Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I'd be surprised if it does. It's going to have heavy frame rails for load carrying.

Front and rear castings, Exoskeleton, and structural battery would be most likely for the same reason they are used in the Y.

Only CT will be better, stronger, faster... No, wait, that's describing Steve Austin, not Giga Austin

Edit: noticed you added Twitter quotes about Semi, after replying to a CT comment. Looks like both will be structural batteries.
 
Last edited:
There's no appreciable difference in gravimetric energy density for current 4680s over 2170s. When the changes do come, they'll be mostly from new silicon-doped cathodes. And that too is portable to the 2170 format.

4680 trucks will come when the cells are cheaper on a $/Wh basis. Right now, Tesla has 3 or 4 different battery suppliers competing on prices. That'll drive the decisions for trucking / fleet logistics.
I believe 4860s with all the Battery Day tech do have an appreciable improvement in kWh/kg over 2170s, especially when evaluated at the pack level and considering the integration with the overall vehicle and the structural mass savings from the structural pack design. Are you just referring to the advantages of the 4680 size or all the rest of the Battery Day tech too?

The larger can size does make for a better ratio of steel can mass to active battery material mass, due to the square-cube law. Less packaging, more jelly roll.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square–cube_law
 
  • Helpful
  • Informative
Reactions: wipster and 2daMoon
I'd be surprised if it does. It's going to have heavy frame rails for load carrying.

*Edit: Actually Elon said it will use a structural pack according to this Tweet:


Structural pack doesn't require the vehicle to rely on it. The 4680 Y pack supports itself between the frame rail instead of needing attachment points to cross car beams.
 
Is it possible that Tesla gets into real estate? In particular, I'm thinking of buying failing gas station sites and replacing them with superchargers + restaurants?
Possible. I'm still eyeing up car dealerships as perfect staging locations for robotaxis as well but that's a bit farther out.
 
650kwh for 500 miles of EPA range at 82,000 pounds gross weight is not physically possible. Even at 0.25 Cd and unheard of levels of rolling friction. 900 kWh would be an incredible achievement. Tesla semi will be the most efficient big rig on the road by far but let’s not get carried away
I agree. I do not think this 650 kWh rumor is true, or it applies to the 300-mile truck. The 500-mile truck needs a battery closer to 1000 kWh. And I'd note that the 0.25 Cd would also be unheard-of, because Tesla stated 0.36 at the reveal. I doubt that it's physically possible to get a truck with a big box behind it to a 0.25 Cd. You probably know that but I wanted to point it out in case others thought Tesla can work some engineering magic to make that happen.

1665443172444.png


Recently I attempted to estimate the Tesla Semi energy consumption with two different methods and both yielded about 2 kWh per mile at 75 miles per hour speed, in line with Tesla's stated consumption of less than 2 kWh per mile.

 
Last edited:
RE: Semi... it was revealed 5yrs ago and the presentation at that time said it would cruise at under 2kW. Since then, Tesla's motors and power electronics have become more efficient. Plus... didn't they go from a 4-motor setup to a 3-motor setup? It's the same system as Torque Sleep in the P85D. A larger motor (or pair of motors) only runs when you need extra acceleration. For cruising, the smaller motor will suffice. This allows them to achieve the same range - assuming a reasonable amount of torque sleep will occur - with a smaller battery pack.

RE: Cybertruck... I have one reserved... but I definitely do not want one from the first year of production. With stainless steel monocoque, structural battery pack w/ new cells, massive castings front and rear, new door entry tech, solar+motorised tonneau cover, 4-wheel steering, and crazy suspension... there is certainly no shortage of new hardware tech to get straightened out!!!

Finally... this website is called Tesla Motors CLUB .Com. Not Tesla Motors On Trial On The Planet Vulcan .Com. No administrator should be surprised by sightings of fans posting fan comments.
 
