Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Captkerosene]

The FB fsd software club are now full of examples people averting accidents on. 69.2. From a person was about to press the accelerator thinking fsd stopped for no good reason but was actually waiting for a bicyclist to a crash of another car which went into the lane of the Tesla and stopped by fsd.

I find my disengagement drives to be more eap/hwy related now than fsd on city streets. Its very impressive.

I find my disengagement drives to be more eap/hwy related now than fsd on city streets. Its very impressive.

I'm getting 10 plus disengagements on my 2 mile commute to "work." Stops too early and waits too long at stop signs. Jerky turn after stop. Jerky turns without a stop. Slows way down for shadows. Too close to the centerline on unmarked roads when passing opposite direction traffic. Stops for a road name change. Defaults to a too slow speed limit after a turn onto another road. Misses speed limit signs. Takes 100 yards past the sign to slow to a lower speed limit. Takes sharp right hand turns too wide. Some of these are scary.

I expected Beta to be much better than I'm seeing. I'm driving on quiet, poorly marked country roads.

It did great on a well marked two lane highway but I don't trust it at 70 mph after seeing so many mistakes at much lower speeds.

Am I the only one with a bad experience or are people just not saying anything? I had much higher expectations after seeing things like Chuck's turn making such progress. Are they focusing on city streets first and ignoring us poor country boys? Will there be retaliation for being publicly critical of Beta? ... I don't want to beat up Tesla but I want investors to know where the program is really at.

 

[The Accountant]

Will there be a tailwind from exchange rates if it recovers?

There could be but it depends on how quickly it recovers in one quarter. If the dollar weakens slowly over many quarters, the impact in one quarter may not be material to the financial statements.

Side note: I often hear companies blame exchange rates as one component for weak earnings but I rarely hear Tesla mention exchange rates. There are minor comments in the 10K/10Q but nothing on the earnings calls that I can remember.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Not hearing much on the Xi/China situation. Was the coup led by Dick Nixon and JFK Jr. or something?

 

[The Accountant]

So let me know if I’m off base here, but with such a strong dollar, imports into the United States are significantly cheaper correct? Wouldn’t that mean that the cost of the LFP battery that Tesla imports from China for the SR Model 3 would be significantly cheaper for Q3? And would continue for as long as the dollar stays strong

Yes - I believe that is correct. Battery imports are denominated in Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen according to the 10K filing.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yes - I believe that is correct. Battery imports are denominated in Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen according to the 10K filing.

Oh I didn’t even think about the S/X battery packs as well coming from Japan/Panasonic. This could be material for COGS that no one is taking into account currently. Especially since S/X are close to being back to full production

 

[Singuy]

I find my disengagement drives to be more eap/hwy related now than fsd on city streets. Its very impressive.

I'm getting 10 plus disengagements on my 2 mile commute to "work." Stops too early and waits too long at stop signs. Jerky turn after stop. Jerky turns without a stop. Slows way down for shadows. Too close to the centerline on unmarked roads when passing opposite direction traffic. Stops for a road name change. Defaults to a too slow speed limit after a turn onto another road. Misses speed limit signs. Takes 100 yards past the sign to slow to a lower speed limit. Takes sharp right hand turns too wide. Some of these are scary.

I expected Beta to be much better than I'm seeing. I'm driving on quiet, poorly marked country roads.

It did great on a well marked two lane highway but I don't trust it at 70 mph after seeing so many mistakes at much lower speeds.

Am I the only one with a bad experience or are people just not saying anything? I had much higher expectations after seeing things like Chuck's turn making such progress. Are they focusing on city streets first and ignoring us poor country boys? Will there be retaliation for being publicly critical of Beta? ... I don't want to beat up Tesla but I want investors to know where the program is really at.

Fsd beta does poorly on poorly marked roads. It definitely struggles but fortunately lots of our roads in central FL are nicely marked so my experience has been solid.

 

[mongo]

Great to hear FSD beta is performing so well in Washington D.C. cross town, including crowded areas.

Still disabled in downtown Toronto. Whenever I crossed the dotted line, my Tesla flash the big red icon and screams at me as it turns off and disables the FSD.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573751813542649856

Does downtown still have streetcars?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508110810614181890

 

[willow_hiller]

Does downtown still have streetcars?

