Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jeewee3000]

By "solved" it doesn't mean it's done as it's obvious in 2015, there were no autonomous cars on the road. "Solved" mean in theory sort of like splitting the atom before it was actually done. I believe Elon still think this is true that in theory it's solved and that Tesla will solve the problem. Elon is way wrong on the timing and the difficulty no doubt but he hasn't waivered that Tesla will solve it and I believe him. Sometimes it's that unwavering belief that drives a company.

This. He says the same thing about Starship: "I'm certain success is in the set of possible outcomes now, whereas years ago I was not certain of this."

With FSD he knows it's doable or in his words 'solved'. In other words: the physics of our universe allow it.

Elon became more careful with his wording since 2015/2016. Now he always puts a caveat in his FSD predictions. Now it's along the lines of "I'm highly confident that so and so".

So yeah, he made communication errors, but given all the good he's doing for humanity I can forgive him slip ups like this. It's important to think more broadly than solely as a TSLA investor with only money in mind.

 

[Cobbler]

This is potentially dumb to write out, but I am pretty sure Tesla reaches $450-$500 over the next 5 months

I'll join you :

This is potentially dumb to write out, but I am pretty sure Tesla reaches $1450-$1500 over the next 50 months

 

[jw934]

China extends NEV tax credit by another year to end of 2023 (as expected). Average comes to US$2390/vehicle on average. =14230/(3.97*12/8)

China extends purchase tax exemption for NEVs to end of 2023

The purchase tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be extended to the end of 2023, Chinese authorities said on Sept 26.

english.www.gov.cn

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Interesting release that has to be signed by all attending AI Day 2022.

First, I believe the event runs from 1700h to 2300h. That's a LOT longer than expected.

Second, the extensive release indemnifies Tesla against guests' deaths, injury, etc. from a ride or transport in a vehicle. There's other interesting language as well; it all causes me to go out on a limb and suggest guests will be riding FSD Teslas to demo Tesla's FSD progress, perhaps with a "Robotaxi-like" event?

I'm sure someone will post the exact release verbiage for a more detailed parsing, but let us contemplate the SP possibilities should we finally end up in an "underpromise and overdeliver" scenario on the 30th . . . .

Better buckle up folks.

 

[jeewee3000]

Interesting release that has to be signed by all attending AI Day 2022.

First, I believe the event runs from 1700h to 2300h. That's a LOT longer than expected.

Second, the extensive release indemnifies Tesla against death, etc. from a ride or transport in a vehicle. I'll go out on a limb and suggest guests will be riding FSD Teslas to demo their FSD progress, perhaps with a "Robotaxi-like" event?

I'm sure someone will post the exact release verbiage for a more accurate parsing, but think of the SP possibilities should we finally end up in an "underpromise and overdeliver" scenario on the 30th . . . .

Better buckle up folks.

Please don't generate hype. This happens every single time and then the algos/paper hands complain afterwards.

Let's just wait and see. (And I'm always wowed by what is presented, but I never expect SP increases. This has not happened with any of the investor/recruiting days.)

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Please don't generate hype. This happens every single time and then the algos/paper hands complain afterwards.

Let's just wait and see. (And I'm always wowed by what is presented, but I never expect SP increases. This has not happened with any of the investor/recruiting days.)

Normally, I'd concur with your thoughts.

Except the release language is quite intriguing, perhaps identical to the Roadster or CT demo events? Others are sure to provide more detail for more accurate deconstruction, BUT:

Why have such language for, ahem, an "AI" event, unless . . . .

Yes, it's possible the legal department just dusted off an old release and copy-pasted it for this event, but it just doesn't feel like that.

We'll need someone with a copy of the Roadster or Cybertruck event releases to provide more color. Again, it's an "AI" event--something's not adding up and we may, finally, be seeing a heck of a surprise on the 30th. Perhaps Karpathy's sabbatical is a well-deserved rest from solving FSD?

Going to sleep now so let's see what details others can provide in the hours ahead.

 

[saniflash]

Normally, I'd concur.

Except the release language appears quite unique, perhaps identical to the Roadster demo event? Others are sure to provide more detail for more accurate deconstruction, BUT:

Why have such language for, ahem, an "AI" event, unless . . . .

or maybe they just copy/pasted the indemnification agreement from the last event and lawyers said it cannot hurt to have this provision in there because Tesla is a car company.... who knows

 

[WarpedOne]

This happens every single time and then the algos/paper hands complain afterwards.

