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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I have deep concerns about his ability to direct a social media company since his own use of social media is horrific. It's so bad I can't even raise the worst examples for fear of having my post banned by the moderators.

So, you think Elon bought Twitter for the social media aspect, do you? 🤔 There seem to be quite a few in this camp who really have no idea what his plans are for creating his decades-long dream of X.com

Sure, social media might have a small part in it. I'm sure he can delegate that to someone competent.

Those things that Elon excels at will become a much bigger part.
 
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The claim was that Elon critics were mindless haters who can't see any good in anything he does. I demonstrated that I fully embrace his work on cars, spaceships, AI, etc. And a calmly explained why I have deep concerns about his ability to direct a social media company since his own use of social media is horrific. It's so bad I can't even raise the worst examples for fear of having my post banned by the moderators.

Meanwhile what we DO seem to have here is mindless Elon fanbois who can't allow ANY criticism of their savior, regardless of merit. Elon is great at many things, but also flawed. A lot like Steve Jobs. Try to not be the thing you accuse the critics of.


Actually, that was not the claim.
 
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The claim was that Elon critics were mindless haters who can't see any good in anything he does. I demonstrated that I fully embrace his work on cars, spaceships, AI, etc. And a calmly explained why I have deep concerns about his ability to direct a social media company since his own use of social media is horrific. It's so bad I can't even raise the worst examples for fear of having my post banned by the moderators.

Meanwhile what we DO seem to have here is mindless Elon fanbois who can't allow ANY criticism of their savior, regardless of merit. Elon is great at many things, but also flawed. A lot like Steve Jobs. Try to not be the thing you accuse the critics of.
Pointing out he’s flawed is entirely unnecessary and irrelevant. It doesn’t add anything of merit to a discussion. Obviously, as a human he is flawed. You don’t say? So are you, so am I. Who cares? Nobody cares because we’re both nobodies in the scheme of things. People only care to rag on Elon and others of his ilk as a means to placate their inner immature child.

No, I don’t care that you think he’s socially inept and neither do his millions of bot followers, or the mothers of his children, or his employees executing his master plan, or the astronauts hurtling through space.

The ONLY time people come here to trounce all over Elon’s imperfections is when people feel he’s having a negative impact on their portfolios. They lack the ability to control their monetary destiny, so let’s take it out on the guy who’s given them an opportunity to be richer.

What you just did is akin to a journalist who feels a need to find something negative to write about a positive subject in the name of ‘being balanced’. That’s a load of trash.

Here’s how you stop making it about Elon’s faults - get out of TSLA, go buy a different brand of EV, go buy solar and battery storage from another company, don’t buy a Starlink, don’t ride in a Boring tunnel in Vegas, delete your Twitter account etc…. Detach and distance yourself from anything Elon related. Now you don’t have to care even a little bit that Elon might pee in the shower.

FYI, there is nothing Zen about you.
 
At least 3 things came out about FSD during AI Day 2022:
  1. Elon is driving 'single-stack' right now, and thinks it will be ready perhaps by Nov/Dec,
  2. Single-stack is already better/safer than Production Autopilot at Highway Driving, and
  3. FSD Beta v.11 (single-stack) will replace production Autopilot as soon as it is demonstrably safer (Elon says its morally indefensible to not switch ASAP).
One benefit is that ALL new Tesla's will run the FSD code, with ALL Safety Features coming standard on ALL those cars. It's only the 'convenience features' that will be extra-cost (ie: the FSD Option (like autopark, or lane-change).

Another side benefit to Tesla is that, once all (Hdw 3+) cars are running FSD under the hood, the size of the fleet for the purpose of data/event capture will increase greatly. This will coincide with DOJO reaching operation status for training this larger amounts of data in mere hours instead of weeks.

Chairs! :D

But not worldwide - at least in Germany you need opt-in to use data from the car - they did not fully red-tape sentry mode yet, but it‘s already in a gray area - and sentry is triggered recording - Tesla learning on fleet data of German cars might be tricky.

