There are some assumptions in there that may or may not be right. Management will provide some color on how they will eliminate, partial eliminate, or however see they fit. Troy is estimating based on complete elimination of the wave which I don't think is a thing.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
For real. You are correct, just let it go.@Knightshade You fixed the thing on the internet. You can go to bed now.
Not everyone's gonna get the subtlety of this, or remember the order of statements.....and it really doesn't matter anyway.
powertoold
Active Member
I love Elon during Autonomy Day. He was in maximum hubris mode. The whole thing demonstrates Elon's strength, but for some, it also demonstrates his weakness. I think few people actually believed what he said during Autonomy Day re: robotaxis, myself included. He glossed over so many aspects of the robotaxi design (steering wheel / fleets / user-experience / etc.).
What I interpreted was that Elon was very confident that the software would be "at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention" (his words) before the end of 2020. It turned out to be false and is now looking to be 3 years late (if it happens before 2023); 3 years is Elon's average lateness with these ambitious projects.
This week will be as usual, Monday green and Thursday bloodbath…
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Considering that most Wall St. Analcysts, (even the Bulls like AJ) are using a 25% compound annual growth rate in deliveries for their predictions. Then ramping down for both growth and ASPs later in the decade.
Tesla's wildest miss in reality is over double the AVEREGE* Wall St. estimate, and they never admit their errors, or correct them going forward. 'cuz there's big $$$ in being so wrong
Cheers to the Longs!
*Paging @generalenthu
Have any of you seen Thunderf00t YouTube channel on Elon Musk. He’s got a recent one about why we should never believe Elon. There’s also one called the Cult of Musk. From what I have seen so far he just takes things out of context or he just doesn’t understand. Really it’s just him making fun of the wild ideas Elon has. He’s actually kind of funny but it’s sad there is a lot of people that would get tricked by this guy. Oh and when I go to the comment section every comment agrees with him. It’s like he deleted all the pro Tesla and Elon comments. Kind of odd.
I watched 1 or 2 Thunderf00t videos, now I don't bother.
He isn't just wrong about Elon, he is wrong about lots of things, and has a very annoying carping negative tone,
Anyone who hasn't seen them, don't waste your time.
I tend to agree with SMR here, being so consistently very wrong in public will not age well.
I don't need to watch any more of his videos to know he is probably going to be wrong most of the time.
Funny thing he makes fun of the Semi a lot. Well that is going to prove him wrong soon.
He says Tesla stock will crash and be valued like a regular car company but he doesn’t go through any numbers.
I agree seems like a waste of time.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Thunderf00t is a total waste of time and I think when discussing Musk-related topics he's most likely deliberately misrepresenting anything he says with Gish gallops of nonsense with enough snark and humor mixed in to distract viewers from how illogical his arguments are.
For example, in one video several years ago he claimed that the SpaceX Falcon 9 is a scam and SpaceX is not saving any money via hardware reusability. I haven't checked recently but even a couple years ago he still hadn't retracted that claim.
Unfortunately he has a fairly large audience because he excels at making people who aren't very smart or educated feel superior to other people, and because some of his "busted" debunking videos are going after easy targets like young-earth creationists and solar roadways, which builds his credibility with his audience that carries over to other topics. Best course of action is not to give him views and feed the Youtube algorithm.
For example, in one video several years ago he claimed that the SpaceX Falcon 9 is a scam and SpaceX is not saving any money via hardware reusability. I haven't checked recently but even a couple years ago he still hadn't retracted that claim.
Unfortunately he has a fairly large audience because he excels at making people who aren't very smart or educated feel superior to other people, and because some of his "busted" debunking videos are going after easy targets like young-earth creationists and solar roadways, which builds his credibility with his audience that carries over to other topics. Best course of action is not to give him views and feed the Youtube algorithm.
I mean, I literally provided exact quotes, sourced and dated.
But sure if you are still somehow unclear WHAT growth, here's a longer version from the call Jan 26 2022:
So he's explicitly talking about comfortably >50% growth in production in 2022.
The 50% comment from Zach, specifically "our 50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year" is preceded by:
He does have some financial stuff in there too- specifically about the gross margin hit ramping new plants might cause (but then nobody, including Tesla, ever said GM would increase 50% YoY so clearly he's not talking about THAT). So I suppose you could argue about if he means 50% or greater for production (which Elon explicitly said previous call with that >50% goal- and Zach mentions 4 times in his own quote) or deliveries (which he mentions once and Elon never did. But certainly not anything else, and it's be a stretch to think that was not about production in context.
And the 20 Jul 2022 call? Zach again
So "builds" is production. Same as Zach talked about previous call, and Elon did on the one before that.
How anybody still manages to get to "Well, how do we KNOW they meant 50% growth in production?" is just mind boggling.
Sometimes Tesla doesn't do what they say they will. They've got fantastic actually-happened reasons why they missed here....
(unlike say Elons promise to cover every major area of North American within 3-6 months with service centers back in 2018)
...but it's gonna be a miss if they don't get to 50%.
