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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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GM's plan to go from almost nothing to production of EV's in very large numbers in a short period of time is fraught with risk IMO. It might not allow time for them to learn what they did wrong with the vehicles or with manufacturing and make changes without compromising their ramp.

Do you think GM actually plans to surpass Tesla by 2025?

I can't help but take anything GM management says as anything other than pure fantasy. "Serious" journalists should be too embarrassed at this point by previous comments to take them at face value at this point.

I strongly suspect GMs gravestone is going to say "General Motors, 19XX — 2025, died by pouch cell battery fires"
 
Who on TMC will be next?
I realize you’re probably joking but last time this came up a few months ago there were claims of at least a couple members with >$100M in TSLA. Wouldn’t be surprised if some of us actually do become billionaires, especially those who have call options with good timing during a giant bull rally.
 
1) use AirBnB app to find locations with chargers, obviously
2) use AirBnB app to find locations served by nearby Tesla robotaxis
3) use AirBnB to actually summon cars at certain times... perhaps for scheduled events
4) share AirBnB and Tesla account information... at least, have a specific account selected for robotaxi billing etc.
5) release your own Tesla into the robotaxi network at AirBnB locations you've driven to
6) AirBnB app programmed for Tesla MCU? You can browse new locations to stay at when you're on a roadtrip sitting at a Supercharger... or while riding around in a robotaxi. Your Tesla account can store credentials for your AirBnB account so that you're automatically logged in. (similar to Netflix, etc.) People will say "you can just use your phone for that!" but... it's cool to have an additional 15-inch-plus display at your disposal, if you're a power user... because you can have other stuff running on your phone.
 
TSLA has closed up for 3 straight sessions and near its high today, just falling short of its 50-day SMA (simple moving average). Meanwhile, it appears that that SMA will soon surpass the 200-dsay SMA in a Golden Cross. That could be quite bullish.

That's the good news. However, I'm in the midst of a major hurricane; its eye has just grazed near my home. I've been ordered to stay in my house. There was no evacuation order due to my 30-foot elevation. So far, only one tree in my yard is down. My brother's winter home four miles to my south was under an evacuation order yesterday due to its 1-foot elevation beside a canal that leads to a river that empties into the Gulf. When it's safe, I'll inspect his property.
 

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Eh I'm annoyed as hell about how TSLA gets pushed around simply due to the options markets, but it's just the way it is until we get actual data that fundamentally makes TSLA cheaper on a valuation model which then forces the stock higher..............and then we get to enjoy the stock being pushed around by options at that new/higher valuation level 🥴 .

Unless P/D numbers come in as a significant beat (I'd say higher than 370k), the stock might still be under the control of MM's leading into earnings. However that's when I expect a step up in "base" valuation for Tesla and opens up a new/higher range where MM's will play with it. I still think the lows TSLA hit back in June (the TTM P/E & Forward P/E lows) are the "baseline" in terms of how institutional investors view TSLA to be "cheap" or "attractive".

I think this is an important thing to point out because TSLA actually bottomed before the macro's bottomed and then refused to go any lower even when the macro's went lower. So TSLA's TTM P/E hit a low of 81 back in June. If Tesla does something like 1.35 GAAP EPS for Q3, at 300/share, guess where TSLA TTM P/E would be at?........................81 😅

Could Wall St try to keep TSLA pinned to that TTM PE of 81 metric for all of Q3? Sure, they could. But if I use conservative GAAP EPS for Q4, at 300/share, TSLA's TTM P/E drops to 50-55. If TSLA prints the earnings and deliveries I think they will, then TTM PE drops into the 40's. I think MM's won't put themselves in that situation because that makes options trading entirely one sided and the volume on Puts would disappear because everyone and their mom knows the direction of the stock quarter after quarter if the stock is already at it's(or well below its) baseline valuation metrics.
Listen to yourself. You're not wrong. TSLA needs to, and shortly will, splode. The only unknown is the definition of "shortly".

I think we'll have a nice rational 135 PE on the other side of 4Q earnings. That's just my guess for a likely sploding window. That puts us quite a bit higher than today.
 
That to me would be a bombshell. But it's not going to happen. Haven't seen nearly enough anecdotal evidence of Semi's being made in those numbers. From what I've seen, I'd guess there's not even 100 Semi's out there yet.

But even if Tesla just announced that they will deliver 1,000 Semi's in Q4, it would still be a bombshell announcement.
The ramp plan would be how WS would value it.

So, an example ramp plan of 10k units in 2023, 50k in 2024 and a steady state of 100k/year in 2025 (~$200k). And 50% profit, then that would be $20B revenue, net revenue of $10B annual. Would add >$50 to the share price I'd think.
 
I realize you’re probably joking but last time this came up a few months ago there were claims of at least a couple members with >$100M in TSLA. Wouldn’t be surprised if some of us actually do become billionaires, especially those who have call options with good timing during a giant bull rally.
I would be happy being a peasantry deca millionaire, which i was closing in on until Powell and macros caused a huge speed bump!
 
I fail to see why anyone would be happy or content with today's action. What crap-tacular day of trading. I'm just loving whatching TSLA be spoofed into obliviion as the macros do an end of close rally 🥴

Especially when it's crystal clear as to why TSLA is trading like it is today. And it's also why there's zero reason to be excited about days like yesterday. Stock is clearly still in the hands of MM's.
That moron at CITI came out this morning banging the table on his sell rating.

Maybe this had an effect today?
 
Likely to be on Sept 20. with 4.61M contracts traded.
Link: Yahoo Finance

But that just my guess and not for certain because the chart only show the trade volume and not the open contracts.

This web site provide historical option chain details, but need a subscription to access historical data to compare Sept 20 vs 21..

View attachment 857817

Someone bought 3002 x $330c on Sept 20 when OI was just at 7,399. The total premium was $1,801,200. A few 6 figure trades followed that one.

Whoever opened that trade is now down $1.5MM 😜



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Joe Gebbia (Airbnb co-founder) appointed to Tesla's board.

Here's Tesla's SEC filing: tsla-8k_20220925.htm

Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers.
(d)
On and effective as of September 25, 2022, Joseph Gebbia was appointed to serve as a member of the Board of Directors

No webpage for Mr. Gebbia yet, but this should be the placeholder: Joseph Gebbia | Tesla Investor Relations

In the meantime, here's his wikipage:


Personal life​

He lives in Austin, Texas.
 
Listen to yourself. You're not wrong. TSLA needs to, and shortly will, splode. The only unknown is the definition of "shortly".

I think we'll have a nice rational 135 PE on the other side of 4Q earnings. That's just my guess for a likely sploding window. That puts us quite a bit higher than today.
Until the Fed pivots, I seriously doubt TSLA trades above a PE of 125. Mostly like 100-115. Which is fine with me. That's a near 50% gain in share price to over 430-450 share price after Q4 earnings.