So why is this comment coming up now as opposed to 6 months ago - well it is a number of newly released examples of Chinese EVs that have the features to satisfy the needs of the average buyer at a far cheaper price point that Tesla - that's a new thing. A significant part of the market will just want the EV equivalent of a corolla or accord - which almost by definition is a cheap product.

I completely agree ICE is the first, best loser in this competition. The question, rather selfishly for me, is where does Tesla shake out in the mix in China.

Tesla would have to choose to compete in the Corolla or Accord market for an EV-equivalent of a Corolla or Accord to be competition. Right now it seems like Tesla is content at the higher end of the market. I believe China has a history of foreign brands dominating the luxury market -- before EVs wasn't it BBA that owned that market (for BMW-Benz-Audi)? Anyway, it may be that Tesla chooses to compete at the lower end with Robotaxi, it may be that they develop a cheaper car, but they have to choose to compete there for it to be a competition. Event if they do go into lower-end markets globally, it's possible that they'll cede the low-end Chinese market to government-funded Chinese competitors -- I just don't think we can know yet whether and how they will ultimately go downmarket. (I'm sure they want it to be Robotaxi; I'm just not sure it will be.)
 
RE: Semi... it was revealed 5yrs ago and the presentation at that time said it would cruise at under 2kW. Since then, Tesla's motors and power electronics have become more efficient. Plus... didn't they go from a 4-motor setup to a 3-motor setup? It's the same system as Torque Sleep in the P85D. A larger motor (or pair of motors) only runs when you need extra acceleration. For cruising, the smaller motor will suffice. This allows them to achieve the same range - assuming a reasonable amount of torque sleep will occur - with a smaller battery pack.

RE: Cybertruck... I have one reserved... but I definitely do not want one from the first year of production. With stainless steel monocoque, structural battery pack w/ new cells, massive castings front and rear, new door entry tech, solar+motorised tonneau cover, 4-wheel steering, and crazy suspension... there is certainly no shortage of new hardware tech to get straightened out!!!

Finally... this website is called Tesla Motors CLUB .Com. Not Tesla Motors On Trial On The Planet Vulcan .Com. No administrator should be surprised by sightings of fans posting fan comments.
The power consumption of the Semi is mostly the load of the actual work being done to overcome frictional forces, so there's minimal opportunity for improvement beyond Tesla's stated specs in 2017. The range of uncertainty is only like 5-10%.

I've calculated an estimated 1.1 kWh per mile of air drag power consumption at 75 mph using Tesla's 0.36 stated drag coefficient and 0.8 kWh per mile from rolling resistance.

Tesla can only do so much to make a big box with a 10 square meter cross-sectional area actually aerodynamic. Most of the design win was already achieved in 2017's design simply by making the front of the truck smooth, sloped and bullet-shaped.

It's also extremely unlikely that Tesla has found a way to revolutionize rolling resistance, and meanwhile their 82k lb fully loaded weight is more than the 80k lb legal limit for Class 8 diesel trucks, which increases the rolling resistance by 82/80-1 = 2.5%, all else being equal. The energy loss from rolling is due to vibrations, the material properties of rubber, and the road surface. Tesla may have squeezed out some tiny gain in this area but there's not much room for improvement.

The only way Tesla could get a major improvement in these areas is with platooning, such that one truck lowers its wind load by drafting behind the truck in front of it.

In the longer run, the only possibility for terrestrial freight transport at these speeds to require significantly lower energy loads is to do the platooning in a tube that contains the airflow and has either rails or smooth, clean pavement. One of these from Boring Co could do the job:
1665444355253.png
 
