Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Maybe Elon will buy back his sold TSLA soon…when does that become a possibility/TWTR deal outcome determined?

2 weeks maybe....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Found out why $TSLA was dropping like crazy today, it is not because of the delivery miss....

 

[lascavarian]

We are getting close to the 600s (pre-split) on the back of record earnings. Just wow.

We don't know earnings yet do we?

My observation is that the ability to produce vehicles is growing as more production resources come online. This will not slow.

At the same time the ability to support an increasing installed base must precede simple delivery tweeking or customer satisfaction may be impacted more broadly.

The 4th quarter is going to be important in assessing how the support infrastructure is proceeding. Is the wave solved as of the 3rd quarter?

Of course I am a little bummed by the market today but it is self-delusion to excuse the delivery mis-step on the wave fix. It appears to me that the delivery mis-step is a demonstration of the failure to solve the wave problem. Would not the solution to the wave problem be demonstrated by the reduction of "in delivery" inventory. Seems a worthy goal.

It would be wonderful to have this new board member focus on global support operations.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm still genuinely shocked that it was this bad on a green macro day. This is some serious BS.

Correcto! Exactly describes why TSLA is a really good buy IMO. The price does not match reality, we all know it's worth more. It is BS.

For many, good luck finding the bottom.
And congrats to those who don't get phased by this noise. I'm not quite there yet, but there's hope.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Correcto! Exactly describes why TSLA is a really good buy IMO. The price does not match reality, we all know it's worth more. It is BS.

For many, good luck finding the bottom.
And congrats to those who don't get phased by this noise. I'm not quite there yet, but there's hope.

Member since 2016 and still getting phased by the noise??

 

[SmokyPeat]

Just couldn't resist this buying opportunity, so I liquidated most of my non Tesla portfolio and bought Jan. '25 300c leaps. Feeling good about it!

 

[DarthPierce]

Was gonna get margin called, so I sold some shares at a loss an bought jan25 240s. I wish us all good luck.

 

[Christine69420]

In Norway car sales is down 18.6% compared to last year. But the amount of electrics is climbing to 77.8% so far this year. And the amount of hybrids is falling fast - more than 60% down this year.

And a certain brand sell very well and took 25% of the market this September:

The situation YTD is also good - compared to full year 2021:

Source: Stabil elbilandel – men fortsatt klar nedgang i nybilsalget

 

[SOULPEDL]

Found out why $TSLA was dropping like crazy today, it is not because of the delivery miss....



View attachment 859550

Where GM is getting their batteries from - Tesla Battery Ramp in Sparks Nevada?
(Not)

Tesla reportedly set to begin Giga Nevada expansion

Tesla opened Giga Nevada in 2016, but only built out about 30% of what was proposed in the original plans. After years of prioritizing the battery cell production ramp inside the facility, Tesla is reportedly [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Ogre]

In Norway car sales is down 18.6% compared to last year. But the amount of electrics is climbing to 77.8% so far this year. And the amount of hybrids is falling fast - more than 60% down this year.

And a certain brand sell very well and took 25% of the market this September:

View attachment 859561

View attachment 859562

The situation YTD is also good - compared to full year 2021:

View attachment 859563

Source: Stabil elbilandel – men fortsatt klar nedgang i nybilsalget

Given Tesla's delivery model I really find "Monthly" delivery numbers for any particular region to be less than helpful for any non-US deliveries.

Whether or not it's a month where a shipment has landed makes for huge swings in deliveries. Trailing 3 months would be a much better metric.

Honestly, I kind of wonder if this isn't true for other brands as well.

 

[Krugerrand]

I must admit, I used to think that posts of this nature from @Krugerrand were simply bullish rah-rah go-team type rants.
This changed for me when I watched the Joe Justice video about how Tesla management: how Tesla holds each employee accountable directly to the mission.. the mission which has evolved from "get transportation on to electric" (Tesla Motors era) to "get industrial civilization off of fossil fuels" (Tesla Energy era) to now "solve the most intractable projects for humanity?" (Optimus+FSD+Dojo AI era)? (I think we could have an essay just on that evolution)
Not everyone watches videos, but that one - since Joe worked there and helped them with their management - is entirely from Joe's Tesla experience and somewhat mind blowing. I don't have the link but YouTube will doubtless find it easily for you.
I really don't think any other company out there is holding employees accountable to their globally significant corporate mission using in-house AI that notices when teams form and talks to them to model their impact on the mission in a days + dollars way, reporting progress on said mission with monitors in house and on personal phone apps.
This directly leads to the sort of over-the-top SOUNDING but probably not over-the-top ACTUAL statements from folks like @Krugerrand who have been watching this company quite a bit longer than me.

No box to put Tesla in indeed ... A horse of a different color, or perhaps one with wings!

(found a way to buy more shares at this price. Bargain Monday indeed!)

Pfft! That’s not even me being or trying to be bullish. I don’t flounce around here saying Tesla to (pick an outrageous SP) or to a 10T valuation. I don’t flounce around estimating top end production or delivery numbers; indeed, I do the opposite to try and keep people realistic. I don’t even categorize myself as ‘bullish’ because I see the uphill climb to save us from ourselves as climbing Everest during a winter storm wearing only a thong.

