Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[brianhn1]

I totally agree. I don’t like the ride of the Model Y. If I owned one I would seriously consider an aftermarket suspension alteration.

I really thought you were talking to your self. lol similar names.

I rented a Hertz Model Y from Dulles airport a couple of weeks ago, I liked the ride a lot more than a 2018 Model 3 as it was less bumpy and still had sharp handling. I liked it so much I decided to place orders for family members who don't own a Tesla yet. Guess it is different for everyone depending on what car they compare it to.

OT, Hertz Tesla rental was a good experience:
had the Y Long Range charged to 100% at pick up (pretty sure that is bad for battery),
only allows pickup and return of vehicle to same location (in my case it was Dulles International Aiport, but I fly into small airports and apparently they allow returns to them as long as you tell them ahead of time...was no extra charge since maybe b/c I'm "president's circle" status),
supercharging has zero markup (just passthru),
as long as you return the Y with at least 75% charge they don't add "not returned full" charges,
particular Y had only 8k miles but already had 2 wheels curbed (has Induction wheels).

Hertz suffers the same issues as other rental car companies (especially at small airports) like not always having a car ready at pickup at small airports, since it is dependent on the quality of the employees working at those small locations, so in my case I arrived without a rental car at the FBO even though it was confirmed before arrival multiple times. Ended up having to pick up the last remaining rental car which happened to be a Model Y at Dulles and made me lose a couple of hours to Uber then drive to destination, which was partially rectified by Hertz allowing it to be returned at the small airport without any additional fee (eg. one way rentals) and circumvent the restriction of all EVs must be returned to same pick up location.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

No wonder the pound is collapsing… Holy hell Britain!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574045613926371329

Usually a trade inballance like that is somewhat self-correcting. A fall in the pound makes inports more expensive and exports cheaper and more competitive.

However, a constant war on manufacturing over the last decade and a slow decline for more than 50 years, means that manufacturing is so weak that it cannot replace imports and cannot grow to export more. Brexit has hit manufacturing hard, disrupting supply chains, increasing bureaucracy and putting up trade barriers. I was talking to a 35 year old Polish woman, running a manufacturing business on wednesday, their workforce has reduced from 140 to about 50 due to loss of European orders.

A recession will drop demand for imports, but the shallow recession forecast probably won't have much of an effect. The big imports of energy and food have low price elasticity, so do many manufactured (goods people will go without food rather than without a phone). With the steep fall in the pound the value of imports even if falling in units might still rise in pound denominated terms.

I really dispair about the UK economy, there seems no path now to a good item in the short or medium term, it will take decades to undo the damage done by the conservatives in the last few years, even then there will still be the structural issues: demographics, London centric, financial service heavy, poor workforce training, lack of large UK companies and weak venture capital.

P.S. I gave you an "informative" as there is nothing to "like" about the UK ecomony at present.

 

[MABMAB]

I really thought you were talking to your self. lol similar names.

I rented a Hertz Model Y from Dulles airport a couple of weeks ago, I liked the ride a lot more than a 2018 Model 3 as it was less bumpy and still had sharp handling. I liked it so much I decided to place orders for family members who don't own a Tesla yet. Guess it is different for everyone depending on what car they compare it to.

OT, Hertz Tesla rental was a good experience:
had the Y Long Range charged to 100% at pick up (pretty sure that is bad for battery),
only allows pickup and return of vehicle to same location (in my case it was Dulles International Aiport, but I fly into small airports and apparently they allow returns to them as long as you tell them ahead of time...was no extra charge since maybe b/c I'm "president's circle" status),
supercharging has zero markup (just passthru),
as long as you return the Y with at least 75% charge they don't add "not returned full" charges,
particular Y had only 8k miles but already had 2 wheels curbed (has Induction wheels).

Hertz suffers the same issues as other rental car companies (especially at small airports) like not always having a car ready at pickup at small airports, since it is dependent on the quality of the employees working at those small locations, so in my case I arrived without a rental car at the FBO even though it was confirmed before arrival multiple times. Ended up having to pick up the last remaining rental car which happened to be a Model Y at Dulles and made me lose a couple of hours to Uber then drive to destination, which was partially rectified by Hertz allowing it to be returned at the small airport without any additional fee (eg. one way rentals) and circumvent the restriction of all EVs must be returned to same pick up location.

I flew into DFW a few weeks ago, used hertz, great experience but tough to find a TSLA online. There were several in the pick up lot.

 

[Paul_SF]

I flew into DFW a few weeks ago, used hertz, great experience but tough to find a TSLA online. There were several in the pick up lot.

Plenty TSLA online, you can get 1 with around $275 if you are fast on Monday morning. They might go up in price so be quick.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Every few months we see Tesla sign another contract with a mine for a critical cell mineral. These long term contracts should be regarded as Tesla building a new moat that other OEMs will find, in a few years, increasingly difficult to traverse at similar volume and cost to Tesla.