PS: oops - still 70 pages behind ooOO
 
One concern we have (spouse and I) is that Tesla is getting ready to give away one of their greatest moats in North America. We follow a few other boards, Hyundai, Lightning F150, Bolt etc. They all love their vehicles and would never consider a Tesla (weird tesla hate) but all hate the charging experience of their vehicles with EA or EC or Petrocan or EVGO or whoever. They can’t wait until the end of the year when tesla opens up their charging network to everyone. Then they’ll all have the only advantage of owning a tesla without having to buy a piece of chit tesla.

Just sayin. I don’t see a big advantage of tesla going down this road. And in my opinion will hurt the company in the long term…and short term.

Jmho.
You will get different reactions to your opinion based on whether the respondent is more for the mission or the pure stock performance. The mission is really anti-destroying the competition because that generally puts more EVs on the road faster. Pure stock performance would want to crush the competition and would not share the SC network. IMO, while sharing the network will likely result in reduced costs, possibly increased profits, I have a hard time giving legacy access due to their absolute resistance to the obvious / stupidity. I realize that the mission suggests that we throw them a bone.
 
Pointing out he’s flawed is entirely unnecessary and irrelevant. It doesn’t add anything of merit to a discussion. Obviously, as a human he is flawed. You don’t say? So are you, so am I. Who cares? Nobody cares because we’re both nobodies in the scheme of things. People only care to rag on Elon and others of his ilk as a means to placate their inner immature child.

No, I don’t care that you think he’s socially inept and neither do his millions of bot followers, or the mothers of his children, or his employees executing his master plan, or the astronauts hurtling through space.

The ONLY time people come here to trounce all over Elon’s imperfections is when people feel he’s having a negative impact on their portfolios. They lack the ability to control their monetary destiny, so let’s take it out on the guy who’s given them an opportunity to be richer.

What you just did is akin to a journalist who feels a need to find something negative to write about a positive subject in the name of ‘being balanced’. That’s a load of trash.

Here’s how you stop making it about Elon’s faults - get out of TSLA, go buy a different brand of EV, go buy solar and battery storage from another company, don’t buy a Starlink, don’t ride in a Boring tunnel in Vegas, delete your Twitter account etc…. Detach and distance yourself from anything Elon related. Now you don’t have to care even a little bit that Elon might pee in the shower.

FYI, there is nothing Zen about you.

Elon being flawed was relevant to our discussion because his flaw in the social-skills/media area is directly on top his ability to successfully lead TWTR.

If it is for some random reason impossible to even speak of Elon's flaws (who made up that rule?) it prevents reasoned discussion of the topic at hand.

It may pain you to hear that Elon is not perfect. This doesn't mean it's not true or not relevant.
 
Ford F-150 Lightning base model gets its second price hike even before it is one year old. Now starting at $52,000 🤣🤣🤣

The $39,000 base price was b.s. as I had suspected

Perhaps worth pointing out that Ford's stock F is at exactly the same price where it was at 12 years ago when TSLA went public.
Come Hell or high water they’ll break even on that sucker!
 
You will get different reactions to your opinion based on whether the respondent is more for the mission or the pure stock performance. The mission is really anti-destroying the competition because that generally puts more EVs on the road faster. Pure stock performance would want to crush the competition and would not share the SC network. IMO, while sharing the network will likely result in reduced costs, possibly increased profits, I have a hard time giving legacy access due to their absolute resistance to the obvious / stupidity. I realize that the mission suggests that we throw them a bone.
the simple clarity of "the mission" is why i stay invested(multi decade mission) .. opening up SC network is aligned with the mission , therefore it is the right thing for Tesla ... and will likely become another profit center (may be already)
 
You will get different reactions to your opinion based on whether the respondent is more for the mission or the pure stock performance. The mission is really anti-destroying the competition because that generally puts more EVs on the road faster. Pure stock performance would want to crush the competition and would not share the SC network. IMO, while sharing the network will likely result in reduced costs, possibly increased profits, I have a hard time giving legacy access due to their absolute resistance to the obvious / stupidity. I realize that the mission suggests that we throw them a bone.
Ironically, though, the result of sharing I believe isn’t going to help legacy.
 