We've got one that runs up and down H St NE. I imagine the occupancy network would handle it okay. I'll make a mental note to test FSD Beta around that area sometime soon.

 

[Congo Line]

I find my disengagement drives to be more eap/hwy related now than fsd on city streets. Its very impressive.

I'm getting 10 plus disengagements on my 2 mile commute to "work." Stops too early and waits too long at stop signs. Jerky turn after stop. Jerky turns without a stop. Slows way down for shadows. Too close to the centerline on unmarked roads when passing opposite direction traffic. Stops for a road name change. Defaults to a too slow speed limit after a turn onto another road. Misses speed limit signs. Takes 100 yards past the sign to slow to a lower speed limit. Takes sharp right hand turns too wide. Some of these are scary.

I expected Beta to be much better than I'm seeing. I'm driving on quiet, poorly marked country roads.

It did great on a well marked two lane highway but I don't trust it at 70 mph after seeing so many mistakes at much lower speeds.

Am I the only one with a bad experience or are people just not saying anything? I had much higher expectations after seeing things like Chuck's turn making such progress. Are they focusing on city streets first and ignoring us poor country boys? Will there be retaliation for being publicly critical of Beta? ... I don't want to beat up Tesla but I want investors to know where the program is really at.

I thought FSD was horrible, then I realized I need to actually go into my settings and activate it, so the whole time I was actually still just in regular Autopilot (I thought once it downloaded it was active). I've only used it for a couple of drives, but the improvement from regular autopilot is night and day.

Just in case anyone else has made this same mistake.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I thought FSD was horrible, then I realized I need to actually go into my settings and activate it, so the whole time I was actually still just in regular Autopilot (I thought once it downloaded it was active). I've only used it for a couple of drives, but the improvement from regular autopilot is night and day.

Just in case anyone else has made this same mistake.

OMG. Tesla needs to change that ASAP. Many, many people will be doing this wrong.

 

[SN_8]

I thought FSD was horrible, then I realized I need to actually go into my settings and activate it, so the whole time I was actually still just in regular Autopilot (I thought once it downloaded it was active). I've only used it for a couple of drives, but the improvement from regular autopilot is night and day.

Just in case anyone else has made this same mistake.

Didn't realize Dan O'Dowd posts here.

 

[Singuy]

OMG. Tesla needs to change that ASAP. Many, many people will be doing this wrong.

There many people on the FB group who doesn't know the difference between AP, EAP, and FSD. Many subscribed the minute they bought the car and though AP is FSD, or EAP is fsd. We are constantly correcting people.

 

[jschwefel]

The northern US still gets 14-16%.

The desert SW is where most capacity will be built, the average monthly output graph for west Texas is literally flat with ~25% CF... Perfect for industrial applications.

People forget how far north Europe is… the south of France is as far north as Vermont.

Here is average capacity factor by country for the last 5 years:

29.3% Chile
26.8% United Arab Emirates
23.4% Israel
22.3% United States
22.1% Mexico
20.7% Spain
19.5% Turkey
19.3% Brazil
19.0% Australia
18.7% Portugal
17.8% India
17.2% Greece
16.1% South Korea
15.2% Canada
15.0% Philippines
14.5% Romania
13.5% Taiwan
13.3% Italy
13.3% Japan
13.2% China
12.8% France
11.7% Austria
11.1% Belgium
10.8% United Kingdom
10.7% Switzerland
10.6% Germany

An alternative take for you to consider. Not-advice, and just because I think its true, doesn't make it so


If you agree with the premise that a 2.5% interest rate is 'neutral' to the economy (and I do); neither stimulative, nor restrictive, then the entire year of interest rate hikes, up to but not including the most recent, has resulted in moving from an incredibly stimulative position to (finally) a neutral position. Most of this year, despite very high and growing inflation readings, the Fed has maintained a .... stimulative posture relative to the economy. Stimulating the economy, with such strong employment and high inflation, is not typically the game plan

Only with this most recent hike have we, finally, moved from economic stimulation to restriction. If the most recent change had been no change, then the Fed would be in a neutral position with the highest inflation many / most investors have ever witnessed (at least in the US).


