TSLA started the 2020s at $28.30. We closed at $276 today. That bad decade is going pretty well so far.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TSLA started the 2020s at $28.30. We closed at $276 today. That bad decade is going pretty well so far.
I dont have my charts in front of me as Im at the airport...but will update them once P&D is out and post them here. Either way, if you just do ASP and run-rate while Tesla shows two quarters of proof that they can handle another two gigafactories of output...you get to around the market cap that relates to that share price.
There's several macro black swan factors running that I think is just all about climate change.
1. I still think the Ukraine War was likely a land grab for Russia because most of that country is burning at a way faster rate than the rest of the planet and a last ditch effort for Russia because its been so baked into Oil & Gas. Putin doesn't want to make the transition to renewable for whatever reason.
2. The Tonga Volcano and moisture in the atmosphere temporarily warming the planet even further. Thus, worse disasters and a greater need for Tesla's products and services to replace failing infrastructure.
Tonga's volcano sent tons of water into the stratosphere. That could warm the Earth
3. Midterm elections will be over with in the US
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Recent insights, perspectives and articles from a variety of Capital Group investment professionals.
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4. $5T in money that need to spent somewhere and the initiatives supporting the Inflation Reduction Act are a good spot
Traders Who ‘Just Want to Survive’ Sit on $5 Trillion Cash Pile
From stocks to bonds, credit to crypto, money managers looking for somewhere to hide from the Federal Reserve induced storm battering virtually every asset class are finding solace in a long reviled corner of the market: cash.
www.bloomberg.com
This is all without calling out major things that are in Elon Musks' purview such as Starship orbital launch, AI Day, Semi launch, and calling out 2023 eoy expected run-rate in the Q4 2022 earnings call...and whatever the hell else they are planning as a team.
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Tesla breaking above the previous ATH that was reached while the market was in pure insanity mode would be truly monumental in this new environment of negative macro forces like reducing liquidity, interest rate hikes, recession fears, and overall global economic turmoil
That doesn't mean such a move in valuation wouldn't be justified but that the stock market doesn't always represent what is justified. Where short-term market moves break from long-term reality, that's what I would call an opportunity.
That doesn't mean such a move in valuation wouldn't be justified but that the stock market doesn't always represent what is justified. Where short-term market moves break from long-term reality, that's what I would call an opportunity.
Also, much like Facebook vs Tesla comparisons over the years...if Tesla Bot is as good as advertised, then I think investors will have to ask the question if Tesla has now reached Google and Apple territory of market cap valuation. I think that happens within the next year.
I think we'll see ATH by early April at the latest. The economic situation looked quite bleak to most in March of '20, and we know how long that lasted. I'm not really expecting that quick of a recovery and rally here, but I wouldn't rule it out either.
because Elon doesn't like 1K, and we will keep splitting ...
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Inflation directly benefits holders of debt with fixed interest rates. Inflation has macroeconomic costs that negatively affect everyone, but it's hard to generalize the net effect on the individual level who benefits and who is harmed.
When currency depreciates in value, the value of debt in terms of real purchasing power diminishes. Most debt is used to enable ownership of assets such as a house, car, or stock in a business. All else being equal, the value of assets such as these will increase in proportion to inflation, especially if the inflation is solely caused by an increase in the money supply and not because of other macroeconomic factors like decreased aggregate supply or increased aggregate demand.
If I buy a house with a $500k loan and then 20% inflation suddenly happens, the house probably would be worth $600k but I would still owe only $500k, so my net equity would have increased by $100k. Likewise if I'm a struggling 20-something buried under student loan debt, or a working class mom with credit card debt and a car loan.
Inflation does directly hurt whoever is holding cash or who has bet on the future purchasing power of cash (i.e. lenders).
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
In specific instances like that, sure. But looking at the whole picture for an individual, a reasonable and strong argument can be made that the negatives far outweigh the positives.
That now-$600k house costs you more in upkeep (all the trades coming out charge more), more in energy costs (those went up, and usually much higher than the average for inflation), etc. And those prices nearly never come down.
You may have "made out" because your LTV (loan to value) dropped, but that's about all you benefited on. Everything else has increased in cost for you.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
But you are leaving out the "tax" side of things. If wage inflation happens, then the IRS is pulling in more revenue from taxpayers to cover that debt.
Absolutely, debt servicing cost has gone up, but the cash flow to cover that has also gone up.
The real question is - which goes up faster?
If they're only offering $100 for 15 minutes, I don't know how much influence these influencers are going to have. Might as well get a bunch of nobodies on Fivrr.
Captkerosene
Member
AID2 dreams:
I'd like to see some of the stuff that makes a product real:
- site selection for the factory
- estimated margins
- delivery date
- volume estimates
Bot could river dance while juggling four pizzas and playing the Kazoo, but, if we don't build it ... we got nothing.
