Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

I agree, for the US. We are in a very different economic “crisis” than anything we've ever seen...

Factually, nearly the whole world is going through economic conditions that are unprecedented. For the last few years the world has been remarkably stable.
Today we have not just obvious things such as Brexit, the Russian aggression, and Covid-19 related employment crises.

Just today:\
- Iran dissent following defeat of Rouhani hence we now have serious hardliners;
-Italy now joins the era of ultra-right leadership;
-The new UK government is presenting high risk strategies, one new forecast 5% drop next year.
-China rumors plus Xi muttering about Vladivostok and Amar.
Add those to everything we already know and it is not possible to be optimistic in the short term.
Tesla clearly is a huge exception but..can anybody industrial fight all of this simultaneously without consequence?

This all presents a dilemma. There is no safe haven. What to do? For me, it still is mostly TSLA. Tesla can weather all this better than can anyone else. Everyone here regularly shows why that is true. It begins with TSLA having huge liquidity with negligible debt,
When we add those to every other advantage I still HODL.

In the meantime utility-level storage products are rising beyond exponentially. Who benefits?

 

[Singuy]

So the fed can pull the interest rates lever to lessen demand. What can they realistically do to increase supply? At best it would seem they could lower rates to increase investment which eventually hopefully fixes supply, but waaaay down the road.

The fed can't do much. The government can do plenty. Maybe champion success vs throwing stones at American businesses. Maybe have a more collaboration approach when it comes to international policy vs threatening embargo and having trade wars. Maybe add more ports, build more shipping hubs, and fix our infrastructure vs calling union workers to go on strike. Just to name a few.

 

[slacker775]

The fed can't do much. The government can do plenty. Maybe champion success vs throwing stones at American businesses. Maybe have a more collaboration approach when it comes to international policy vs threatening embargo and having trade wars. Maybe add more ports, build more shipping hubs, and fix our infrastructure vs calling union workers to go on strike. Just to name a few.

Also things that tend to take time to pan out. The IRA and infrastructure bills have stuff that hopefully will provide value domestically even with the inevetiable amount of cronieism and backroom deals (just keep Brett Favre away from any of it!). Even the antics from the prior administration seemed to help spur companies spreading out of China, reducing our dependence there somewhat. Certainly the childish antics like avoiding recognizing Tesla's accomplishments are just demonstrations of how you can never look to our leaders for leadership but...

 

[Nocturnal]

So the fed can pull the interest rates lever to lessen demand. What can they realistically do to increase supply? At best it would seem they could lower rates to increase investment which eventually hopefully fixes supply, but waaaay down the road.

The FED can't. The problem is that our Congress and WH are always bad at their jobs and fiscal policy is their job.

The IRA actually does work towards fixing supply but it's a longer term deal. We should have been directly working to get logistics (ports etc.) to work as smoothly as possible over the last few years.

 

[capster]

Weekend OT:
What demo could Optimus do on stage for AI day 2?
I’m pretty sure Wall Street would completely miss the point and don’t even understand what’s been demonstrated.
But to impress the right target audience, what could be done?

My takes:

• Let Franz throw tomatoes at a CyberTruck and Optimus catches them then start to juggle them.
• Do the exact same dance as in AI day 1, wearing the same suit, not skin, the suit.
• Flip burgers
• Drive a fork lift through an obstacle course with a Model Y body in white balanced on the fork upside down.
• Thread wiring harness through a car body and plug in all connectors.

Frankly some of these are too big of a stretch, but these are the ones I would like to see some time in the future.

Cooking rice in a rice cooker—open the rice container, measure out the rice, rinse the rice and put it in the cooker, close the top and start the cooker—might be a stretch, but it would be relatable to a lot of folks around the world.

It would also counter the almost uniformly negative media coverage and subtle digs from sources, such as from the NY Times and NPR, whose audience demographics likely skew female. Recall that women make most of the purchases and do the lionesses’ share of the housework. (Not that women are the only users of rice cookers. The rice cooker use case occurred to me a week or so ago when I’d forgotten to set up the rice cooker before leaving the house and had to settle for the quick cook cycle later. I could’ve called home and had Optimus do it.)