The other part of this story that gets nearly 0 air time is QT. The Fed is finally also beginning to reduce liquidity in the market by allowing some of the expiring treasuries and mortgage backed loans to not be repurchased. I've read (but don't have a link handy) that the big banks were taking that big liquidity injection and doubling up by also buying treasuries and mortgage backed loans. So QE was closer to double the headline number - early indications is that trade is being unwound by the banks, meaning that QT is 2x the headline number.

The last time we went through a QE and then QT cycle, the QT didn't go on for very long before it needed to be stopped. I suspect something similar this time, and I suspect that QT is the more likely mechanism to drive a recession.


I guess that the end result is similar - I also see a pretty serious recession to be in the offing. My primary difference is that I don't see the Fed as having done enough yet to get us there, though the QT is sufficiently opaque to me that maybe the Fed really is doing enough, and the target interest rate is the magician's distraction from what really matters.

My take - the Fed hasn't gone far enough with the target interest rate, and I think they're right to be saying and acting as they are. If nothing else they (again MHO) still haven't convinced the investing class that they are really, really serious about inflation. Too many investors have lived for too long with the Fed put and think that's the norm.

Thank you for this. I agree and don’t think QT gets enough attention. Money supply is a big deal and I find it interesting no one talks about it. It makes me wonder if the Fed is up to something else while under the guise of “controlling inflation.”

 

[lascavarian]

Autoline network looks at legacy auto companies stock performance and top line over a decade. Sobering stuff! Brief comparison with Tesla (and Teslanaires)

Worth the time IMO.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Anutoline network looks at legacy auto companys stock performance and top line over a decade. Sobering stuff! Brief comparison with Tesla (and Teslanaires)

Worth the time IMO.

Quite the shift in tone toward Tesla at Autoline Network over the last year or so. Nice to see.

 

[2daMoon]

Quite the shift in tone toward Tesla at Autoline Network over the last year or so. Nice to see.

Sandy gave John a ride in a Tesla. Whadda you expect?

 

[ZeApelido]

Sure FSD is improving, but how ever will Tesla catch up to Cruise, who currently is cruising into buses even though they claim they are ready for expansion?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Sure FSD is improving, but how ever will Tesla catch up to Cruise, who currently is cruising into buses even though they claim they are ready for expansion?

Don’t know if this contributed to it, but a fun fact about Lidar is that it can’t see windows. Windows look like open space to Lidar.

 

[Electroman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573822518074302464

Elon GOAT Token - EGT Monument - $EGT

Elon GOAT Token ($EGT) is building a biblical sized monument on the back of a semi-trailer dedicated to the Godfather of Crypto, Elon Musk.

elongoat.io

 

[Ogre]

Wow, thanks for the complete answer. Very informative. I am guessing that China's lead is also extending in nuclear power plants? I had heard a while ago that they were building a lot of them. Other than the US, France and Canada, none of which are really building more of them, there doesn't seem to be a country that is has invested in nuclear.

On the other hand, nuclear is kinda yesterday's technology if you look at its need for massive transmission line facilities, which is in contrast with wind and solar which is mostly a local energy source (which, of course, need batteries to be considered a competitor to nuclear).

John Carmack of game programming fame, who recently started a general AI company, mentioned he had been exploring nano-scale nuclear. Meaning house or community level sized. The idea being that if designed properly, it need not be super efficient (so it isn't run on the knife edge of uncontrolled run-away fission), yet could just run with a completely sealed fuel pellet for a decade or so before being recycled. You'd use an isotope that would be useless for bomb making and other safety issues would need addressing, but I've always been interested in such a technology. Just like rooftop solar, removing the need for transmission cost removes half your costs right there.

Terrestrial nuclear power seems like a temporary crutch at best. The cost of solar plus storage is plummeting so fast it’s going to be hard to justify investing in technology which requires an expensive refuel after 10 years.

Extraterrestrial nuclear is going to be super interesting though because it’ll be much easier to ship 100GW of nuclear power than solar. Could be an option for Mars and the moon both. Might just be a bootstrap while they bring solar online.