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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I'm not talking about his delivery estimates. His EPS/Margins estimates are clueless and it's not just being him being conservative. His estimates tell me he doesn't understand why GM's went down in Q2 verses Q1 and thus he has no clue as to what's about to happen to GM in Q3.
His EPS estimates tells me he has absolutely zero clue about how operating margin gets impacted by volumes and especially, how it gets affected during production ramps. This despite having plenty of examples from 2020-2021 where Tesla went through large production ramps and we saw what happened to profit per every $ of revenue growth. If you remember that timeframe, Gary's estimates were laughably low on EPS especially because for whatever reason, he doesn't understand operating leverage.
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For the macro's at least, this week's trading represents a huge high stakes back n forth around the June lows and will determine a lot about what happens over the next 1-2 months. I'd expect a lot more back n forth for the rest of this week. Probably early next week as well until.
If I had to guess, we rally after this week for about 2 weeks, a brief sell off leading into Sept CPI numbers.........and then we'll find out what direction everything is going.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I'll join you:
This is potentially dumb to write out, but I am pretty sure Tesla reaches $1450-$1500 over the next 50 months
$1,450 in 4.167 yrs would be about 48% CAGR - not far off from TSLA's historic growth rate. Also what shortzes & hedgies are working hard to avoid...
Cheers to the Longs!
Gary showing he's rather clueless as to how Tesla's business works when it comes to how production ramps affects Tesla's earnings. Q2 was the absolute worst gross margins Tesla was going to deal with for the foreseeable future since Austin/Berlin were early in their ramp and their costs moved from R&D to COGS and also that Shanghai was running way below the capacity it was during Q1, which was also a big material hit to gross margins. Then add in in the restructuring costs from all the layoffs.
I view $1.30 Non GAAP EPS (which is what Gary's estimate is, a Non GAAP EPS estimate) to be the baseline as long as deliveries are above 360k. I guess this is a positive because when even Tesla bulls grossly underestimate earnings, it's a big beat........but still Gary. That's terrible analysis
I know deliveries are 86K
... but for 50% annual growth, I think we need 420K for Q3 and Q4 ...
..so I think 380K for Q3 and 440K for Q4 is needed if we want to meet 50% annual growth ... cheers!!
A lot of money for all 50 states. It seems that they need to include at least 4 chargers, 50 miles apart and within 1 mile of the major highway.
Feds cover 80% of cost; states 20%.
I think this is good but they have years to do it from my readings. Of course the connectors might not be optimal but still adapters are readily available.
theparadise.ng
Feds cover 80% of cost; states 20%.
I think this is good but they have years to do it from my readings. Of course the connectors might not be optimal but still adapters are readily available.
Department of Transportation approves EV charging plans for all 50 states | The Paradise
By Kris Holt
theparadise.ng
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This national debt issue is mostly overstated. Firstly, a large portion of the debt is owed to other parts of the Federal Government. ie: for decades, receipts for Social Security outweighed payments. By law, the US Gov't is required to put that surplus into Treasury Notes, which appear as 'debt' in the national books. That looks 'bad' when viewed without the paired revenue. This accounts for about 25% of the US National Debt: (more here)
The Federal Reserve also forgives interest payments on certain US Gov't debt (in theory, the FED is owned by the U.S.A), but this is more difficult to quantify. Paging @unk45 for insights.
In reality, it's interest payments on Foreign Debt that is the main issue. I think that also resolves to a 'Balance of Trade' issue, which the USA is handling well right now IMO with its focus on 're-shoring' manufacturing. Green energy, EVs, and battery minerals are leading the push, and we will all benefit from that.
It'll be fine...
Chairs!
Wow, 6 hours for the event on the invite! Bullish! (I need to re-think my drinking schedule)
Maybe they'll have on-site jupyter notebooks attached to Dojo to real-time train the bots? /s (would be super cool though)
Maybe they'll have on-site jupyter notebooks attached to Dojo to real-time train the bots? /s (would be super cool though)
Leaving 3 hours so attendees can do Cybertruck hot laps on the new adventure course they've built on campus.
/s
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Clearly, this new site rented by Tesla (1501 Page Mill Rd, Palo Alto, CA as reported on Oct 12, 2021) is for AI+Robotics R&D:
Tesla to expand presence in Palo Alto despite HQ move to Texas -source | Reuters
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/NRLMN75CQ5JPLMNEPKAFQEQK2M.jpg)
Tesla to expand presence in Palo Alto despite HQ move to Texas -source
Tesla Inc has agreed to lease office space from HP Inc near the electric carmaker's current headquarters in Palo Alto, California, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
Not a huge surprise, but Hertz reports very strong demand for their Tesla rentals:
finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Tesla rental demand 'very, very solid,' Hertz CEO says
Tesla looks to be an early hit on the Hertz platform, said Hertz CEO Stephen Scherr.
finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Your Mom
Banned
People keep thinking that we're going to blast off when there's no catalyst.
Even if Tesla reports strong deliveries and earnings, rising interest rates and poor macros will weigh on the stock. It doesn't mean that Tesla will drop, but I can see a scenario where the overall market stays flat/down for a decade while Tesla only goes up 2X rather than the 10-20X that people are expecting.
It is foolish for anyone to fight the Fed. Bears fought the fed for the entirety of last decade and they got destroyed. Now the bulls are fighting the Fed. I don't expect them to win.
Even if Tesla reports strong deliveries and earnings, rising interest rates and poor macros will weigh on the stock. It doesn't mean that Tesla will drop, but I can see a scenario where the overall market stays flat/down for a decade while Tesla only goes up 2X rather than the 10-20X that people are expecting.
It is foolish for anyone to fight the Fed. Bears fought the fed for the entirety of last decade and they got destroyed. Now the bulls are fighting the Fed. I don't expect them to win.
When you are evacuating how does a $20 savings on supercharger help, especially for someone owning a Tesla. ?
maybe for the rare case where they dont have a working credit card on file for whatever reason and didnt think they needed to fix that until they suddenly do have to run fast instead of charge at home.
You beat me to it. It's just a nice goodwill gesture for 99%+ of Tesla owners, but there might be a family or two that have to bug out in a hurry, for whom it could be a big deal.
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
It's 1 less thing to worry/think about. (i.e. your credit card on file is set to expire/lost/stolen/canceled) or charge a bit more than you normally would to get further inland.
Also, they in the past they have temporarily increased the range of cars that would be hit by the hurricane:
Sept 2017: Tesla extended the range of some Florida vehicles for drivers to escape Hurricane Irma
Oct 2018: Tesla remotely extends car batteries to help with Hurricane Michael
Aug 2019: Tesla to unlock extra range and free Supercharging for cars in Hurricane Dorian's path
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Last hurricane Tesla owners had less trouble than ice owners. The Supercharger network stayed up and gas couldn’t be pumped because no electricity for the pumps. My S will have a full battery and I plan to camp in it if the power goes out.
well, our experience with .2 has been pretty bad. Couple improvements for sure but in general a step or two back. Less minor mistakes but the amount of lethal mistakes is much higher including completely illegal mid intersection lane changes that cut right across traffic. Unsupervised this version will kill you faster than any other version we have had. On the plus side the successful manoeuvres it does make feel much more natural and human like. Overall still enjoy being a beta tester but more than ever beta testers need to pay attention and be ready to react.
Jmho.
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