Screen Shot 2022-10-05 at 4.02.09 PM.png
 
But Elon's lack of skill in using social media does NOT equate to an inability to successfully lead Twitter. The two are not analogous.

I'll have to disagree there. Elon's use of Twitter shows a complete lack of understanding of the biggest challenge Twitter faces: Content Moderation.

To pretend otherwise is silly, but feel free - just don't try to forbid others from pointing it out in the name of "thou shalt not mention Elon's flaws"
 
Elon being flawed was relevant to our discussion because his flaw in the social-skills/media area is directly on top his ability to successfully lead TWTR.

If it is for some random reason impossible to even speak of Elon's flaws (who made up that rule?) it prevents reasoned discussion of the topic at hand.

It may pain you to hear that Elon is not perfect. This doesn't mean it's not true or not relevant.
He hasn’t led Twitter yet. 🙄 Maybe you’d like to wait until he actually owns it and royally flubs it before claiming he can’t do something? You know, like all the people who said Tesla would fail, Tesla would need a JV partner in China, SpaceX would fail etc., etc., Or maybe egg looks good on you?

It does not pain me to know he’s not perfect. I’m well aware. I don’t give a 💩 anymore than I give a 💩 that you’re clearly not perfect.

And no, a reasoned discussion can be had without speaking of a person’s flaws. Happens all the time. Perhaps one of your flaws is that you’re incapable of executing such a thing?
 
These demand concerns are surprising to me. Tesla has so much demand it's ridiculous.

The used car market is the best signal, because Tesla, being a firm with a lot of monopoly power, unilaterally sets prices for new Tesla cars and then accepts whatever backlog comes with that, but in contrast the used market is basically an almost perfectly competitive auction involving many used car firms, and so it provides clearer econometrics indicating how much people actually want Tesla cars.

I just checked the US used car market as an example since it's Tesla's main market. On average, 2022 Teslas are selling for several thousand dollars more than the new price from Tesla.com, although that’s comparing just the base new vehicle price with no extras. I see this regardless of whether I look on Cars.com, CarMax, Carvana, Edmunds, TrueCar, or Kelly BlueBook. You can get a fresh new Tesla for less money than one made earlier this year with a previous owner plus wear and tear from thousands of miles of usage simply by being willing to wait some uncertain number of months for delivery. Even when I sort prices lowest to highest for all model years, I see for example that the cheapest 2020 Ys are listing for about $58k and most of them are around $62k. This data indicates strongly that Tesla is voluntarily and benevolently choosing to charge less than the fair market equilibrium price.

This picture aligns perfectly with what we heard on the Q2 earnings call about demand being so strong they don’t even bother to spend time thinking about it and they think prices are embarrassingly high. I don’t think anything has changed much in the last 10 weeks except for production growing.

Elon: …It's possible that there could be a slight decrease in car prices, but this is fundamentally dependent on macroeconomic inflation…

Emmanuel Rosner -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Yeah. Thank you so much. I have a question on your vehicle demand and then a quick follow-up on supply. First, on the demand side.

Are you seeing any sort of pressure in the order book or the pace of new order or any sort of like slowdown as a result of the pressures that the consumer is experiencing? Are you worried about it in light of your view of the risks to the economy that I think you expressed, Elon?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect


Well, right now, our problem is very much production. So we've long leads on -- as anyone can tell, if they order our car, you order Model Y, it'll arrive sometime next year. So this is clearly not an issue for many months for us. Our problem is overwhelmingly that of production.

So yeah.

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

OK. Maybe just two things to add. Specifically on your question, are we seeing a macroeconomic impact on our demand? Not that I can tell. Maybe a little.


Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Some maybe.

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

But it's not material. The second thing to Elon's point about backlogs, we have a very long runway with very long lead times here. I mean, certainly, the world is uncertain, and we'll have to see where things go with commodity prices, how quickly we're ramping production, what the state of the road looks like at some point next year. But the demand is not something we spend really any time talking about.


Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah. I think it's -- maybe just one thing worth mentioning the -- that there is surface between value for money and fundamental affordability because sometimes people say, "Well, if you got all this demand. Why don't you just raise the price to some -- double the price or something?" And this is usually expressed by somebody who's rich. But there's -- even if you rail value for money to infinity, if somebody does concerns, do not have enough money to buy it, even a product where the desirability is rail to infinity, they basically cannot buy it.

So, this is why you can’t just raise prices to some arbitrarily high level because you pass the affordability boundary and then the demand falls off a cliff. So, I do feel like we've raised our prices or we raise the price quite a few times. They're frankly at embarrassing levels. But we've also had a lot of supply chain and production trucks and as we've got crazy inflation.

So, I'm hopeful, this is not a promise or anything, but I'm hopeful that at some point, we can reduce the prices a little bit.

Toni Sacconaghi -- Bernstein -- Analyst

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I have two as well. In response to the question around demand, I think, Zach, you said maybe a little, and Elon, you said maybe some indication that you might see some pressure on demand.

And I'm wondering if that is really just speculation or whether there's any empirical data that you saw in the last month, whether it be cancellations or order lead times that led you to make that comment. I think anecdotally, if you squint, the lead times have gotten a little lower over the last four months in both China and the U.S. That's really the only visibility investors have. So I'm wondering if you could maybe elaborate on whether that's really just you're sort of anticipating there could be some impact because of high prices or whether they're something anecdotally or quantitatively that you could point to, please?


Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

No. I mean, I think we've said this now for many years, I know has proven true. Tesla does not have a demand problem, we have a production problem. And we've almost always had it's a very rare exception it's always been a production problem.

I think that will remain the case.

Toni Sacconaghi -- Bernstein -- Analyst


So there's a denominator and a numerator and like, you increase production?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, absolutely. As we increase production, more demand is needed obviously.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering


No, it's more just like you can't look at the backlog and state much about demand because we're doing a lot on the other side to change the production.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

But we're trying to make the backlog lower, not longer.

Unknown speaker


Building factories and building --

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

We don't want a long backlog. That's annoying. It'd be like go to a restaurant and you order a burger and you have to wait three hours and like, that's annoying. You want to get your burger right away.

Same with the car. So we want that lead times to reduce.


Toni Sacconaghi -- Bernstein -- Analyst

OK. Now I was just trying to follow up on the fact that you both said that maybe we're seeing demand be impacted a little bit, and that was the spirit of the question.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

We don't have like -- like because we see daily orders from around the world for our cars, it's actually -- it is like a mood barometer of people's confidence in the economy. But one can't read too much into it because things can vary a great deal from one day to the next. Consumer sentiment is all over the map. So it's -- manage price, frankly.


But we have so much excess demand. That is really just not an issue for us. It might be an issue for some other companies but it is not an issue for us.
Link to transcript from Motley Fool.

Additionally, Tesla's limited menu options also indicate overwhelmingly strong demand. Still today you can't buy:
  • Model 3 long range
  • Model Y standard range
  • Model S/X with a single motor, less than 670 horsepower (Lamborghini Huracán is ~630 hp), less than 100 kWh of battery, and no fancy gaming computer
Tesla's entire lineup is sold in just five standard paint colors. The Model Y is likely to pass the Toyota Corolla next year to become the best-selling vehicle by unit volume, yet the Corolla has thirteen paint colors despite being an economy car mostly being bought by people wanting to save money on car expenses. A luxury comparison might be the Audi Q7 with nine paint options, or the Lexus RX with ten. If you want a car that's dark blue, light silver, dark grey, cream, brown, maroon, green, beige, orange, yellow, or any other popular color, you're either getting secondhand work done on your new Tesla or you're buying another brand.

If demand were actually a concern at all, would Tesla continue to keep such a small selection on offer? No, of course not.
 
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I'll have to disagree there. Elon's use of Twitter shows a complete lack of understanding of the biggest challenge Twitter faces: Content Moderation.

To pretend otherwise is silly, but feel free - just don't try to forbid others from pointing it out in the name of "thou shalt not mention Elon's flaws"
Um…how many Twitter followers do you have and how many do you add per day?

Additionally, if you could point me to your curriculum vitae so I might get a better understanding of why you unequivocally know better on this topic. That’d be super helpful.