Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Two things have changed:

1. the IRA has decreased Tesla's materials costs, and
2. the IRA introduces a 1% tax on share buybacks after Dec 31, 2022

Therefore, Tesla must now decide if a one-time share buyback is helpful in Q4.

Futher, the SEC has proposed a new rule (not yet in effect) which would require companies to do daily reporting of any share buybacks, rather than include them in their quarterly filings as is required now.

I'm not sure how this affects TSLA goign forward, but I am sure shortzes will find a way to make it a problem.

If they want to have less shares in the wild in 2029, then buybacks now are lower cost than buybacks in the future; however, in terms of dilution/ earnings per share, the effect will be transitory.

Elon's 2018 CEO compensation plan (paid all in new stock) is ~9% of current outstanding shares or $68 Billion at the current share price.
A 1% per year buyback would be more than undone by the January 20th 2028 execution deadline, a little over 5 years from now.

 

[MrMoo]

I don’t get why Gary’s being so obtuse here.

First, there was a typhoon that interrupted production AND deliveries for about 2 days near the end of the quarter. That easily accounts for several thousand cars. Might even account for the entire “shortfall”.

Second, Giga Shanghai is serving many other additional markets now, many of which have opened recently—Australia, New Zealand, Japan, etc.

Third, we had what, another *20k* cars that left port just a few days before the quarter. That means Shanghai missed a delivery number of something like 20,000 MORE than actually delivered by a matter of perhaps a week.

Fourth, we haven’t yet seen any price drops in China.

Fifth, Tesla paid employees 3x overtime to keep production up at start of Q4.

Sixth, rumors of a price drop swirled around before the end of the quarter, which Tesla China directly and firmly denied.

And wait, now because Tesla has different deliveries than Gary and Troy predicted, there’s suddenly a problem? Troy and analysts are routinely off by several percent or more every quarter.

When analysts massively underestimate Tesla performance, we haven’t seen 15% moves to the upside lately, why the double standard?

Remember Q1 results, when Tesla massively beat expectations but DROPPED something like 10% afterward? What a bunch of horse hockey.

Those things combined point to missing BLOWOUT numbers by just a few days, and partly due to a force majeure event (typhoon). I see absolutely *nothing* pointing to any significant demand weakness in China. And even if there were, there is plenty of demand in nearby Asian countries to absorb any difference.

If Gary’s fund supposedly has a large stake in TSLA and he can’t see that, he’s either incredibly dense, or that tells me his fund has temporarily sold TSLA.

Above all this, Shanghai serves more than just China. It doesn’t matter AT ALL where they get sold, as long as they get sold. In fact, margins (even including shipping) might even be HIGHER selling elsewhere depending on foreign exhange rates and pricing in other countries.

G’damn, Wall Street is dense.

I think he is just taking a realistic approach to things. You can't be a Tom Lee and just be on copium every day thinking the market and stocks are being misunderstood and they'll just rocket up as soon as people wake up to the realisation they are wrong.

Also this hatred on Troy is really wierd too, a few years ago he got really popular because he did all this work on predictions and all of a sudden because his tune isn't ultra bullish be suddenly becomes this piece of *sugar* whos always wrong.

Any way back to Gary, his post makes perfect sense to me, the numbers were revised and Tesla beat the revised numbers. What is the problem here?

 

[scaesare]

Fair points... maybe worth mentioning that the Semi that was revealed had some sort of drag reduction panels on its sides, between the tractor cab and the trailer. These are now gone. Which won't help the aero.

It's hard to tell how accurate/recent the pics in the news stories are, but it also seems like all the recent images have shown the semi without several other efficiency items as well: super-single rear tires, rear tire side areo-skirts, and areo front wheel hubs/caps:

For reference, here's what it looks like with those items present:

 

[Todd Burch]

And this post tells me you do not follow Gary and perhaps should refrain from commenting.
He bought more TSLA this week.View attachment 862523

Damn right I don’t follow him, for all the reasons I stated. He, like most Wall St goons, are usually wrong.

 

[Christine69420]

That segment has plentiful options now. Fiat 500, Chery iCar, Honda e, Citroën Ami, Microlino, Renault Twizy etc and endless small truck options. They mostly aren’t in the US but they’re
Very popular in places that have dense central cities. Why would Tesla need or desire to enter that segment?

Small city cars can also benefit from Tesla quality and autopilot security.

I could see myself buying a small city car - but not if I can't get one with autopilot.

One could argue that if enough customers bought a Tesla mini and not ie a Model Y then it would benefit the environment and global warming.

But first Tesla should reduce current back orders by a significant amount. Of course.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think he is just taking a realistic approach to things. You can't be a Tom Lee and just be on copium every day thinking the market and stocks are being misunderstood and they'll just rocket up as soon as people wake up to the realisation they are wrong.

Also this hatred on Troy is really wierd too, a few years ago he got really popular because he did all this work on predictions and all of a sudden because his tune isn't ultra bullish be suddenly becomes this piece of *sugar* whos always wrong.

Any way back to Gary, his post makes perfect sense to me, the numbers were revised and Tesla beat the revised numbers. What is the problem here?

What hatred on Troy? All I said was that he’s been wrong by several percent in the past.

My hatred is for the Wall St crooks who get paid lots of money to be way more wrong than us on the forum here. That’s embarrassing for them.

Also, you obviously weren’t around here from 2012-2020. What you describe is EXACTLY what happened with TSLA.

 

[Unpilot]

Damn right I don’t follow him, for all the reasons I stated. He, like most Wall St goons, are usually wrong.

Yep they all "talk the book" The more egregious ones like GoJo sift through stats till they find something that supports their narrative. Then run with that.
Others are not quite as transparent ....yet still spin the story to support whatever side they are on at the moment.