So what? Let stupid be stupid, I gladly take their money.

 

[aubreymcfato]

'This’ being both biased content and skewed recommendations in feeds.

This is an underrated issue, IMHO.
In our algorithmic society, feeds are a constant source of "manipolation" of people's minds.
Try to go to a specific Musk tweet, and then check the "suggested" tweets: many of them are all from Trump/Republican accounts, even Republican politicians whom never interacted with him. This is because the Twitter algorithm has decided so.
In this way, we have pro-Musk and anti-Musk bubbles, and after a few years of relentless stream of information (false or true, doesn't really matter) people have their minds made up.
When some of us say that Musk shenanigans do have an impact, we take this into account (at least I do). Algorithms amplify bias and at the moment there is no Ukraine or Iran Starlink news, for example, that can make some people change their mind about Musk.
Now, probably many of you will minimize the importance of this situation, and I agree there is some merit to the "nothingburgerness" of all this (especially regarding demand and fundamentals of Tesla). I agree to that.

Still, I don't think it's beneficial to the *mission* if the most prominent green enterpreneur of the century is despised as it is, and moreover, I always fear about the effects of the "pro-Musk" bubble too: it's not good that he's more and more drawn into a feed of red-only accounts and superficial yesmen who praise him all the time and are there just to shine on reflected light.
It gets into your head, no matter what.
(we live in an age where people radicalize on Reddit and Youtube, literally brainwashing themselves. So I do worry about the whole discourse).

 

[jeewee3000]

Normally, I'd concur.

Except the release language appears quite unique, perhaps identical to the Roadster demo event? Others are sure to provide more detail for more accurate deconstruction, BUT:

Why have such language for, ahem, an "AI" event, unless . . . .

They could just let the guests ride in vehicles equipped with FSD Beta 10.69.2.x. This is what they did at Autonomy Day also. (i.e. driving the latest FSD build). Since most people have never experienced FSD Beta before so it would make sense to let analysts/press/others check it out.

 

[OrthoSurg]

You will know this is termed "assortative mating". I am sure you also know that in humans the medical types play the game the whole time.

Assortative mating - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

« Therefore, males choose to mate with larger females, with the larger males defeating the smaller males in courting them »

Interesting


We’re gapping up this morning +1.72%
I guess the call buying action of yesterday was not for nothing

 

[ammulder]

Nope, with $30 trillion of debt a few percentage point increase in interest rates makes the payments much larger.

To put it in terms that are easier to understand:

$300,000 home loan in 2020 at 2% costs $1109 per month
$300,000 home loan today at 6.5% costs $1896 per month

A difference of almost $300,000 in total paid over the life of the loan

My point was, all our present national debt originated back in the day... "in 2020 at 2% cost" in that analogy... and is now being paid by taxes collected from people who are earning more thanks to inflation and using the modern dollar supply. The amount and interest rate of that debt doesn't increase to keep up with inflation. When my dad says he used to buy a sandwich at the Woolworths for a nickel, we were accumulating debt in those dollars! We have WAY more dollars now to pay it. Sure, NEW debt will come with higher amounts and rates now, but it'll be a small fraction of the total national debt. Besides, isn't this part of the reason the Fed targets 2% inflation? The national debt would be much more costly if they targeted 0%. With modest inflation compounding, it continually makes our national debt easier to pay, while allowing modest wage increases to keep up with modest price increases and so on.

Speaking of which, someone else said average salaries haven't gone up yet. I have no economy-wide numbers, but that sure wasn't my impression. In software, the raises "for retention" have been handed out like candy over the last year, and people who switch jobs can in some cases get +50%. Maybe that has slowed a bit since "big tech" announced some layoffs and hiring freezes, but there's still been a lot of "wage inflation" in this area in this industry over the last year, and good people are still hard to find. From the number of hiring signs in convenience stores, it's hit the lower end of the economy too. But like I said, that part I can't back up with wider numbers.

 

[spacerfc]

Having started dating again after a divorce a couple of years ago, I’ve heard quite a bit of negativity about Musk (unjustified and exaggerated imho) from women and have had a couple of initial encounters go south in a hurry because of this.

So I think this is a real thing and something for investors to be aware of. ‘This’ being both biased content and skewed recommendations in feeds.

