Is that 373k number accounting for the roughly 11k carried over from Aug though? Meaning if production was high enough, about 92-95k, then there’s enough inventory for them to export 10k and still deliver 90k+
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Much of the AI Day hype has been coming from Elon. On the Q2 earnings call in July he said this:
He has also said we’ll get “a lot” of updates about Dojo and that they pushed it back from Aug 19th to Sep 30th to enable an Optimus demo. We’ll get “lots of technical detail and cool hardware demos”. AI Day might go over most people’s heads because of how technical it will be, just like Autonomy Day and Battery Day and AI Day 2021, and it might not affect the stock, but we will definitely learn a lot of crucial information to inform our models and we’ll also get demos. I doubt it’s just going to be basic stuff like walking around, picking up boxes, and climbing stairs.
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The Accountant
Active Member
In my latest 373k estimate, I was expecting Shanghai to delivery 98k in Sept with 90k Sept Production and 8k from inventory (production in prior months not yet delivered). If 10k of the 90k produced in Sept are now targeted for ships for October delivery, it will move sales from Q3 to Q4.
Maybe we see a stronger number out of Fremont to make up for this in-transit Shanghai inventory.
There's a bit of guess work here . . . I am by no means a Production & Delivery expert; I dabble in it to feed my financial model.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Lotsa big after hours fake-out spikes today for AAPL, TSLA, MSFT and others. Did we decide these are large options executions or just blips in the data feed?
It's be nice to actually understand why such craziness appears from time to time. I assume it's Ken Griffin printing another quick $20-50M.
It's be nice to actually understand why such craziness appears from time to time. I assume it's Ken Griffin printing another quick $20-50M.
The Accountant
Active Member
From what I understand, the 364k is the consensus compiled by Tesla's Investor Relations department (average of 26 analysts)
I believe the consensus compiled by Bloomberg is 358k.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Jordan is going to have it torn apart, not display it. Plus the epoxy is a bonus, he can flame test it and analyze that as well.
My name is Inigo Montoya...
Guys we’re so off topic here.
Where’s the discussion about TSLA trading like a dog again today and being spoofed nonstop while the macros rally??????
Gonna love reading Gary Black’s random excuse for TSLA trading terribly today
nah gary’s not even worried about TSLA anymore, hes so fixated with elon and twitter hes glitching like he’s burned too many synapses
I think there are some unreasonable expectations about Optimus but I keep seeing it echoed that tesla is only 1 year into it.
I could be wrong but I doubt when they announced their intentions to make Optimus that they hadn’t already committed quite a bit of time to it covertly.
When they announced teslas would be fully self driving someday circa 2016 they didn’t have it solved, but they had engineered the cars to all have cameras and laid out a great deal of their groundwork.
Elon didn’t wake up, say “let’s build a robot” and then immediately hold a public event to find people interested in working on the robot team.
I think most people realize this but it bears repeating, software and hardware don’t start the minute your rank and file engineer opens a CAD file or writes the first line of code. A lot of important work is done before then. The same way a skyscraper doesn’t get started when you put in the foundation.
A ton of geological surveying and other high level planning goes into stuff to make sure there’s a point to starting the project.
With AI related stuff that is cutting edge there is a little more “figure it out as we go” than normal but I’m pretty confident that A LOT more planning went into the slide on that specs sheet than “ya that sounds good”
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364k deliveries sounds about right to me. I've arrived at my 365k estimate through my own in depth mathematical analysis. Jk, but I'm sticking with it anyhow.
Unless we pop 30 points tomorrow, really not to worried about a post Optimus let down in SP.
A miss on the P and D OTOH, could result in a bit of a down draft, despite the record quarter it already is.
A miss on the P and D OTOH, could result in a bit of a down draft, despite the record quarter it already is.
I can't remember what quarter or year it was, but Tesla being a miss from analyst expectations WHILE being a record quarter was spun the other way...to the positive the one time I remember it happening post 2019...
...anyone remember what quarter/year it was?
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'Twas the night before AI day, and all through the house, not an option was trading, not even by mouse
Deep learning was hung by the demos with care, while we hoped for marvels Elon soon would lay bare.
Spoiler alert: A contrarian take on Optimus. For economic, rather than technical reasons.
strangethingintheland.wordpress.com
Deep learning was hung by the demos with care, while we hoped for marvels Elon soon would lay bare.
Spoiler alert: A contrarian take on Optimus. For economic, rather than technical reasons.
Optimusal?
Had to rush to get the trash out to the curb this morning, as my wife could already hear the truck moving down our street. Along the path towards automation, I became witness to a transition moment…
strangethingintheland.wordpress.com
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
As a reminder, Elon said RT would be a cross between Uber and Airbnb. Perfect recruit.
Tesla Robotaxi to shake up rideshare and hospitality industry: Opinion
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Live in 21 hours:
Best threads for in-depth discussion:
Investor Engineering Discussions
Tesla AI day
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot
H/W 4.0 technical discussion
H/W 4.0 discussion (investors)
Dojo discussion
Forget about TSLA for a bit - today will be a moment in history that only a few will witness in real time.
Best threads for in-depth discussion:
Investor Engineering Discussions
Tesla AI day
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot
H/W 4.0 technical discussion
H/W 4.0 discussion (investors)
Dojo discussion
Forget about TSLA for a bit - today will be a moment in history that only a few will witness in real time.
Another thing I would like to see from AI day 2 is how they are going to build an ecosystem around AI.
Agree with the worries about hype, I am more looking for the AI use foundations, not flashy demos, have they got a firm base on which to build over the next few years. That will necessarily be technical, but I hope with my software background I will understand enough to make an assessment, but very few will probably fully understand the information presented. A bit like battery day where nuances of what was presented are still coming out.
For those of us in Europe, that is going to be the middle of the night through to early morning, I suspect few of us will witness in real time.
Won't we all experience today in real time? Unless our lives truly are a simulation? Kidding, I get your meaning, but I'm not really expecting anything ecstatic. Now, the first orbital launch of Starship on the other hand...
Oh boy. Showing the fingers actuating.
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Production and deliveries are both likely to be 50% up YoY and also massively up QoQ.
Compared to other OEMs and major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, etc. that is a really impressive. It also shows that Tesla can grow unit sales (and likely revenue) at 50% even in difficult times, which is what they said they would do. So it would be quite easy to spin P&D as possitive.
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