Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

Great for the mission. Just annoying when TSLAQ uses cars like these (that would lose in a head-on crash with a bicycle) to say that competition is coming for Tesla....

This is good for city driving at low speeds. Most of the traffic is around 20 to 40 mph in many towns and cities.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is one of the things you’ll see Tesla’s competitors and detractors try to draw attention to. Since legacy automakers are quite adept at “refreshing” their vehicles every 2 years and offering a large variety of colors, they will seek to encourage consumers to “stand out from the crowd,” “be your own person.”

I’m not sure it’s a problem for Tesla so long as the product remains superior from an efficiency, tech, safety standpoint. And then I’m sure Tesla can pull the “refresh” lever if they feel so compelled. I think we’re still a few years out from that.

Or get some advertising $ to offer free colors wraps with their logo (big one free, smaller costs more - pay to shrink it).
Consider robotaxis will be moving on streets at 2-10X % Utilization. Who knows, this could be a new "channel" if done cheaply. How about a home team on the hood for 25% off?

 

[Ogre]

It's worth remembering that while the outward appearance of Tesla's line-up remains relatively static over time, there have been dozens and dozens of meaningful improvements to the vehicles over the years.

I don't think this is even a comprehensive list, but this site documents 44 changes made to the Model 3 alone, for example: Tesla history of model changes by year

Uncommon thing about this is it is going to make the used car market really weird down the road. “What year is your car” isn’t enough to really tell what features your car has. Mine is 2021, but doesn’t have most of the refreshes people who bought in 2nd half 2021 enjoy.

 

[EVMeister]

This is good for city driving at low speeds. Most of the traffic is around 20 to 40 mph in many towns and cities.

Crash safety is still important at lower speeds!

 

[MartinAustin]

Becoming a Texla issue in some areas...

Very funny. When Tesla sales really start to fall because competitors are winning buyers with their larger variety of models... Tesla can easily release into more segments. Sure, I would like to see something to rival (for example) the Suburban & Escalade. But it doesn't sell enough to bother with yet.

More paint colours would be an easier way to increase perceived variety.

 

[thesmokingman]

Tesla has a lot of space for significant changes to the existing cars or new models. They just don’t see the need right now. Demand is fine, car performs fine, they have more important things to do than rearrange the furniture or make 7 different cars that do the same thing slightly differently.

A lot of auto companies update their designs specifically to stimulate demand. If the designs aren’t different enough, people are more likely to just hang onto their 5 year old car for another year or two unless there is some really compelling change in the car. Tesla doesn’t have problems with demand. Nor do they have problems with adding compelling updates to their cars.

In other words… whatever new Tesla comes out will be functionally different. Either smaller and more efficient or bigger and much more capable.

This. And having a bunch of profit weak models that overlap is a legacy issue. Going that route is counter to Tesla's philosophy. It's also not conducive to Giga castings. It's exactly the problem that the Chinese have who are trying to copy Tesla with castings are running into. How can one invest billions in casting when you don't have a single model that can scale to meet the required run rate to make the cost worthwhile, etc...

 

[Ogre]

The good news about the proliferation of Teslas is there are still very few people buying the red ones so mine still stands out in a crowd at least a bit. I still feel like I got ripped off on the paint job, but at least I know which one is mine when I come out of the movie theater. Mines the one with the bike rack

I do wish they had a nice green color and brighter blue though. That would make the color choice for the next purchase a bit tougher.

 

[traxila]

Legacy auto does major model changes to force buyers to upgrade (nobody wants a dated car) and to allow them to batch all of their changes all at once, minimal as they are. Always funny to see people claim that say the Model S is "dated" and needs a refresh as it tells me they know jack about Tesla. There isn't much that a 2022 S shares with a 2015. Software, sheet metal, frame, motors etc. etc.

I'd love to upgrade my Model 3 but then I'd lose FSD Beta. If they offered some sort of FSD transfer or even a discount I'd do it tomorrow.

Get a trade in offer. I discovered that Tesla was the only one assigning value to my FSD. I assume it was because the new car has FSD as well. At the time they offered me 10K more than anyone else, and FSD was 10K then I believe.