Last edited:
Tesla would have to choose to compete in the Corolla or Accord market for an EV-equivalent of a Corolla or Accord to be competition. Right now it seems like Tesla is content at the higher end of the market. I believe China has a history of foreign brands dominating the luxury market -- before EVs wasn't it BBA that owned that market (for BMW-Benz-Audi)? Anyway, it may be that Tesla chooses to compete at the lower end with Robotaxi, it may be that they develop a cheaper car, but they have to choose to compete there for it to be a competition. Event if they do go into lower-end markets globally, it's possible that they'll cede the low-end Chinese market to government-funded Chinese competitors -- I just don't think we can know yet whether and how they will ultimately go downmarket. (I'm sure they want it to be Robotaxi; I'm just not sure it will be.)
Tesla has sold Model 3's in the $35,000 bracket, well below the industry's average vehicle transaction price, and has had to raise prices due to COGS inflation and the ridiculous demand which we all know has led to wait times of over a year. To say Tesla is "content to occupy the higher end" isn't really fully observant of what has come before the situation we're at today.
 
The power consumption of the Semi is mostly the load of the actual work being done to overcome frictional forces, so there's minimal opportunity for improvement beyond Tesla's stated specs in 2017. The range of uncertainty is only like 5-10%.

I've calculated an estimated 1.1 kWh per mile of air drag power consumption at 75 mph using Tesla's 0.36 stated drag coefficient and 0.8 kWh per mile from rolling resistance.

Tesla can only do so much to make a big box with a 10 square meter cross-sectional area actually aerodynamic. Most of the design win was already achieved in 2017's design simply by making the front of the truck smooth, sloped and bullet-shaped.

It's also extremely unlikely that Tesla has found a way to revolutionize rolling resistance, and meanwhile their 82k lb fully loaded weight is more than the 80k lb legal limit for Class 8 diesel trucks, which increases the rolling resistance by 82/80-1 = 2.5%, all else being equal. The energy loss from rolling is due to vibrations, the material properties of rubber, and the road surface. Tesla may have squeezed out some tiny gain in this area but there's not much room for improvement.

The only way Tesla could get a major improvement in these areas is with platooning, such that one truck lowers its wind load by drafting behind the truck in front of it.
Fair points... maybe worth mentioning that the Semi that was revealed had some sort of drag reduction panels on its sides, between the tractor cab and the trailer. These are now gone. Which won't help the aero.
 
This would be impressive.

Since it's 2170 based, I'm wondering if perhaps the bigger packs aren't going to deliver the full 500 miles range yet. Maybe that doesn't happen until we get 4680 based trucks on the road?

This feels like an interim solution until they get 4680 production online. This facility isn't set up to ramp up to large scale either. Feels almost like they want to get a few out the door to prove the concept in customer hands and when larger scale production and 4680 production is online, they will deliver the full product.

Would be super impressed if they managed to get that kind of range out of a 650 kWh pack though.
My recollection is that Semi production is stating with the 500 Mile long range variant.

I doubt that the semi will be able to use 4680s as a structural pack, When the cells are carried as cargo the cell cans can be thinner aluminium rather than thicker steel. So there is a weight trade-off there.

Short term there may be more advantage is using 4680s in vehicles that can have structural pack.

Using 2170s in the Semi frees up more 4680s for the Model Y and Cybertruck.

The Semi can move to 4680s at some time in the future, but perhaps it is good to have a use for 2170s.
 
I doubt that the semi will be able to use 4680s as a structural pack, When the cells are carried as cargo the cell cans can be thinner aluminium rather than thicker steel. So there is a weight trade-off there.

Short term there may be more advantage is using 4680s in vehicles that can have structural pack.
At 2020 Battery Day, Tesla said that the structural pack results in less total system mass and more range. They gave a 10% mass reduction estimate for passenger cars, but I don't know what it'd be for the Semi.

This was also confirmed by Munro & Associates when they tore apart the Y from Giga Texas and weighed the battery pack.
 
The power consumption of the Semi is mostly the load of the actual work being done to overcome frictional forces, so there's minimal opportunity for improvement beyond Tesla's stated specs in 2017. The range of uncertainty is only like 5-10%.

I've calculated an estimated 1.1 kWh per mile of air drag power consumption at 75 mph using Tesla's 0.36 stated drag coefficient and 0.8 kWh per mile from rolling resistance.

