Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

The Elon/Starlink/Ukraine saga is only slightly related to investing in TSLA, but keeps clogging up the main investor thread and also the Ukraine/Russia thread. So I’ve created Elon, Starlink and Ukraine and moved 20 posts. You may continue over there.

Interesting the ones you chose to move....VS nuke.

 

[petit_bateau]

Huh? It's my understanding Tesla doesn't produce cells in Germany.

Elon stated that global cell supply is no longer a concern. So what the problem?

There is a large building in Berlin that was about to start producing 4680 cells ......

 

[BornToFly]

Say Q3 2022 Earnings Call questions are live: Say

I was looking at some of them. Does anyone know if rental car companies like Hertz are eligible for the vehicle tax credit next year? If not, selling to them in Q4 fixes any Q4 demand problems from the IRA credits.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Interesting the ones you chose to move....VS nuke.

Earlier today I thought it could be handled by nuking a few posts (is that word appropriate in the current geopolitical situation?), but continuing that would erase too many opinions which deserve a place on TMC (just not in the main threads).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Share buybacks indicate that management doesn’t have anything better to do with the capital. I think Tesla has lots of ideas that are capital intensive.

Also, issuing debt (even investment grade) is really expensive now. If they did so and didn’t spend it on capex but bought back stock that would seem like a short-term decision.

Elon and Tesla have seen lean times before, I don’t think they want to go through that again

Concerned that expectations for the ER and management discussion will leave folks disappointed.

There are zero ideas for Tesla to initiate on for the next 4 quarters minimum.

It's like you think Tesla can just decide "Oh let's do this and put billions into it" at any given time

The reality is that Tesla's pillars for growth for the next couple of years are set and a vast majority of the costs associated with those pillars are growth are already accounted for. These growths for pillar have been planned for years. There are no new needed Gigafactories to ramp Model Y, Cybertruck, Semi, and Megapack production.

It will be a couple years minimum before there is any sort of intensive capital needed for Robotaxi or Optimus.

If you're against a buy back, that's fine. But to say that Tesla has lots of ideas to put capital into within the next 2 years minimum is just silly and misinformation. Even if we're talking about Tesla getting into Lithium mining and buying a couple mining companies, Tesla would be using stock to buy those companies. In which case, again.....it's very smart for Tesla to be buying back stock right now so that they wouldn't have to offer up as much stock a year from now to buy a mining company.

 

[Gigapress]

I was looking at some of them. Does anyone know if rental car companies like Hertz are eligible for the vehicle tax credit next year? If not, selling to them in Q4 fixes any Q4 demand problems from the IRA credits.

I believe rental car companies would be eligible under the commercial clean vehicles tax credit section of the IRA.

 

[Zero CO2]

in for another 45 shares at $213 this is feeling like 2018/2019 without anywhere near the risk... back then I had a queasy feeling buying TSLA
now i am completely calm , continuing to buy these dips.
in 2019 Shanghai was not complete , there was no Model Y production , Cybertruck had not been announced yet , no Austin or Berlin
FSD was a joke , MS/X deliveries were actually lower in Q319 than Q322... i can go on but you get the idea

 

[wipster]

If not, selling to them in Q4 fixes any Q4 demand problems from the IRA credits.

I think you mean delivering the vehicles to them so the revenue can be booked. The sale(s) were made several months ago.

BTW, I do agree with your premise.

 

[BornToFly]

in for another 45 shares at $213

Damit! You got me excited and made me check the SP, thinking we bounced....

(we are under 209 right now)

 

[Mengy]

in for another 45 shares at $213 this is feeling like 2018/2019 without anywhere near the risk... back then I had a queasy feeling buying TSLA
now i am completely calm , continuing to buy these dips.
in 2019 Shanghai was not complete , there was no Model Y production , Cybertruck had not been announced yet , no Austin or Berlin
FSD was a joke , MS/X deliveries were actually lower in Q319 than Q322... i can go on but you get the idea

It is amazing how strong the company and its fundamentals are today compared to where the stock price is today and how its dropped throughout the year. Feels like such a huge buying opportunity for the long term, I wish I could spare the money to buy more.

Margin is direly tempting me, but so far I've not dipped into margin. Yet.

 

[traxila]

It is amazing how strong the company and its fundamentals are today compared to where the stock price is today and how its dropped throughout the year. Feels like such a huge buying opportunity for the long term, I wish I could spare the money to buy more.

Margin is direly tempting me, but so far I've not dipped into margin. Yet.

Do it at 150 if it presents itself. Not all in. Save powder.

Don’t listen to me.

 

[traxila]

There is a large building in Berlin that was about to start producing 4680 cells ......

The source was two experts close to the company.

So these guys live in Bradenburg? Or did they happen to be parked outside GigaBerlin when the article was written?

 

[traxila]

(A new consideration I haven't seen in the many, many, many posts on whether Tesla should issue a share buyback).

