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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I am wingin' it at 33% in my not so fancy model.
Just to clarify the "work-around" is simply to sell each car produced for the highest price and the best margin, and it is only a short term thing.
Eventually I think Tesla will need the Gen3 car in China,
Chinese exports may hit issues with tariffs, deliveries and service, maybe just enough to render the "work-around" viable for 2-3 years.
There are also a lot of ICE sales to displace.
Overall the main difference in our opinions is, I think Tesla can hold margins a bit higher for a bit longer.
JSML
Member
As I posted earlier, delivery is 4 to 6 weeks due to Shanghai exporting the first month of production. That is different than a big increase in units backlogged.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Did you see the planned expansion at Giga Nevada, specifically one more building segment being added entirely for Panasonic battery cell production? And with both Powerwall and Megapack production moving to Lanthrop, CA I suspect that Reno will be the base for Tesla Semi production for at least a few years, and they'll be 2170-based packs.
That means Giga Texas 4680s will go to Cybertruck, and completion of the new cathode plant will not be a limiting factor for Semi. Martin Viecha said 'for the first time, Tesla has all the battery cells we need'. I believe him.
More info on requirements and timing from Alexandra. She used to work for Moody’s.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
This was outstanding perspective for me. Helps to keep us bulls grounded. I think Tesla has an unassailable COGS lead due to their commitment to constantly and truly innovate their manufacturing. I thought GM and profitably was the ultimate metric...But I didn't consider state sponsored competition, certainly not so many of them! China has often been recognized for their long term thinking and end-goal market strategy, so I'm not sure how deep they're willing to allow their pockets to go while they bankroll competitors to artificially challenge Tesla way beyond what a non state sponsored competitor would possibly survive. The Chinese market will indeed be far more complex than I thought!
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
JSML
Member
I said the backlog has cratered. I am relying Troy Teslike posting.
No r
No remember the presentation replay the video they said 500 miles with highway speeds and fully charged
JSML
Member
To clarify, I wrote there are ‘demand concerns’. I never wrote ‘demand cratered’. I point out one of the most solid data fanning that concern. China order backlogs. Troy has been tracking this and the data is not pretty.
Neither I nor Troy would say demand cratered because we don’t know that. We can only look at data points.
You shouldn’t completely rely on @Troy. He has constructed a model in which he calculates the order backlog by looking at wait times for all models on all continents. In September wait times in China shrunk to 1 week because that’s the month in which around 80k cars for the domestic market were delivered.
In October almost all of Shanghai’s production is exported and few cars will be delivered to Chinese customers, which had caused wait times to go up to 4-6 weeks again. Did the order backlog suddenly increase on October 1st? No, it didn’t. But Troy’s calculation will show it did (because of the way it works). Just like it showed that backlog dropped in September. Both are not true, as the backlog is pretty steady and if it declines it declines gradually.
I know Troy probably means well, but his model is flawed.
JSML
Member
Thanks and very good point. We should never rely on one source.
Let’s see what Troy does with his numbers. He is well aware of the October exporting.
New info from Rob TeslaDaily podcast that Elon’s lawyer said Twitter offered a reduction of several billion with some conditions. Elon refused and offered the original price and conditions.
This is interesting because Twitter then decided to continue with the court case.
My guess is that Twitter conditions included removal of the debt finance clause which of course is a no-go for Elon.
As of now all the backers are still supporting the purchase based on what we know, but I hope once all the discovery are complete some backers withdraw which gives Elon an out so he can pay the $1B fee then make a new offer at significantly lower price (50% off?) that Twitter will accept.
This is interesting because Twitter then decided to continue with the court case.
My guess is that Twitter conditions included removal of the debt finance clause which of course is a no-go for Elon.
As of now all the backers are still supporting the purchase based on what we know, but I hope once all the discovery are complete some backers withdraw which gives Elon an out so he can pay the $1B fee then make a new offer at significantly lower price (50% off?) that Twitter will accept.
This comment is gold
Toyota's Model Y fighter bZ4x sells zero units in September
Toyota's Model Y fighter, the bZ4X, came late to the game, following all-electric crossovers like the Volkswagen ID.4 into the market.
www.teslarati.com
What I understand now is that Tesla has a demand problem if they don’t have 1 year backlog from the Media point of view. The way I see it is that they will finally have battery capacity for Tesla semi, Cybertruck and power wall & mega pack production. It would be interesting to know there is a Model 2 into the design room. Not to announce it officially to avoid Osbourning the sales of Model 3 and Model Y in Chinal but at least to know there will be a car available to the masses once the luxury car China sector is filled up
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Forward Observing
“You Need to know What’s happening in China”
The general takeaway from my reading of that author was; will the consumer be left holding the bag, and, and that is some serious competition.
Seriously, not all startups or legacy automakers will come out alive; thus the consumers will be left with their very own “Pet Rock.”
The only, IMhumbleO, competitor is VW and maybe Ford Riven. Yes, there are other startups that may continue to pull rabbits out of the dark corners of their minds, but jumping to light speed takes time, money and, well energy. VW acknowledged Tesla and the vision when they bought a Model S and tore it a-part bolt, by bolt and battery cell, by battery cell. The problem with Western thinking is that they deserve the tile or trophy.
Legacy automakers survived Toyota’s entry into the Western market back in the seventies (that was when I became aware of them). However, today they think like the typical older legacy automakers. Also remember I said, “survived.”
Which automakers are household manufacturers when talking to the grandkids about solar storage, solar cells/roof, and reinventing your house from gas primary to electrical, on, and on. GM ~ got tanks? I said, household damn it. Oh yeah, Starlink for their hand held devices.
Cheers
“You Need to know What’s happening in China”
The general takeaway from my reading of that author was; will the consumer be left holding the bag, and, and that is some serious competition.
Seriously, not all startups or legacy automakers will come out alive; thus the consumers will be left with their very own “Pet Rock.”
The only, IMhumbleO, competitor is VW and maybe Ford Riven. Yes, there are other startups that may continue to pull rabbits out of the dark corners of their minds, but jumping to light speed takes time, money and, well energy. VW acknowledged Tesla and the vision when they bought a Model S and tore it a-part bolt, by bolt and battery cell, by battery cell. The problem with Western thinking is that they deserve the tile or trophy.
Legacy automakers survived Toyota’s entry into the Western market back in the seventies (that was when I became aware of them). However, today they think like the typical older legacy automakers. Also remember I said, “survived.”
Which automakers are household manufacturers when talking to the grandkids about solar storage, solar cells/roof, and reinventing your house from gas primary to electrical, on, and on. GM ~ got tanks? I said, household damn it. Oh yeah, Starlink for their hand held devices.
Cheers
Paracelsus
Active Member
The MM’s psychological operation has certainly been in full effect with their ability to dump TSLA share price through the week below the 3-year trend line. Stay strong @wipster - Today we may see that the most frustrating part of this week’s possible
Certainly not an advice - just another reminder that they have successfully done this many, many times in the past .
if TSLA is trading below a 3yr trend line, it is not b/c of market manipulation, it is b/c of market agreement.
Again, how could Chinese carmakers threaten Tesla sales if Tesla has FSD and they don't? Are you aware of any Chinese competitors building a global self-driving AI based on billions of miles of driving data and low-cost cameras? Or does your modeling assume Tesla will not complete FSD in the next 4-5 years?
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