Excellent article:
August issue of Battery Materials Review
Capital capacity vs Capital requirement: the misunderstanding that threatens the viability of the EV event
By: Matt Fernley. Posted on - 23 Sep 2022

Link

My takeaway:
While institutions invest heavily in EV producing OEMs. they are much less willing to invest in mining of minerals essential for EVs due to ESG stigma. Hence it will be up to EV OEMs to guarantee the funding for mining exploration, development and extraction. And those who takes this path, ie Tesla, shall reap the rewards In future years.

This quote from the article supports what Tesla said:
“on average, it takes 1-3 years to build a cell or EV manufacturing plant. But it can take between five and ten years to build a new mine”

So, maybe a reply to this should be in the Other Tech Stocks to Invest Thread, but does that website give you any insights into which mining juniors or others to invest in?

 

[AndrewZ]

There are massive risks undertaking large mining projects domestically, the impact from ESG policies is very real in this industry. Much of my work here in Canada involves mining in some regard, I consult with companies who execute mining projects in everything from potash to diamonds and ranging from a few million to a few billion $$$.

It's nigh impossible to get anything out of the ground here. If you do manage to get a project through the initial design and permitting phase, be ready for huge delays along the way as you ramp construction. I was on a major potash project last year where we shut down an entire work front because a peregrine falcon set up a nest on one of the buildings. We brought in an environmental consultant at $180/hr, set up three cameras and monitored it constantly. I've seen delays due to toad migrations, my current project is dealing with frogs and salamanders at the moment.

China and other parts of Asia and the developing world don't deal with these things, and that's why all the capacity is there and one of the big reasons it's so much cheaper.

If Tesla can take on and manage the risks involved in these projects, reaping the rewards is well-deserved. There are very good reasons nobody wants to do it, anyone in this industry will tell you. Start the process now because it very well could be a decade to design, plan, build, and commission any significant production.


Could talk about skilled labour shortages as well, we can't get enough people to execute anything on time.

 

[Cosmacelf]

There are massive risks undertaking large mining projects domestically, the impact from ESG policies is very real in this industry. Much of my work here in Canada involves mining in some regard, I consult with companies who execute mining projects in everything from potash to diamonds and ranging from a few million to a few billion $$$.

It's nigh impossible to get anything out of the ground here. If you do manage to get a project through the initial design and permitting phase, be ready for huge delays along the way as you ramp construction. I was on a major potash project last year where we shut down an entire work front because a peregrine falcon set up a nest on one of the buildings. We brought in an environmental consultant at $180/hr, set up three cameras and monitored it constantly. I've seen delays due to toad migrations, my current project is dealing with frogs and salamanders at the moment.

China and other parts of Asia and the developing world don't deal with these things, and that's why all the capacity is there and one of the big reasons it's so much cheaper.

If Tesla can take on and manage the risks involved in these projects, reaping the rewards is well-deserved. There are very good reasons nobody wants to do it, anyone in this industry will tell you. Start the process now because it very well could be a decade to design, plan, build, and commission any significant production.


Could talk about skilled labour shortages as well, we can't get enough people to execute anything on time.

Ouch. I was hoping that Canadian projects would be easier since Canada has a rich history of extraction projects, but I guess the current Governments are being twits in this area as well as in everything else.

 

[Prunesquallor]

oops, forgot about funny. funnies are +1
(added funnies to original formula)

If not for Funnies, I’d have no score at all.

 

[jw934]

Trading strategy that worked in past years may not work this year.

Average S&P500 performance for 2022 so far is that during the week following a one day 1% decline is another 1.2% decline.

Hope not to see more one day 1% declines this year. Too many already.

link

 

[betstarship]

Trading strategy that worked in past years may not work this year.

View attachment 856867

Average S&P500 performance for 2022 so far is that during the week following a one day 1% decline is another 1.2% decline.

Hope not to see more one day 1% declines this year. Too many already.



View attachment 856868
link

I'd suggest looking up trend sites, linked here before, explaining how the S&P 500 has reacted and performed during midterm election years.

 

[printf42]

Weekend OT:
What demo could Optimus do on stage for AI day 2?
I’m pretty sure Wall Street would completely miss the point and don’t even understand what’s been demonstrated.
But to impress the right target audience, what could be done?

My takes:

• Let Franz throw tomatoes at a CyberTruck and Optimus catches them then start to juggle them.
• Do the exact same dance as in AI day 1, wearing the same suit, not skin, the suit.
• Flip burgers
• Drive a fork lift through an obstacle course with a Model Y body in white balanced on the fork upside down.
• Thread wiring harness through a car body and plug in all connectors.

Frankly some of these are too big of a stretch, but these are the ones I would like to see some time in the future.

 

[navguy12]

Ouch. I was hoping that Canadian projects would be easier since Canada has a rich history of extraction projects, but I guess the current Governments are being twits in this area as well as in everything else.

AFAIK, other than uranium, Canadian extraction projects come under provincial jurisdiction.