 

[MrMoo]

What hatred on Troy? All I said was that he’s been wrong by several percent in the past.

My hatred is for the Wall St crooks who get paid lots of money to be way more wrong than us on the forum here. That’s embarrassing for them.

Also, you obviously weren’t around here from 2012-2020. What you describe is EXACTLY what happened with TSLA.

Sorry I'm not speaking about you specifically. I just see Troy being mentioned a lot these days about how his always wrong so his data is useless.

 

[elasalle]

If Twitter deal goes through and Elon has to sell more shares, can Tesla be doing share buyback at the same time? ( 2 separate entities)
Oct 28th is the next court date, and earnings will be out ~ 10 days prior.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tiny battery supply, spread out over how many dozens of promised EV models and now battery storage?

They really want to keep the SP up by duping investors. I wonder how long they can play musical shares?

View attachment 862536
"We're getting into the entire ecosystem of energy management," GM executive Travis Hester said in an interview.

"Our competition in this space on the (automaker) side is really only Tesla, which is a strong energy management company," added Hester, who heads EV Growth Operations. "There are a lot of analogies you can draw with Tesla." (please see us as a Tesla competitor plz)

EXACTLY right. They’re looking for share price appreciation by association.

 

[Buckminster]

If Twitter deal goes through and Elon has to sell more shares, can Tesla be doing share buyback at the same time? ( 2 separate entities)
Oct 28th is the next court date, and earnings will be out ~ 10 days prior.

 

[Todd Burch]

Sorry I'm not speaking about you specifically. I just see Troy being mentioned a lot these days about how his always wrong so his data is useless.

No it’s fine. I think Troy’s data is useful. Sometimes he’s very accurate, sometimes he’s not. And his heart is in the right place. But sometimes even he gets caught up overly focused on something and misses the bigger picture.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Imo Tesla should make a tiny car. Like the Smart car they showed for Daimler a long time ago, but this time done right. No center console and have the seats next to each other. Two seats only... Hatchback, tiny frunk. The new LFP from CATL. No options other than color and FSD(start with delivering FSD models until they run out of demand). A bit fugly is okay. Something like this one:

View attachment 862480

Imo you are 100% right. Nothing is sweeter to drive on a sunny day than a low to the ground convertible sports car!
0 - 60 in 3 sec. Range 300 +, and similar level of crash safety as M3 and MY, all for 100K.
Elon could send a cherry red one to Mars using one of his last Starship prototypes!

 

[mongo]

If Twitter deal goes through and Elon has to sell more shares, can Tesla be doing share buyback at the same time?

Techincally, yes. Are you thinking directly from Elon, or simultaneously to reduce impact on stock price?
Direct sale might be better than Elon selling knowing Tesla is buying (non-public material information).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Oct 28th is the next court date, and earnings will be out

No, the Oct 28th date is the deal deadline imposed by the trial judge. Her instruction was for the parties to contact her by email to set another trial date in November if they do on reach a deal by 5 pm on Oct 28.

Judge delays Twitter trial, gives Musk time to seal buyout

Judge delays Twitter trial, gives Musk time to seal buyout

A judge has delayed a looming trial between Twitter and Elon Musk. The move gives the Tesla CEO more time to close his $44 billion deal to buy the social media company after months spent fighting to get out of it.

apnews.com

 

[elasalle]

Techincally, yes. Are you thinking directly from Elon, or simultaneously to reduce impact on stock price?
Direct sale might be better than Elon selling knowing Tesla is buying (non-public material information).

Main point here is if Elon (Sell) and Tesla (Buy) can be happening at same time, so that another sell by Elon doesn't cause more selling pressure in this macro env.
Even better if they can do it directly. cheers!!

 

[oldTAVguy]

The competition is coming...

GM created a new energy business to sell batteries and solar panels in bid to dethrone Tesla

GM Energy is a direct shot at Tesla.

www.theverge.com

/s

 

[OrthoSurg]

Main point here is if Elon Sell and Tesla Buy can be happening at same time, so that another sell by Elon doesn't cause more selling pressure in this macro env.
Even better if they can do it directly. cheers!!

The only reason we are having that buy back discussion is because the SP has been plundging because of Elon dumping shares in the open market. Buyback won’t accelerate the world to sustainable energy, acquiring Twitter won’t do so too. It might accelerate the world for more open communication but as for now Twitter is a dumpster fire and I have deleted my account.

 

[elasalle]

The competition is coming...

GM created a new energy business to sell batteries and solar panels in bid to dethrone Tesla

GM Energy is a direct shot at Tesla.

www.theverge.com

/s

Just yesterday GM got downgraded because demand for cars is going down.... so what to do with over abundance of fire-proof batteries than to start energy business.

Meanwhile Lathrop is still invisible to MSM

 

[PKEllefsen]

At this point i am really wondering what the statistical probability is for tesla to not reach at least 300 by june 2024 (up 35% from today). If we use a PE of 40 to be bearish, we would only need 7,5 in trailing EPS in Q1 2024. That eps is so ridiculously low. Annualized PE for Q4 2022 already could potentially beat that target. 80-100% earnings growth in 2023 looks very realistic, which really should raise the stock price higher no matter what's happening with the general market. It's not realistic that a company growing that fast can reach a PE below 20-25. Even if tesla only reached half of my growth target, today's stock price would still be way too low.

To make a long story short - Tesla hasn't been this undervalued since march 2020 and/or 2019. Personally i'm already at 25-30% of my portfolio in leaps expiring in June 2024. Does anyone else see the temptation of increasing the weights of leaps in their portfolios right now, or is the most popular thing to do just to sit back and relax despite the current valuation? It feels like this is the sale of a lifetime and it's hard to be on standby...