Just a thought: I think they're going with the terminator look on the industrial bot, but could we fashion the domestic bot to look like Gordon? Gordon, wash the dishes. Gordon, cut the grass. Gordon, give grandma a loofa bath.
I'd like to see some of the stuff that makes a product real:
- site selection for the factory
- estimated margins
- delivery date
- volume estimates
Bot could river dance while juggling four pizzas and playing the Kazoo, but, if we don't build it ... we got nothing.
Just a thought: I think they're going with the terminator look on the industrial bot, but could we fashion the domestic bot to look like Gordon? Gordon, wash the dishes. Gordon, cut the grass. Gordon, give grandma a loofa bath.
Ah, so that's Gordo's mom. Makes sense. Her avatar is quite disingenuous. No surprise there.
Indeed. If these "Influencers" have genuine credibility and a big voice, $100 would barely scratch production costs for 15 minutes of an episode.
Seems like they are maybe targeting the bottom of the barrel YouTubers.
MountainRatMat
Member
Same question applies to you, what's your reasoning?
Let's just assume Tesla only gets to 10 million vehicles, half their target of 20 million vehicle target by 2030 because the world is a terrible place for 8 more years.
That would put the P/E somewhere under 20.
Hard to imagine a company growing at 25% per year for the next 8 years has a P/E under 20.
Note: I just took the 50% per year projected growth that Tesla has stated on their earnings calls and cut it in half.
Lots of assumptions here but seems quite reasonable that Tesla outperforms these assumptions.
Among all the potential stock catalysts that are steadily approaching, one seems underappreciated by many investors: the unveiling of Tesla's "in development" robotaxi.
Bears who doubt that Tesla can keep growing vehicle sales for decades fail to understand that Tesla could potentially sell NO vehicles sometime after FSD is complete, and yet earn astronomical profits. Tesla could divert all vehicle production to robotaxis owned by Tesla, and become a transportation utility, similar to their current expansion into an energy utility.
Such total diversion of vehicle production is unlikely, but this "worst case" scenario shows the ignorance of any worries about peaking vehicle sales. Tesla don't need no stinking vehicle sales, when Tesla Network is unleashed. Replacement of the current 1.4 billion motor vehicles on Earth would take 14 years if production is 20 million per year and one robotaxi replaces five current vehicles. Long before that, Tesla's purpose-built robotaxi (low-cost, long-lived, maybe self-cleaning like some public restrooms) could bankrupt most other automakers.
This is one reason why FSD completion will be a Transportation Singularity that changes everything.
Bears who doubt that Tesla can keep growing vehicle sales for decades fail to understand that Tesla could potentially sell NO vehicles sometime after FSD is complete, and yet earn astronomical profits. Tesla could divert all vehicle production to robotaxis owned by Tesla, and become a transportation utility, similar to their current expansion into an energy utility.
Such total diversion of vehicle production is unlikely, but this "worst case" scenario shows the ignorance of any worries about peaking vehicle sales. Tesla don't need no stinking vehicle sales, when Tesla Network is unleashed. Replacement of the current 1.4 billion motor vehicles on Earth would take 14 years if production is 20 million per year and one robotaxi replaces five current vehicles. Long before that, Tesla's purpose-built robotaxi (low-cost, long-lived, maybe self-cleaning like some public restrooms) could bankrupt most other automakers.
This is one reason why FSD completion will be a Transportation Singularity that changes everything.
Im surprised here at the underestimating the Tesla Bot program by quite a few of y'all! Im optimistic
Remember this?
I gotta believe between SpaceX, Dojo, FSD......they already HAD the abilities to make this product work potentially instantly during the first AI day on the software side.., but it was more about the capital allocation and focusing on getting the 2 factories into production vs manufacturing something new.
Im prepared to be wowed. This is the best of the best.... making basically a life sized action figure. I picture this as a TOY.... because that's what I believe creating this is going to feel like for Teslas engineers. Childs play for them?
I don't consider the product as a toy, I FULLY see its appeal to the world in terms of manufacturing, help at home, and much much more.
Foreman? Door men? Drivers Ed Instructor?
Remember this?
I gotta believe between SpaceX, Dojo, FSD......they already HAD the abilities to make this product work potentially instantly during the first AI day on the software side.., but it was more about the capital allocation and focusing on getting the 2 factories into production vs manufacturing something new.
Im prepared to be wowed. This is the best of the best.... making basically a life sized action figure. I picture this as a TOY.... because that's what I believe creating this is going to feel like for Teslas engineers. Childs play for them?
I don't consider the product as a toy, I FULLY see its appeal to the world in terms of manufacturing, help at home, and much much more.
Foreman? Door men? Drivers Ed Instructor?
navguy12
Active Member
Isn’t that how they planned to pay for the Vietnam War costs…until the surprise oil crisis in ‘74 created the stagflation issue?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
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