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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Hope Elon uses both his piggy banks .. TSLA and SpaceX, not just TSLA ;)
Don't worry, Elon will make it as painful as possible for TSLA shareholders like usual. Never in my life have I seen a CEO bend shareholders over like Elon has done for the past year.

Before anyone starts replying with the typical TMC comments of "Don't invest money you can lose", "Hold and everything will be fine", "You have to have a invest horizon of many years" and so on........you can be holding long and believe in the long term value and still admit Elon has torpedo'd shareholders/Tesla employees like no CEO in history has done.

Shareholders and employees as well have to deal with life and the unpredictably it brings. I personally know multiple people that are investors that invested in a responsible way (no options, no margin) and just had some life events happen that forced them to sell. These are people that had been invested fornearly two years.

I personally know one Tesla employee that had to a family event happen that required them to sell RSU's in the past 4 months. This person wasn't planning on having to sell a large % of her RSU's, but life happened. And she's pissed.......and rightfully so.
 
Does anyone know more about the point @Thekiwi brought up about the impact that the drastic shift in US$ exchange rates will have on 2023 vehicle pricing? I'm not even sure how to start researching this one but it's important because it looks like it could materially affect gross margins in Q4 and next year.

What I'm mainly wondering:
  1. To what extent is Tesla hedged against forex changes, if at all?
  2. How much of this is mitigated by the fact that most of Tesla's sales outside the US are coming from Berlin and Shanghai and so the costs are in yuan and euros?
  3. What reasons might Tesla have had for not updating local prices in response to in some cases 20%+ swings in exchange rates in the last six months? I mean if I can actually buy a Tesla in New Zealand for the equivalent of US$38k right now before sales tax, what's stopping people or companies from buying them in bulk and shipping off to resell in the US for a $20k profit? I don't understand.

Tesla's 10-Q says they generally don't hedge forex risk.


I found @unk45's post about this, but I don't know how to attempt to translate this to ASP and COGS forecasts.
@Gigapress
This does not address all your questions, but perhaps the analysis will help shed some light on the impact of Fx swings.
I am computing a Q3 negative Fx impact of $0.04 per share when compared to Q2.

1664901899451.png


I have provided more details in the other thread here: Q3 Fx Impact Details
 
If this Twitter news is true I'm encouraged to see the acquisition happening sooner than later, and look forward to seeing all that Elon does with it.

This delay over the details was never significant, but it did reveal a lot of info about how Twitter is being run. I expect that both users and advertisers will be relieved to see competent management being performed at all levels.

In the long run, the potential for conversion of the Twitter foundational aspects into Elon's inspiration for an X.com platform should be yet one more significant step toward a better world for all.

This should put an end to those who were insistent that Elon truly wanted out of the purchase.
 
If this Twitter news is true I'm encouraged to see the acquisition happening sooner than later, and look forward to seeing all that Elon does with it.

I don't care at all about Twitter, but I am excited for this whole buying Twitter mess to conclude so the overhang on TSLA is done with. Time to move on and get this out of the way so our stock can breathe a bit.
 
Don't worry, Elon will make it as painful as possible for TSLA shareholders like usual. Never in my life have I seen a CEO bend shareholders over like Elon has done for the past year.

Before anyone starts replying with the typical TMC comments of "Don't invest money you can lose", "Hold and everything will be fine", "You have to have a invest horizon of many years" and so on........you can be holding long and believe in the long term value and still admit Elon has torpedo'd shareholders/Tesla employees like no CEO in history has done.

Shareholders and employees as well have to deal with life and the unpredictably it brings. I personally know multiple people that are investors that invested in a responsible way (no options, no margin) and just had some life events happen that forced them to sell. These are people that had been invested fornearly two years.

I personally know one Tesla employee that had to a family event happen that required them to sell RSU's in the past 4 months. This person wasn't planning on having to sell a large % of her RSU's, but life happened. And she's pissed.......and rightfully so.
She could also be thankful she had the RSU to sell ... many don't ...and life happens to them...
no sympathy for TSLA investors here
 
… Demonstrated that the AI can water a plant; this is even more impressive. …
So, yeah, HODL
Just one quibble: Optimus demonstrated it can pour water from a watering can into a planter that has houseplants in it. That’s a fantastic start, but not sufficient.

Properly watering a houseplant requires judgement. The waterer should keep an eye on the turgor of the leaves and how dark/dry the soil is. Then, the waterer should decide whether to water and how much to water. The frequency of watering is a function of the conditions which can vary, even indoors, especially if the plant is exposed to direct sun some days and not others.

Often it is nice to water a bit, let that water soak in and then water again. It is good to avoid getting water on the floor or to mop up an overflow. No doubt there are edge cases to consider as well.