 

[Krugerrand]

Dude...

Dude, yourself. None of his human flaws are relevant to the success of Tesla - OBVIOUSLY. So what’s your point in insisting he’s not perfect? Because you can’t help yourself gambling against the house? So you can feel good about yourself and your lack of positively affecting the human race even a fraction of what he is?

Let’s just go on record so you don’t have to keep bringing this up - Newsflash! Elon Musk is not perfect!

 

[brantse]

Found out why $TSLA was dropping like crazy today, it is not because of the delivery miss....



View attachment 859550

A few weeks ago I was just about ready to trade in my 2013 S for a new Bolt EUV. I'm waiting for my day 2 cybertruck reservation, and thought maybe I'd get a Bolt to avoid any maintenance issues with my old S. It would almost be a straight up trade (cost wise). What killed the deal for me is the fact that you can't even fit a set of golf clubs in the trunk. It's called an EUV (Electric Utility Vehicle) and you can't even put golf clubs in it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Uncle Leo says:

KoGuan Leo on Twitter: "I deployed my umbrella to catch 40,000 sharp knifes at $248.88/knife, hence, 40,000 less knifes hitting our courageous and wise Tesla bulls. We are not scare for we are the bulls. Now I have 22,800,000 shares of Tesla. I will buy more whenever I have the cash." / Twitter​

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KoGuan Leo on Twitter: "Be extra cautious! Please catch the sharp knifes with your cash, not margin borrowing. Because more storms coming with scary looking knifes falling down from dark clouds. Tesla is having PE ratio compression that can be solved only by buyback and/or by 2x earnings increase." / Twitter​

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Uncle Leo says:

KoGuan Leo on Twitter: "I deployed my umbrella to catch 40,000 sharp knifes at $248.88/knife, hence, 40,000 less knifes hitting our courageous and wise Tesla bulls. We are not scare for we are the bulls. Now I have 22,800,000 shares of Tesla. I will buy more whenever I have the cash." / Twitter​

​

KoGuan Leo on Twitter: "Be extra cautious! Please catch the sharp knifes with your cash, not margin borrowing. Because more storms coming with scary looking knifes falling down from dark clouds. Tesla is having PE ratio compression that can be solved only by buyback and/or by 2x earnings increase." / Twitter​

We shake couches and Uncle Leo deploys umbrellas. We have been doing it all wrong this whole time!!!

 

[elasalle]

Was gonna get margin called, so I sold some shares at a loss an bought jan25 240s. I wish us all good luck.

Monitoring mine in personal account, have a 110K cushion. While I did buy more calls today, need to start thinking of how I can generate max losses without selling core shares have PUTS in other names which are also all red .... which I will likely let go 1st to get margin improvement.

 

[ninpb]

We shake couches and Uncle Leo deploys umbrellas. We have been doing it all wrong this whole time!!!

Times like these, I'm sure I'm not the only one that day dreams of winning the lotto only to buy more TSLA with it. In the other thread, to sell puts.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yep. No matter how well Tesla performs there always seems to be something knocking it back down. This market is so fearful that any little tiny thing results in hugely negative reactions. Record quarter and we're down 8%+. It's why I feel we'll trade mostly sideways for a year or so despite growing production at 50%, there is just too much fear in this market to allow any stock to break out right now. There will always be some reason to hold it down until the macros turn around, and I just don't see that happening anytime "soon".

We'll break out eventually, it's inevitable, but I think the spring's going to compress for the next year or two.

We share sentiment in the near term (this quarter and maybe next if Tesla whiffs on hitting 50% growth for 2022) but I very much disagree that the spring is going to compress for another whole year, and especially not 2 years.

I can't even being to imagine how anyone could make an argument for a stock to be trading Forward P/E of 35-40 after posting YoY earnings growth of over 100%...................and that's exactly where TSLA would be after Q4's earnings if the stock was still 300/share. And that's based on what I consider fairly conservative GAAP EPS of $2.

That alone doesn't compute.....even if you're incredibly pessimistic. But fast forward a year and Tesla is posting quarterly EPS of $5 at minimum. Now you're talking about a Forward PE of just 15.

Sounds a lot like irrational fear/pessimism to me. If Tesla doesn't stick to their 50% growth next year, their P/E multiple will definitely come in some. But it won't be anywhere close their earnings growth.....with means the stock still goes up considerably all throughout next year.

 

[woodisgood]

We shake couches and Uncle Leo deploys umbrellas. We have been doing it all wrong this whole time!!!

Yep. That’s why he’s Uncle Leo and we’re all just nieces and nephews.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Remember we are just getting started...
Sell some if you need to.
HODL if you can.

Today's timing is good for me. It is soon time for me to transfer some TSLA shares to the scholarship fund I created this year.
The transfer allows me to fund the institution, get full value for the shares donated, and avoid paying capital gains on the donated shares.

Of course, I could do none of this without the entire Tesla team (led by Elon) and this TMC forum. Words cannot express how much I value this online community. I humbly thank you all.

This was my celebration today.

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A gentle reminder...this was October 25, 2021. I think history will repeat itself in this quarter...
Do not allow the noise to drown out the signals.