimalist interior. See the best parts of owning Elon Musk's electric SUV.
I drove a Tesla Model Y and discovered 6 reasons not to buy Elon Musk's $66,000 electric SUV
The Tesla Model Y is hugely popular for good reason. But not everyone will love its stiff ride, touchscreen interface, and minimalist interior.
www.businessinsider.com
3 out of 6 he complains, IMHO is actually quite positive. All Digital interface, No Gauge cluster and no Apple Car Play.
I absolutely give it to him on the "Bumpy Ride". Yes the ride is horrible. Huge negative for a few who are coming off of Lexus or Mercedes.
Arizona has been awarded money from the infrastructure bill to build EV chargers on highways. They are doing town hall meetings this fall and getting bids for construction spring of ‘23. I expect Tesla will be very competitive in the bidding with its prefabricated supercharger concept. The program also includes money for upgrading existing stations. V4 soon?
azdot.gov
Arizona Electric Vehicle Program | Department of Transportation
ADOT Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Deployment Plan
Will there be a tailwind from exchange rates if it recovers?
Since it's last week, not sure whether inventory like this is good or bad? 
Hope there are more videos at this same location next couple of days and we can make out whether there is backlog or inventory is moving ...
Hope there are more videos at this same location next couple of days and we can make out whether there is backlog or inventory is moving ...
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Do you want to join the upcoming Seattle TeslaMotorsClub TSLA investor meetup?
@Discoducky and I have had some excellent long discussions this summer that have been very valuable for both of us, and we think it'd be good to include some more folks in the Puget Sound region. We currently have 4 other people who will be joining us, one of whom will be coming all the way from Canada. I'm thinking some time in October but we will finalize time and place after knowing who's coming and what everybody prefers. DM me if interested.
(Posting this again in case somebody missed it the first time as the first post was buried amidst trolling from Your Mom.)
@Discoducky and I have had some excellent long discussions this summer that have been very valuable for both of us, and we think it'd be good to include some more folks in the Puget Sound region. We currently have 4 other people who will be joining us, one of whom will be coming all the way from Canada. I'm thinking some time in October but we will finalize time and place after knowing who's coming and what everybody prefers. DM me if interested.
(Posting this again in case somebody missed it the first time as the first post was buried amidst trolling from Your Mom.)
GigaBerlin's VINs are sequencially increasing and the subset that are exported to Norway are public (at e.g. Tesla Registration Stats), so the "German Tank Problem" is perfectly suited to estimate GigaBerlin's production:
With the expectation that the production rate at GigaBerlin is non-constant, the total production is less interesting than the recent rate of production on e.g. a weekly basis. As such one can base the estimate on the most recent D days - where for those D days the effective maximum observed VIN is the actual maximum observed VIN minus the maximum observed one D+1 days ago.
Because of the random nature of the day when a new maximum VIN is observed, the estimated rate of production is strongly dependent on the choice of D. Further, with a too small D, the fluctuations in the estimate are less likely to reflect actual production rate fluctuations and more likely to be an effect caused by the random nature of the maximum VIN occurrence. Lastly, with a too large D the estimate is at risk of being impacted by actual changes in the production rate during those D days.
To overcome this, one can compute the estimate for all meaningful values of D, e.g. D=7,8,9,... up to some limit where the production rate can be assumed to not have changed (e.g. some time after GigaBerlin's 2nd shift started). One can then make a histogram of the production estimates over D.
Based on this approach (for any histogram bucket size in the range 50 - 150) the average weekly production rate at GigaBerlin in the past 5, 6 and 7 weeks is about 1750.
Some expected, systematic errors in this approach:
1) There is some latency in a VIN being produced at GigaBerlin before it can be observed in Norway - basically the time to transport and register the vehicle there,
2) It is possible that certain production days are allocated to Norway, while others are not - e.g. if a whole train is going to be filled up with Norway exports. In such a case (a "Norway wave") the observed VINs will indicate a fluctuation in production rate which is not real but rather caused by a sampling bias. If this actually happens it seems to be on a timescale not discernible among the noisy samples.
I am not proud to write this, but after additional reflection I think my above use of the 'German Tank Problem' is incorrect.
Let me first describe how this proven estimate _can_ be used:
On Sept. 17 2022 Norway had seen 2085 VINs from GigaBerlin - the highest of which was 22625.