Although I still have not been allowed to have the FSD.

 

[SmartElectric]

Btw, EVs other than Tesla has pretty bad resale value. The Model 3/Y usually depreciates little or you may even make a profit. However other car branded EVs under 60k depreciates like a rock[/URL]

This is not even remotely true in Ontario Canada. I've owned 5 (!) EV's and all retained value better than any of the 10 gas cars I've owned.

And against your point, our 2013 Tesla has retained value well, but NOT any better than our non-Tesla EV's, in fact the 2018 Hyundai Ioniq EV is worth nearly exactly original MSRP on the used market.

There is a massive market for less expensive EV's, and right now. Not everyone can afford $50K+ CAD for a used Tesla.

 

[Singuy]

This is not even remotely true in Ontario Canada. I've owned 5 (!) EV's and all retained value better than any of the 10 gas cars I've owned.

And against your point, our 2013 Tesla has retained value well, but NOT any better than our non-Tesla EV's, in fact the 2018 Hyundai Ioniq EV is worth nearly exactly original MSRP on the used market.

There is a massive market for less expensive EV's, and right now. Not everyone can afford $50K+ CAD for a used Tesla.

Uh okay. I provided sourced US data and you provide anecdotes from Canada. Maybe you are right about Canada, and both can be true.....

 

[raffiniert]

If you need an argument on Teslas safety, read this (german):

NCAP-Crashtest: Deutsche Teslas mit Bestnoten bei der Qualität

Im Berliner Werk hergestellte Model Y sind von Testern als überzeugend in Sachen Sicherheit bewertet worden. Tatsächlich sicherten sich die Fahrzeuge eine nahezu rekordhohe Punktzahl.

www.finanzen.net

Quotes:

The Tesla vehicle built at the Gigafactory in Grünheide near Berlin apparently convinced the safety testers across the board: "The Model Y built at Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory scores an impressive 97 per cent for adult occupant protection and a near-perfect 98 per cent for Safety Assist, with full points for its lane support and the new driver monitoring system based on a cabin camera. In Euro NCAP road tests, the Model Y's camera-only vision system performs remarkably well in preventing collisions with other cars, cyclists and pedestrians," the safety testers summarised the results in a press release.

"Congratulations to Tesla for a truly outstanding, record-breaking score for the Model Y. Tesla has shown that only the best is good enough for them, and we hope they will continue to strive for this goal in the future," commented Euro NCAP Secretary General Michiel van Ratingen on the test results.

 

[dhanson865]

Nice to see someone tracking these changes, Ryan Shaw said according to his sources (internal to Tesla) there have been 30 revisions to the ModelY suspension alone. Wish we could get that granularity in these reports!

I wish the people running sites like that and the youtubers that make videos about the changes would learn the difference between laminated glass and double paned glass.

Laminated glass (LG) is a type of safety glass that holds together when shattered. In the event of breaking, it is held in place by a thin polymer interlayer, typically of polyvinyl butyral (PVB), ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA), lonoplast polymers, cast in place (CIP) liquid resin, or thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU), between its two or more layers of glass. The interlayer, made through heat and pressure, keeps the layers of glass bonded even when broken, and its high strength prevents the glass from breaking up into large sharp pieces. This produces a characteristic "spider web" cracking pattern when the impact is not enough to completely pierce the glass. The thermoset EVA offers a complete bonding (cross-linking) with the material whether it is glass, polycarbonate (PC), or other types of products.

In short double paned would mean there is an air gap (or inert gas filled gap).

Spoiler: double paned

Some Tesla glass is laminated glass. There are no double paned glass windows in any Tesla car ever made.

 

[jerry33]

This is one of the things you’ll see Tesla’s competitors and detractors try to draw attention to. Since legacy automakers are quite adept at “refreshing” their vehicles every 2 years and offering a large variety of colors, they will seek to encourage consumers to “stand out from the crowd,” “be your own person.”

And yet the competition's cars have all looked the same from the sixties forward. Unique styles died after the fifties.

 

[WADan]

Forbes has an article claiming GM will overtake Tesla (no link, not worth it to read):

”By 2030, LMC Automotive estimates GM will outshine every other EV manufacturer with 18.3% of the market share, leaving Tesla in the dust with only 11.2%, followed by Volkswagen and Ford.”