I also think that women are specifically targeted with some of the FUD. For example, the million plus car Tesla "recall" (aka over-the-air update) was called out on “Wait, wait, don’t tell me!" yesterday. The goal, imho, is to cause women to critique their hubbies’ TSLA investment and to make them hesitate in buying a Tesla.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I also think that women are specifically targeted with some of the FUD. For example, the million plus car Tesla "recall" (aka over-the-air update) was called out on “Wait, wait, don’t tell me!" yesterday. The goal, imho, is to cause women to critique their hubbies’ TSLA investment and to make them hesitate in buying a Tesla.

You know what is funny about this statement? my wife is so quick to point out FUD on $TSLA and makes it a point to 'rub it in my face', i have just learned to stay quiet until she starts asking the question "When can we retire..." and my answer is "I do not know about you but $TSLA has made me enough that i can"

 

[petit_bateau]

That seems like a pretty low bar.

Also, natural biped walking must be awfully hard...I've yet to see a robot do it well.

Yeah, it took evolution about 3.5 billion years to get there. From first life (c.3.7 billion years ago) to first true bipedal dinosaur (approx 230 million years ago - I am excluding the crocodile branch). It needs a very sophisticated set of joints and control system to do properly, as opposed to 'waddle'.

Bipedalism - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Ogre]

Interesting data point. My kid's daycare owner just got a Lucid which he ordered 6 months ago, said it would be delivered in 60 days but took 6 months. He also had a Model X refresh on order and just got the notice that it's ready after 1.5 years. He of course is cancelling the model X because he got his Lucid.

I was blown away that Tesla made like 20x more Model X in the last 1.5 years than Lucid but still lost out on delivering it in time vs a Luvid. I was also surprised that the initial promise time for a Lucid was lower than any car from Tesla 6 months ago (when electric cars were at peak demand).

Maybe Lucid is having a demand problem. Oops. I meant to say they are clearly crushing deliveries! Or right sized deliveries to meet demand perfectly.

One of those "good news/ bad news" stories in a nutshell.

 

[larmor]

The fed can't do much. The government can do plenty. Maybe champion success vs throwing stones at American businesses. Maybe have a more collaboration approach when it comes to international policy vs threatening embargo and having trade wars. Maybe add more ports, build more shipping hubs, and fix our infrastructure vs calling union workers to go on strike. Just to name a few.

More spending on infrastructure would be a great stimulus for the economy-- the roads, bridges, ports, airports, water supply, etc are crumbling, and these are not privatized-- so does not matter if you are red or blue, the roads (among other infrastructure) everywhere in the US need fixing.

Technically speaking the US government does not throw stones at American businesses, only at one entity that is in California and Texas and possibly Buffalo, which are all very close to the US and they are not real American businesses, since they don't lobby the US government to tell them that they are indeed an American business.

 

[Ogre]

Forward Observing

The difference between AI day 2.0 and any other special Tesla day which falls on Friday 30 September; Sunday the 2d of October In time for my late am coffee is 3Q deliveries.

Wall street might be in for a T-bone accident. Is that a stock thing? Is there room for legacy auto manufacturers shrinkage?

Cheers

Yeah, the big wildcard on AI day from an investors perspective is removing the beta tag from FSD (or at least opening it up to everyone who has purchased it). If Tesla decides FSD is good enough to release completely, they can recognize that revenue. That would be a nice windfall, increase margins a bit going forward, and possibly increase uptake of FSD. All of which would make a nice tailwind coming into earnings.

 

[larmor]

Cooking rice in a rice cooker—open the rice container, measure out the rice, rinse the rice and put it in the cooker, close the top and start the cooker—might be a stretch, but it would be relatable to a lot of folks around the world.

It would also counter the almost uniformly negative media coverage and subtle digs from sources, such as from the NY Times and NPR, whose audience demographics likely skew female. Recall that women make most of the purchases and do the lionesses’ share of the housework. (Not that women are the only users of rice cookers. The rice cooker use case occurred to me a week or so ago when I’d forgotten to set up the rice cooker before leaving the house and had to settle for the quick cook cycle later. I could’ve called home and had Optimus do it.)