Tesla can only do so much to make a big box with a 10 square meter cross-sectional area actually aerodynamic. Most of the design win was already achieved in 2017's design simply by making the front of the truck smooth, sloped and bullet-shaped.

It's also extremely unlikely that Tesla has found a way to revolutionize rolling resistance, and meanwhile their 82k lb fully loaded weight is more than the 80k lb legal limit for Class 8 diesel trucks, which increases the rolling resistance by 82/80-1 = 2.5%, all else being equal. The energy loss from rolling is due to vibrations, the material properties of rubber, and the road surface. Tesla may have squeezed out some tiny gain in this area but there's not much room for improvement.

The only way Tesla could get a major improvement in these areas is with platooning, such that one truck lowers its wind load by drafting behind the truck in front of it.

In the longer run, the only possibility for terrestrial freight transport at these speeds to require significantly lower loads is to do the platooning in a tube that contains the airflow and has either rails or smooth, clean pavement. One of these from Boring Co could do the job:
View attachment 862272
Um. There’s this thing about moving big objects. Take a small ship, like a destroyer. Chug it through the ocean at 20 knots. Measure the fuel used per nautical mile and figure the cost. Divide by the weight of the ship and you get the cost per mile-ton. Destroyers are 6000 tons or so. Call this ratio, “A”.

Do the same for an aircraft carrier massing 66000 tons, moving at the same speed. Call this ratio, “B”. It turns out that A is a heck of a lot larger than B. Which is why cargo ships tend to be huge: it’s cheaper to ship things in big vessels than small ones, even if the big guys use more fuel.

It also turns out that the highest possible speed for a displacement hull is bigger for large vessels than small ones. Which is why a nuke aircraft carrier can win a race with a destroyer. A little counterintuitive, that.

This turns out to be true for any mode of transport going through a turbulent medium. Ships, airplanes, and road vehicles. Which is Why Semis, I guess. And the critical ratio is both the range at full load and the cost per mile-ton of cargo.

Kind of obvious, I guess. But I haven’t heard it mentioned.
 
I'd be happy just to see proof that someone besides Telsa is building EVs profitably. Every company either admits they make nothing or close to it, or hides their EV data with their ICE business.
Give Ford enough price increases on the Lightning and Mach-E and they might be able to squeeze out a profit in a few years... GM? Not so much unless Joe helps Mary out in some way.
 
Tesla would have to choose to compete in the Corolla or Accord market for an EV-equivalent of a Corolla or Accord to be competition. Right now it seems like Tesla is content at the higher end of the market. I believe China has a history of foreign brands dominating the luxury market -- before EVs wasn't it BBA that owned that market (for BMW-Benz-Audi)? Anyway, it may be that Tesla chooses to compete at the lower end with Robotaxi, it may be that they develop a cheaper car, but they have to choose to compete there for it to be a competition. Event if they do go into lower-end markets globally, it's possible that they'll cede the low-end Chinese market to government-funded Chinese competitors -- I just don't think we can know yet whether and how they will ultimately go downmarket. (I'm sure they want it to be Robotaxi; I'm just not sure it will be.)

Tesla doesn't compete in the low end today because it's either not economically feasible/desirable, or the product is not capable enough for their standards.

Anyone outside of Tesla making a cheap EV with decent range is likely sacrificing margins. Don't expect any volume production of significance, despite popularity. EVs with small batteries have poor range and poor torque. Basically the glorified golf cart. Sure there's a market for this, but Tesla's more than happy to let someone else tackle that segment.

With Tesla's manufacturing efficiencies, they likely could produce the best-spec'd low-end EV. But as long as they haven't tapped all the demand for the current 3/Y segments, there's no reason for them to rush to the bottom, where margins are crappy. Maximizing profit now allows them to continue to grow (more factories), which will then set them up to handle the volumes that a decent econobox EV would generate.