And, due to Ultium platform:

“Now that they have a system in place, production is expected to ramp up quickly and more smoothly than it has in the past. Tesla does not have the same capacity to make vehicles at this scale, lacking the preexisting manufacturing infrastructure, despite the fact that they make only EVs.”

That’s all you need to know. The competition is coming! Hahaha

 

[2daMoon]

Becoming a Texla issue in some areas...

Clearly, you are mistaken.

It has been widely publicized that you cannot buy a Tesla in Texas.
/s

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's only a Teslafornia issue.

It's also Az, the Americas, and global.

We might even have more just White Tesla than Waymo now in Chandler Az. If Tesla were to turn on the switch, a Tesla Network could dwarf Waymo.

By next year, I'll likely have my Tesla go get stuff directly, full use of cameras for confirmation of the goods, security, car washes...

Then we'll be looking talking about a co-op warehouse for Tesla vehicles only, fully automated and integrated. Undercut Fry's, Costco, Amazon for routine products. Have it go out to farms too (if there are any remaining).

They need to be smaller for this stuff... so Robotaxi with some cargo space (or convertible cargo/passenger). Nuts? IDK, what are most Ride-shares carrying today? Food, Products, or People? Sadly, I bet food is #1 in this region anyway, thanks to remote working. So add some Hot/Cold tech in that version which just about reinvents the Roach Coach, and all delivery systems really.

And you should see what happens in 2025! Optimus will be driving non-Tesla vehicles for added Highway Safety (when including the new pay-per-mile insurance called "Trip").

 

[Ogre]

Forbes has an article claiming GM will overtake Tesla (no link, not worth it to read):

”By 2030, LMC Automotive estimates GM will outshine every other EV manufacturer with 18.3% of the market share, leaving Tesla in the dust with only 11.2%, followed by Volkswagen and Ford.”

And, due to Ultium platform:

“Now that they have a system in place, production is expected to ramp up quickly and more smoothly than it has in the past. Tesla does not have the same capacity to make vehicles at this scale, lacking the preexisting manufacturing infrastructure, despite the fact that they make only EVs.”

That’s all you need to know. The competition is coming! Hahaha

There were articles as recent as 2011 which predicted Windows Phone would be the dominant player in the smartphone industry within 5 years. They quoted IDC who are for some reason respected in that space even though they say things like the above and often publish numbers which contradict those on Apple’s financial statements.

A lot of these analysts get paid by the existing major players (legacy auto) for large amounts of “market research”. The same analysts who frequently get quoted in the press (who also take large amounts of advertising dollars from those same companies).

It’s all done in a sort of arms length arrangement. Forbes gets to quote a “Respected Analyst”, they get to collect advertising dollars from GM. There was never an agreement to pay for that content… was there?

 

[insaneoctane]

Leo KoGuan makes Forbes 400....

An Elon Musk superfan made the Forbes 400 list after snapping up Tesla stock during the pandemic

With a net worth of $7.2 billion, Leo KoGuan outpaces hedge-fund billionaire George Soros and philanthropist Melinda French Gates.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Bobbyducati]

It's only a Teslafornia issue.

definitely a NOVA problem, and probably a greater DMV issue as well. I think new colors would go a long way.

 

[Fred42]

Forbes has an article claiming GM will overtake Tesla (no link, not worth it to read):

”By 2030, LMC Automotive estimates GM will outshine every other EV manufacturer with 18.3% of the market share, leaving Tesla in the dust with only 11.2%, followed by Volkswagen and Ford.”

And, due to Ultium platform:

“Now that they have a system in place, production is expected to ramp up quickly and more smoothly than it has in the past. Tesla does not have the same capacity to make vehicles at this scale, lacking the preexisting manufacturing infrastructure, despite the fact that they make only EVs.”

That’s all you need to know. The competition is coming! Hahaha

GM's plan to go from almost nothing to production of EV's in very large numbers in a short period of time is fraught with risk IMO. It might not allow time for them to learn what they did wrong with the vehicles or with manufacturing and make changes without compromising their ramp.