I also think that women are specifically targeted with some of the FUD. For example, the million plus car Tesla "recall" (aka over-the-air update) was called out on “Wait, wait, don’t tell me!" yesterday. The goal, imho, is to cause women to critique their hubbies’ TSLA investment and to make them hesitate in buying a Tesla.

NPR is super anti Tesla and anti musk. They were outraged that musk wanted to buy twitter-- how can one person get so much control, and then when it is publicly noted that a huge percentage of twitter users and content are bot related, NPR is again alarmed that musk is "trying to get out of the deal." NPR was notably silent and absent righteous indignation on twitter content have a non trivial bot generated content. There are so many more examples. Starlink going active in Iran-- but no credit to spacex or musk for allowing his private company to facilitate free speech.

 

[canoemore]

Moment 1: omg, the IRA is going shovel money disproportionately into Tesla's coffers and strongly incentivize the establishment of a robust industrial base to feed and accelerate the energy transition. How fortunate for TSLA!
Moment 2: Waaa, the president doesn't talk about Tesla as much as I want him to. The US Government is fixated on Tesla's destruction.

 

[Usain]

So Yahoo has consensus Q3 earnings at $1.05. That's below the actual Q1 earnings of $1.07.

What could these consensus-builders possibly be putting into their spreadsheets that predict Q3 earnings below Q1?

 

[FireMedic]

What I don't like the most is this "making everyone poorer" is by syphoning money into banks. "Oh you all are suffering from inflation?, well lets all give the banks your hard earned cash so you can buy less...don't worry..this will decrease prices". I rather they increase taxes vs increase rates.

And the government spends more of our money on servicing the National debt which is another hit to the tax payer.

I’m certain that this has been mentioned, but it’s going to be much harder, if not impossible, to afford the interest payments on our debt if rates continue to rise…the question for me is, will Wall Street call the Fed’s bluff; knowing they can’t continue to raise rates or face insolvency.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So Yahoo has consensus Q3 earnings at $1.05. That's below the actual Q1 earnings of $1.07.

What could these consensus-builders possibly be putting into their spreadsheets that predict Q3 earnings below Q1?

Don't worry, i am sure they will adjust accordingly as it gets closer. It amazes me that there is no deadline for this and they can adjust anytime they feel like it.

 

[capster]

You know what is funny about this statement? my wife is so quick to point out FUD on $TSLA and makes it a point to 'rub it in my face', i have just learned to stay quiet until she starts asking the question "When can we retire..." and my answer is "I do not know about you but $TSLA has made me enough that i can"

Having started dating again after a divorce a couple of years ago, I’ve heard quite a bit of negativity about Musk (unjustified and exaggerated imho) from women and have had a couple of initial encounters go south in a hurry because of this.

So I think this is a real thing and something for investors to be aware of. ‘This’ being both biased content and skewed recommendations in feeds.

Of course once the street gets all the shares they think they can, they’ll be happy to roll them into a fund and sell them back to retail—for a price—with the press singing their praises.

edit: I also know a few women who are positive about Musk. Alas, they are taken.

 

[Mengy]

So Yahoo has consensus Q3 earnings at $1.05. That's below the actual Q1 earnings of $1.07.

What could these consensus-builders possibly be putting into their spreadsheets that predict Q3 earnings below Q1?

Yeah, that is kinda hilarious actually.

 

[Electroman]

Yeah they own multiple Goddard school. His house is worth 3.5 mil and I'm pretty sure he could care less if his Lucid becomes a paperweight .

That is comfort that makes him buy Lucid.

 

[larmor]

So Yahoo has consensus Q3 earnings at $1.05. That's below the actual Q1 earnings of $1.07.

What could these consensus-builders possibly be putting into their spreadsheets that predict Q3 earnings below Q1?

The street is pouring money into their spreadsheets, since a beat on earnings is generally a positive for the equity. Shhhh no one tell them that TSLA trades in opposite world...

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574193494436069377