The 'German Tank Problem' then estimates the total production to be 22625 * ( 1 + 1/2085) - 1 = 22635.
We see that the estimate is only slightly higher than the maximum observed VIN - this is so because so many VINs have been observed, reducing the likelihood that even higher VINs exist. (Imagine the extreme case where all VINs up to the maximum has been observed, the estimate then equals the maximum).
As an opposite example, GigaBerlin VINs were first observed in Norway on April 13, the VINs 2669 and 2670. With only two VINs, the estimate of 2670*(1+1/2) - 1 = 4004 is (relatively) much higher, because the likelihood that unobserved, higher VINs exist is much higher.
It should be noted that GigaBerlin had a trial production of 2k Model Ys, so it is no great surprise that the first VINs observed are greater than 2k. It was subsequently reported that GigaBerlin received permission to sell also their trial production. And indeed, from May VINs smaller than 2k were observed with the smallest VIN observed being 130. So there is no reason to assume that some initial VIN range has to be ignored when calculating the estimate.
This is were the trouble starts.
Two days after the Sept. 17 maximum VIN was observed, a new maximum was observed: VIN 24561.
With the number of VINs seen having increased to 2195 the 'German Tank Problem' estimates the total production on Sept. 19 to be 24561 * ( 1 + 1/2195) - 1 = 24571. Fine.
However, the maximum VINs observed two days apart are _not_ independent events. Once the new maximum has been observed, this also affects what is the most likely total production two days before - and it would be wrong to assume that the new total production estimate is a result of production having taken place only during the time lapsed between the two observations. As such I have come to the conclusion that trying to deduce production rates based on simple differences of these 'German Tank Problem' estimates taken at face value on different days is _not_ a valid approach.
On a longer time scale, say a quarter of a year, I think the estimates are separated by enough time that one can assume their difference to be (largely) due to actual production during the elapsed quarter.
Unfortunately, no maximum VIN was observed close to the beginning of the current quarter - and as can be seen (more or less) from the attached plot, on June 22 a new max of 7385 was seen and then only on July 14 did it jump - to no less than 11433. So an estimate of the Q3 production (so far) would be strongly dependent on where one would estimate the production to be on July 1st, a number that can range from 7385 (plus 5 for the frequency correction) up to 11433 (plus 8 for the frequency correction).
As such I leave it as an open question what the GigaBerlin production rates are, with the observed GigaBerlin VINs on the attached plot. I am sorry about that.
If anyone can make a convincing argument of how one can deduce production rates from these numbers, then I will be happy to use the approach on the numbers (although the numbers are available to anyone, via e.g. teslastats.no).
I looked also at the GigaShanghai VINs observed in Norway and I would say that due to the strong 'delivery wave' the VINs are not helpful for deducing a production estimate.
To at least provide some modicum of useful information, I looked also at the split between the LR and P (and SR+ from China) for the current quarter in Norway (as of this moment):
CN(2222 VINs): 3-LR=24.3% (540 VINs) 3-P=13.5% (299 VINs) 3-SR+=11.2% (249 VINs) Y-LR=51.0% (1134 VINs)
DE(1757 VINs): Y-LR=32.2% (565 VINs) Y-P=67.8% (1192 VINs)
(Yes, the Ps exported from China to Norway are all Model 3, at least so far).
In principle, one could maybe use other information for the already lapsed Q2 to see how the splits correlate to a (more or less) already known ASP. As such I provide also the same splits for 2022 Q2 in Norway:
CN(1811 VINs): 3-LR=5.2% (95 VINs) 3-P=0.6% (10 VINs) 3-SR+=4.9% (89 VINs) Y-LR=89.3% (1617 VINs)
DE(1208 VINs): Y-P=100.0% (1208 VINs)
Unlike the 'German Tank Problem' estimates, these splits cannot be assumed to apply to the production as a whole, the splits can be different outside of Norway...
