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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You haven't been paying attention. Why don't you start with watching every second of this without skipping:
and when you are done, i will show you 100+ others.

Thanks for the link. Interesting stuff. BTW, just to give you an idea of Tesla's scale and reach, that good Cruise video released last year was seen by 91K people, while last night's AI Day video has already been seen by 1M people.
 
Well this prediction I made on March 31, 2022 panned out:


So, Teslabot will have a 2.3 KWh battery pack (equivalent to 1 human liver's worth of glycogen-stored energy), that's the 'first principles' way to spec out the 'bot. But what else does this slide show? The pack appears to be a 14s-2p configuration of 4680s (52V / 3.7 V/cell = 14 cells).

Awesome prediction, and incredible power efficiency if Tesla actually pulls this off. BTW, any bot is going to need the most energy dense batteries available, which at this time means nickel. If you want to diversify, or invest in different 5x return companies, investing in graphite, lithium and nickel producers isn't a bad bet.
 
Yeah I feel like the a lot of it got lost after we saw the first Bumble-C. People would have paid more attention if Optimus was under a cover and Musk pulls it and shows a much sleeker V1 that is optimus. Maybe show off some arm articulation and that's all. How optimus came out with 4 guys frantically trying to carry him out on a rolling pole and then Musk had to explain how it can't walk was just so clunky and lost a lot of the message. Remember how people were wowed at V2 of the raptor engine because it's like half the complexity? That's all they needed.

Honestly so much of the commentary is treating this like some kind of product unveil, having been accustomed to productions from Apple and others. The only goal was to attract talent, which I am sure they did. Nothing else matters because that will dictate the success and pace of this project moving forward. If the world wants to laugh at the presentation because it was lame or unpolished or poorly thought out, have at it and enjoy. I doubt the target audience was concerned about these things.
 
Since this is the investor thread, it should be pointed out that Optimus is currently immaterial to the valuation of TSLA, and will remain immaterial for at least three more years, and likely many more than that.

Is this kind of analysis even allowed in this thread? :)

Yes, you are right, won't matter at all for the next three years as far as P/E goes since they aren't going to be selling any in that time frame.

But, it will attract some investors nonetheless. I bought a position in Google simply because they have a lot of interesting long term technology in addition to their money printing machine. It just adds to the investment thesis.
 
Curious to get input on reports of price drop in China perhaps makes sense with the increased availability
 
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Curious to get input on reports of price drop in China perhaps makes sense with the increased availability
Tesla China has already said it’s false
 
Curious to get input on reports of price drop in China perhaps makes sense with the increased availability
Filing this under rumors as there's conflicting sources in this article saying the opposite.
 
Lots of chatter on social media about Credit Suisse and/or Deutsche Bank being on the brink of collapse, with the Fed potentially convening an “emergency” meeting on Monday to discuss.

Hadn’t seen it mentioned here yet. Not surprising, but could validate a lot of the doom prophets.
Nice, that will drop the 10 yr nicely. May even spool up that money printer.
 
My biggest concern with Tesla’s AI is the lack of self-learning. Every improvement has to be trained on a neural net and pushed in a software update. When FSD beta does something stupid, I can’t give it real time feedback and say “don’t drive in the cross hatch area, it’s not a lane.” I can press the feedback button and send the FSD team a feedback email, but I still have to wait until the next software release to see if there’s improvement.

Yes! This is a huge difference between current Tesla AI technology and what a human can do, and thus AGI. Instead of all those inane questions last night, I would have loved if someone asked, but what about continuous learning? Do you think you'll need the bot to be able to learn real time in the field as opposed to run a pre-programmed neural net?

I don’t think Tesla will allow true self-learning because it will make Tesla Bot too unpredictable (Skynet becoming sentient,etc). I hope they can find a way to automate feedback so when Teslabot makes a mistake, it automatically gets fast-tracked and prioritized in Dojo to retrain the neural nets and push an update by the next day. “Teslabot, quit crashing through the sliding glass door after you windex it”. “Feedback received and submitted to Dojo priority list, expect improved glass recognition in 69 hours”

Well, I suppose the last thing you want is for someone to teach a robot how to shoot a gun. Indeed, that "minor" part wasn't addressed last night in any detail at all. Sure you don't want the robot to accidentally squeeze your finger too tight, but you also don't want it to squeeze a trigger.

So ... as robots become more sophisticated, they need to have even more sophisticated behavior restrictions. Yes, Asimov's three laws of robotics are all very nice, but geez, those are very complex concepts in those laws. How the heck do you teach a traditional neural net about those concepts? My prediction is that you can't, and you need a much more robust AI that is several steps towards AGI.