In all the posts advocating FOR a share buyback, the assumption is that Tesla sitting on cash is a "pure waste" (@TSLA Pilot , @WarpedOne , and others). Surely Tesla doesn't have $18 B sitting under a mattress somewhere!?! Wouldn't they at least have it invested in fixed, short-term bonds or investment certificates at 3%, 4% even 5%, no?

If this is the case, then not only is the cash hoard a prudent mitigation against the risk from many possible albeit unlikely disasters documented by @unk45, @Gigapress, and others, it's also growing as a hedge against inflation. So not really a waste after all, just basically staying on par, not gaining, but not significantly losing either. Issuing a buyback becomes a matter of how greedy Tesla / the Master of Coin is (and just make your way over to the Options thread to hear how well that's going for our friends suffering through this unexpected ["unlikely"?] downturn.)

I'm sure any of the capable accountant-types on the forum will correct me if such investments would show up on the balance sheet separate from cash. And if so, then really I'm proposing a third option between sitting on cash or a share buyback:

• Option 3 - invest in laddered fixed income.

Thank you. Everyone quotes compounding annual 10% losses without even mentioning the two year is at 4.5 and that inflation is not at 10%.

I have exited the debate at this point. Sides are drawn and we will not meet in the middle. Wait and see what EM decides. I believe we are in good hands.

 

[kanweg]

For the weekend for those that like to geek out.

“Engineering explained“ discusses whether Tesla’s claims on the upcoming Tesla Semi are based in reality.

Spoiler

Optimistic but not impossible

 

[Webeevdrivers]

As tempting as $209 is, I think since the couches are tatered, I won't use lunch money unless under $200 is breeched...

Yep. And if that happens in my opinion it’s headed for mid 150’s. We are buying at 155 but not a lot.

Tesla is in a lot of peoples cross hairs right now. It’s not something I considered when initially investing which was a mistake on my part. Long term it’s still a promising investment. But I don’t think those ATH’s will be back around for years. Tesla is only a small part of our portfolio but at 60 years old I should have probably been better informed on the volatility of a company with a target on its back. Paint me a naive but still optimistic investor.

Go longs.

 

[traxila]

So market takes it cues from megabanks reporting today?

Please. Their mother lodes are fixed income, investment banking, commercial and residential real estate and consumer banking. If they were outperforming to the upside with the interest rates spiking the past six months only conclusion I would make is they are engaged in fraud.

Hang in there guys, the turn comes as soon as the recession is labelled officially. And if recession doesn’t come, are you in the wrong stock? I Think not.

Avoid leverage.

 

[Nocturnal]

Uncle Leo is still buying. What a maniac. Love it.

 

[Skryll]

I was looking at some of them. Does anyone know if rental car companies like Hertz are eligible for the vehicle tax credit next year? If not, selling to them in Q4 fixes any Q4 demand problems from the IRA credits.

Thats what I assumed is why we saw q3 fleet deliveries. Now are there enough fleet orders left over for q4? Also I presume pressuring existing order holders to either cancel their order and get back in line at a higher price or take delivery in q4 should be a net positive. Wait longer and get the cash back most of you already would have saved with your locked in old price does not sound very attractive.

 

[mongo]

I believe rental car companies would be eligible under the commercial clean vehicles tax credit section of the IRA.

They would, but the amount they qualify for is undefined. Need to find a comparable vehicle that costs $7,500 less*.

‘‘Sec. 45W. Qualified commercial clean vehicle credit.’’. (c) EFFECTIVE DATE.—The amendments made by this section shall apply to vehicles acquired after December 31, 2022.
(b) PER VEHICLE AMOUNT.—

• (1) IN GENERAL.—Subject to paragraph (4), the amount determined under this subsection with respect to any qualified commercial clean vehicle shall be equal to the lesser of—
  • (A) 15 percent of the basis of such vehicle (30 percent in the case of a vehicle not powered by a gasoline or diesel internal combustion engine),
  • or
  • (B) the incremental cost of such vehicle.
• (2) INCREMENTAL COST.—For purposes of paragraph (1)(B), the incremental cost of any qualified commercial clean vehicle is an amount equal to the excess of the purchase price for such vehicle over such price of a comparable vehicle.
• (3) COMPARABLE VEHICLE.—For purposes of this subsection, the term ‘comparable vehicle’ means, with respect to any qualified commercial clean vehicle, any vehicle which is powered solely by a gasoline or diesel internal combustion engine and which is comparable in size and use to such vehicle.
• (4) LIMITATION.—The amount determined under this subsection with respect to any qualified commercial clean vehicle shall not exceed—
  • (A) in the case of a vehicle which has a gross vehicle weight rating of less than 14,000 pounds, $7,500, and

Edit: *or add FSD with a guaranteed buyback value?

 

[trayloader]

So to make it short- is Elon selling?