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What is with all the rumors circulating on Chinese premier Xi under house arrest? At this time the social media sources that are amplifying this are low quality sources. Nothing from the scandal hungry yellow media like WSJ or BI or CNBC.. for now. But wondering if any of our friends from China can refute or give additional context?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Xi Jinping Trends Online Amid Coup Rumors, Canceled Flights
Unsubstantiated claims spread on social media that the Chinese president is under house arrest, although the reports have been dismissed as "wild rumors."
www.newsweek.com
Slowly getting picked up, but I bet everyone is afraid to cover it because of lack of any verifiable facts.
Tesla is rumored to be producing 3100 cars per day. Logistic lots like this looks to be no more than 2 days of production....Since it's last week, not sure whether inventory like this is good or bad?
Hope there are more videos at this same location next couple of days and we can make out whether there is backlog or inventory is moving ...
I was quite shocked as it was coming from Business Insider. Their bias is pretty bad most of the time.This same guy wrote this a week ago.
I drove a Tesla Model Y and discovered 6 reasons not to buy Elon Musk's $66,000 electric SUV
The Tesla Model Y is hugely popular for good reason. But not everyone will love its stiff ride, touchscreen interface, and minimalist interior.
3 out of 6 he complains, IMHO is actually quite positive. All Digital interface, No Gauge cluster and no Apple Car Play.
I absolutely give it to him on the "Bumpy Ride". Yes the ride is horrible. Huge negative for a few who are coming off of Lexus or Mercedes.
+1 that the Y is a little too firm, at least the performance trim. Much stiffer than my P3.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Except, and I agree with you for the most part, there were a few rows of cars there with HEAVY dust/dirt on them.
Haha welcome to China, where your shiny car is dirty in about 3 days.
Now those model S that were heavy with dirt near Fremont, those I agree were there for awhile.
w
First of all thanks for the link on FSD developments. I have been driving my MX with FSD beta and need to mention they had replaced my cameras prior to being given this remarkable feature. I have driven everywhere and was very surprised on how it required no interventions other than keeping my hands on the steering wheel. The most amazing features as a novice driver are;
1. It sees everything at 360 degrees including pedestrians, trucks, bicycles, etc.
2. After stopping at a Stop sign it moves slowly forward to see in the intersections if it's clear to proceed.
3. It drives where there are no lines on the road. Wow
4. It is fast; no lollygagging.
5. Flawless entering the Freeways from the cities changing the views on the screen.
6. It feels like it is thinking as it watches traffic esp. on left turns which it does well.
It takes time to trust it in the beginning so as to not interfere which does put one back in control immediately.
But it does require awareness in case something abnormal happens such as a red light runner or crazy driver, but it probably can take evasive actions, but I like to take control in that type of situation so far.
I see why the price for FSD is increasing and when this reaches taxicab level the value will possibly skyrocket.
We also picked up some chairs on sale yesterday. What a great Friday.
Yesterday I was traveling north and then south from Oregon to California and saw many MYs headed north on trailers; maybe they are sending them to Canada, Washington or shipping them out of some ports. Fremont seems to be pumping them out like crazy.
I believe the FUD increase is a good sign. It has less and less of an effect on the SP. Poor babies.
Back on the road. Have a wonderful weekend.
They also just had a hurricane come through. That will definitely leave a ton of dirt buildup on them. Part of the reason I think weekly registrations dipped from 18k to 15k was the typhoon. No one’s going to go outside and take delivery during that and that’s about 2 days of no deliveries.
Holy Xi…t!Xi Jinping Trends Online Amid Coup Rumors, Canceled Flights
Unsubstantiated claims spread on social media that the Chinese president is under house arrest, although the reports have been dismissed as "wild rumors."
Slowly getting picked up, but I bet everyone is afraid to cover it because of lack of any verifiable facts.
Might be for the best for China and, possibly, the world.
If true, maybe we’ll hear a reassuring announcement before the markets open so they don’t berserk.
On the other hand, maybe we’ll see a photo op with Xi to dispel the rumor.
Wonder what the atmosphere is like in the Kremlin.
You’d think the Chinese censors would squash this in a heartbeat if false. Anyone know if the rumors are coming out on normally censored internet communications, or just Twitter?
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So let me know if I’m off base here, but with such a strong dollar, imports into the United States are significantly cheaper correct? Wouldn’t that mean that the cost of the LFP battery that Tesla imports from China for the SR Model 3 would be significantly cheaper for Q3? And would continue for as long as the dollar stays strong
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Elon agreed with this take on the fed
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