 

[Discoducky]

Weekend OT:
What demo could Optimus do on stage for AI day 2?
I’m pretty sure Wall Street would completely miss the point and don’t even understand what’s been demonstrated.
But to impress the right target audience, what could be done?

My takes:

• Let Franz throw tomatoes at a CyberTruck and Optimus catches them then start to juggle them.
• Do the exact same dance as in AI day 1, wearing the same suit, not skin, the suit.
• Flip burgers
• Drive a fork lift through an obstacle course with a Model Y body in white balanced on the fork upside down.
• Thread wiring harness through a car body and plug in all connectors.

Frankly some of these are too big of a stretch, but these are the ones I would like to see some time in the future.

I wrote a short spec (1 pager), but I don't think you'll like it if you are expecting anywhere near the above...

TL;DR - I'm expecting a demonstration of something along the lines of "Please bring me a can of soda from the fridge" and if this happens would be so far beyond anything that has been accomplished to date in robotics that engineers are going to flock to Tesla (even more so than before).

There are a few more parts of the spec that I think folks will like however. Feedback is appreciated!

 

[Electroman]

Also be prepared to not there be any live demo , except a few slides explaining the potential. Much like battery day. Or a demo video like the autonomy day.

 

[Tachyon]

Optimus will successfully analyse and provide a price target on TSLA 3$-300$
And will instantly receive 3 ️rating on tip ranks.

 

[insaneoctane]

Just had an epiphany about FSD once it's beyond L2....the OTA cycle will have to tighten considerably. Once the driver is no longer liable, the software has to be bulletproof and the testing to release any upgrades or enhancements will have to be massive and thorough...or people die. This seems to point to software OTA upgrades on FSD vehicles will likely be slow and few?

I'm not a software guy, so maybe I'm wrong about this, but this seems likely to impact upgrade frequency vs today...

 

[mars_or_bust]

I've got just the guy for the job. He's local (to Mars) and has a broom (on his hat)

... as for relevant to this forum, well, it is the weekend after all

I, of course, could not agree more.

 

[MC3OZ]

This seems to point to software OTA upgrades on FSD vehicles will likely be slow and few?

The short answer here is :- "don't worry Tesla will handle it".

The long answer is FSD is one part of the car software, they can change other parts of the software without changing FSD.
FSD updates themselves will go through a long testing process with multiple versions in the pipeline at anyone time.
A lot of the testing should be in a simulator running in a lab with the FSD software being benchmarked against previous versions of the software and previous disengagement scenarios. If Tesla has all of the data and can simulate a scenario, they can likely simulate subtle variations of the scenario.
The software will not know it is living in a simulation. Once it passes those simulation tests, real world testing begins.

I totally agree. I don’t like the ride of the Model Y. If I owned one I would seriously consider an aftermarket suspension alteration.

I was discussing this with my brother-in-law on the weekend,. To become a "soft-off-road" vehicle Model Y simply needs air-suspension, and perhaps a bigger battery for a bit more off-road range. They might also need to consider more protection for the battery pack.

Accessories like "bull bars" and similar additional collision damage prevention, off-read wheels, roof racks etc, could be supplied.

Making Model Y more off-road capable also improves the ride quality on bumpy roads.

For genuine adventure off-road a Cybertruck is the best option, but there are many situations where travel on more marginal roads requires a moderate amount of off-road ability. e.g. Dirt roads after heavy rain, etc

 

[JRP3]

Weekend OT:
What demo could Optimus do on stage for AI day 2?
I’m pretty sure Wall Street would completely miss the point and don’t even understand what’s been demonstrated.
But to impress the right target audience, what could be done?

My takes:

• Let Franz throw tomatoes at a CyberTruck and Optimus catches them then start to juggle them.
• Do the exact same dance as in AI day 1, wearing the same suit, not skin, the suit.
• Flip burgers
• Drive a fork lift through an obstacle course with a Model Y body in white balanced on the fork upside down.
• Thread wiring harness through a car body and plug in all connectors.

Frankly some of these are too big of a stretch, but these are the ones I would like to see some time in the future.

I'm betting none of those will happen. Maybe it can walk around and follow some basic instructions on the fly, pick up and carry some items, maybe open a door.

 

[fiveten]

Weekend OT:
What demo could Optimus do on stage for AI day 2?
I’m pretty sure Wall Street would completely miss the point and don’t even understand what’s been demonstrated.
But to impress the right target audience, what could be done?

My takes:

• Let Franz throw tomatoes at a CyberTruck and Optimus catches them then start to juggle them.
• Do the exact same dance as in AI day 1, wearing the same suit, not skin, the suit.
• Flip burgers
• Drive a fork lift through an obstacle course with a Model Y body in white balanced on the fork upside down.
• Thread wiring harness through a car body and plug in all connectors.

Frankly some of these are too big of a stretch, but these are the ones I would like to see some time in the future.

I was thinking a recreation of that dance would happen. Not sure if now, but soon.