I doubt Optimus was demonstrating that level of competence. This is not to say that Optimus wouldn’t be a superior waterer to most people: People more often overwater than underwater.

Indeed a simple algorithm—provide this much water to such-and-so sized plant that often—might be sufficient for Optimus to outperform often negligent human houseplant caretakers; this assuming Optimus can gauge the rate of water flow from the can and fill it competently. There are plant identification apps out there so Optimus might readily identify the plant (though the app I use, which also identifies mammals, identifies my Standard Poodle 🐩 as a domestic sheep 🐑 🤷‍♂️).

Still, we should be clear about Optimus’s level of competence in performing a task. Alas, I suspect we cannot yet check off the box that says Optimus can water houseplants.

Of course I agree that we should HODL.
 
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Overall though, Tesla is likely managing a nice double-dip here by adding FSD. Presumably, they had "purchased" these vehicles off lease for less than $25k.
Upgrading a car with FSD that was developed in-house at Tesla's own expense is not "double-dipping" unless you are as illogical as the people who identify as TSLAQ. It costs millions of dollars of employee time to develop the software. Would it be "double-dipping" if Tesla detailed the car, put new tires on and repaired some dents so they could sell it for more? When my daily driver was a Volvo, Volvo charged me too much money to download software patches to get the car to run properly (in warranty). That was a scam and could loosely be called "double-dipping" since they sold me a car and wanted to charge more to make it work properly.

The price of FSD is what is funding development of DOJO which is, ultimately, what will enable FSD. Further, if it is determined a hardware upgrade is needed to fully implement FSD, Tesla will use revenues received from FSD sales to pay for the upgrades. Double-dipping is TSLAQ FUD.
 
She could also be thankful she had the RSU to sell ... many don't ...and life happens to them...
no sympathy for TSLA investors here
TMC right on cue with a condensing post 🥴 😅 This place never fails to have plenty of condensing people. Only TMC will tell an employee that part of their compensation that they rightfully are entitled since they work at a company is something they should be "thankful to have"

How's the view up there from your high horse?
 
Just one quibble: Optimus demonstrated it can pour water from a watering can into a planter that has houseplants in it. That’s a fantastic start, but not sufficient.

Properly watering a houseplant requires judgement. The waterer should keep an eye on the turgor of the leaves and how dark/dry the soil is. Then, the waterer should decide whether to water and how much to water. The frequency of watering is a function of the conditions which can vary, even indoors, especially if the plant is exposed to direct sun some days and not others.

Often it is nice to water a bit, let that water soak in and then water again. It is good to avoid getting water on the floor or to mop up an overflow. No doubt there are edge cases to consider as well.

I doubt Optimus was demonstrating that level of competence. This is not to say that Optimus wouldn’t be a superior waterer to most people: People more often overwater than underwater.

Indeed a simple algorithm—provide this much water to such-and-so sized plant that often—might be sufficient for Optimus to outperform often negligent human houseplant caretakers; this assuming Optimus can gauge the rate of water flow from the can and fill it competently. There are plant identification apps out there so Optimus might readily identify the plant (though the app I use, which also identifies mammals, identifies my Standard Poodle 🐩 as a domestic sheep 🐑 🤷‍♂️).

Still, we should be clear about Optimus’s level of competence in performing a task. Alas, I suspect we cannot yet check off the box that says Optimus can water houseplants.

Of course I agree that we should HODL.
You are asking for perfection that even human can’t do. I would be ecstatic if Optimus can water my plants when I am away!
 
TMC right on cue with a condensing post 🥴 😅 This place never fails to have plenty of condensing people. Only TMC will tell an employee that part of their compensation that they rightfully are entitled since they work at a company is something they should be "thankful to have"

How's the view up there from your high horse?
We have gaseous individuals on TMC that are in the process of condensing? Great Scott!

Sorry, couldn't help myself...

:)
 
TMC right on cue with a condensing post 🥴 😅 This place never fails to have plenty of condensing people. Only TMC will tell an employee that part of their compensation that they rightfully are entitled since they work at a company is something they should be "thankful to have"

How's the view up there from your high horse?
a very good view indeed ...not being condescending ... just realistic ...

and also you asked for it .. so i complied with your request :)
 
Nice, another one overhang gone! Super excited to see what Elon can do with Twitter. Gonna reach out to thetalkingmule@twitter today with a cash offer for the handle.

Covid (as I sit here with covid)
Runaway oil
Twitter

Rampant Inflation
Putin

We might have these all crossed off by Thanksgiving, and fully behind us by Groundhog Day. Onward and upward!