Of course once the street gets all the shares they think they can, they’ll be happy to roll them into a fund and sell them back to retail—for a price—with the press singing their praises.

edit: I also know a few women who are positive about Musk. Alas, they are taken.

Unfortunately Elon Musk does seem to have a popularity problem with the ladies, there's a ~20 percentage point gap between his popularity in men vs women (55% vs 34%), a problem he shares with a few other public figures such as Neil deGrasse Tyson, Buffett and some Republicans. But his overall popularity is still on the rise quarter by quarter (44% in Q2 vs 41% in Q1) so I don't think this is a big issue for TSLA.

Source: Elon Musk popularity & fame | YouGov

 

[Speedr117]

23,109! So much for demand in China cooling!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574710915110678528

 

[CitizenKane]

Having started dating again after a divorce a couple of years ago, I’ve heard quite a bit of negativity about Musk (unjustified and exaggerated imho) from women and have had a couple of initial encounters go south in a hurry because of this.

So I think this is a real thing and something for investors to be aware of. ‘This’ being both biased content and skewed recommendations in feeds.

Of course once the street gets all the shares they think they can, they’ll be happy to roll them into a fund and sell them back to retail—for a price—with the press singing their praises.

edit: I also know a few women who are positive about Musk. Alas, they are taken.

You talk about Musk on dates?

 

[ZeApelido]

Likely more Reuters FUD, 93% of new maximum production rate sounds like the usual actual : maximum production rate.

Planned output at Shanghai for rest of year at 1.1 million cars / yr. That seems... in line with expectations?

Exclusive: Tesla to keep output at upgraded Shanghai plant below maximum -sources

Tesla plans to hold production at its Shanghai plant at about 93% of capacity through the end of year, despite a recent upgrade, two people with knowledge of the matter said, in a rare move for the U.S. maker of electric vehicles.

www.reuters.com

 

[KMCC]

Can we clear out the 3 or 4 obvious/admitted trolls at some point before P&D then the run up to earnings?

At least we could get rid of Gordo's mom? She has really been a pain in the neck on here..

 

[mongo]

Likely more Reuters FUD

Planned output at Shanghai for rest of year at 1.1 million cars / yr .

Exclusive: Tesla to keep output at upgraded Shanghai plant below maximum -sources

Tesla plans to hold production at its Shanghai plant at about 93% of capacity through the end of year, despite a recent upgrade, two people with knowledge of the matter said, in a rare move for the U.S. maker of electric vehicles.

www.reuters.com

Just so we are all clear, that is 93% of the total new capacity which saw a 30% increase due to the upgrades.
20,500 cars per weeks vs 22,000 theoretical maximum production rate.
i.e. you never expect to hit 100% of capacity.
Body of article is better than headline...

 

[phoggy123]

My point was, all our present national debt originated back in the day... "in 2020 at 2% cost" in that analogy... and is now being paid by taxes collected from people who are earning more thanks to inflation and using the modern dollar supply. The amount and interest rate of that debt doesn't increase to keep up with inflation. When my dad says he used to buy a sandwich at the Woolworths for a nickel, we were accumulating debt in those dollars! We have WAY more dollars now to pay it. Sure, NEW debt will come with higher amounts and rates now, but it'll be a small fraction of the total national debt. Besides, isn't this part of the reason the Fed targets 2% inflation? The national debt would be much more costly if they targeted 0%. With modest inflation compounding, it continually makes our national debt easier to pay, while allowing modest wage increases to keep up with modest price increases and so on.

Speaking of which, someone else said average salaries haven't gone up yet. I have no economy-wide numbers, but that sure wasn't my impression. In software, the raises "for retention" have been handed out like candy over the last year, and people who switch jobs can in some cases get +50%. Maybe that has slowed a bit since "big tech" announced some layoffs and hiring freezes, but there's still been a lot of "wage inflation" in this area in this industry over the last year, and good people are still hard to find. From the number of hiring signs in convenience stores, it's hit the lower end of the economy too. But like I said, that part I can't back up with wider numbers.

Just to be clear the US gov only pays interest on its debt. So its not like they were able to do something logical like utilize once in a lifetime interest rates to pay down debt.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

This is potentially dumb to write out, but I am pretty sure Tesla reaches $450-$500 over the next 5 months

Swimming up stream is very hard.