That's life. Stuff happens.
The # whatever it ends up being will still be ridiculously good compared to every other car maker, and doubly so given the supply chain, china lockdown, and other headwinds.
Except, no, it really can't in this case.
2 of 3 times they literally told you what it meant- production and the third they mentioned both production and deliveries but production 4 times vs 1 for deliveries.
It's not just a river in Egypt my dude
Yes it is- and you are
Then why devote that much mental gymnastics to trying to deny what they literally told us was the guidance for 2022?
They're making fantastic profit, they're growing at fantastic rates, and winning all over the place. The fact they guided to 50% (or better for 2/3 calls) but might only get into the mid-high 40s doesn't change any of that.
Except, of course, he literally said that (well, road, not street)
River. Egypt.
THIS kinda stuff is why folks make those echo chamber comments about other folks in this thread.
Than I ask again- why deny a thing he actually said if it's not super relevant?
No, they're not.
I'm one of those 160k, and have been for over a year. It's NOT a robotaxi.
It's an absolutely amazing L2 system that does very well with human supervision.
If you'd like to get more into the weeds on why the system currently being tested is not "robotaxi" there's plenty of deep dives available here:
AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD
Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.teslamotorsclub.com
I was not arguing against you, if you actually read my post I was arguing against bears and media.
I will not waste forum space by defending myself. But anyway, the quotes about 1million robotaxi taken from youtube transcript:
end of this quarter we'll have 500,000 cars with the full eight camera set up twelve ultrasonics someone will still be 1:48:54 on Hardware two but we still have the data gathering ability and then by a
1:48:59 year from now we'll have over a million cars with full self-driving computer
...
Looking at this slide he said:
by the middle of next year we'll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving Hardware feature 3:13:42 complete at a reliably level that we would consider that no one needs to pay
3:13:48 attention meaning you could go to sleep in your from our standpoint if you fast for[ward] a year should look maybe a year 3:13:55 maybe a year in three months but next year for sure we will have over
3:14:03 a million Robo taxis on the road
So yeah, he did say that. But he also said 1million cars with full self driving hardware. And slide said 1million cars with FSD Hardware. Did he really mean 1million cars actively being in robotaxi mode? Was that even feasible, ie would they have 1million HW3 cars in America and would regulator have approved them by then? I myself would not be so quick to infer that he meant to say that he meant:
Tesla will have 1M cars actively driving as robotaxis next year.
Note if you read the slide quickly your brain might pick up "By mid 2020[next year] over a million ... Robotaxi ~$200,000".
My own interpretation is that he meant that they would have hardware and software capable of robotaxi. Sure he still failed at this by a few years at least. But imo this quote has been way overused as a proof that Elon is a liar and a fraud without even first analyzing if the statement even made sense given its context...
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Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Advertising here once more since some people missed it:
The 2022 Seattle TSLA Investor Summit will be occurring on November 1st with @Discoducky and me hosting and we have seven other people coming. You do not need to be from the area; we already have representation from all over Washington as well as Oregon, British Columbia, Arizona and Florida. If interested, message me for details and provide your phone number so you can join the group message. (TMC apparently limits group messages to 5 participants). This event possibly may involve tequila from bottles shaped like lightning bolts, spreadsheets, Pacific Northwest 420, and flamethrowers, but I can't make any promises.
The 2022 Seattle TSLA Investor Summit will be occurring on November 1st with @Discoducky and me hosting and we have seven other people coming. You do not need to be from the area; we already have representation from all over Washington as well as Oregon, British Columbia, Arizona and Florida. If interested, message me for details and provide your phone number so you can join the group message. (TMC apparently limits group messages to 5 participants). This event possibly may involve tequila from bottles shaped like lightning bolts, spreadsheets, Pacific Northwest 420, and flamethrowers, but I can't make any promises.
FEERSUMENDJIN
Member
Nah. Single piece featherweight composite shell
Elon Musk Show is a breathe of fresh air. I was completely shocked. They did not interview all of TSLAQ
I believe that is only part one. Didn’t you see the Linnete preview clip at 3:00? I think she will be adding her “brilliant” viewpoint coming up.Nah. Single piece featherweight composite shell
Elon Musk Show is a breathe of fresh air. I was completely shocked. They did not interview all of TSLAQ
The wiki defition for Deus ex Machina is:
Latin: dei ex machina; English: "god out of the machine")[2][3] is a plot device whereby a seemingly unsolvable problem in a story is suddenly and abruptly resolved by an unexpected and unlikely occurrence.[4][5] Its function is generally to resolve an otherwise irresolvable plot situation, to surprise the audience, to bring the tale to a happy ending, or act as a comedic device.
I took this as a hint from Elon that there had been some kind of a breakthrough in the negotiations over Twitter that would lead to X corp (note he changed the ex to X). What kind of unexpected and unlikely occurrence to resolve the otherwise irresolvable Twitter situation we will have to wait and see. Let hope its a happy ending, but I'll be greatly relieved when this whole Twitter overhang is behind us.
Xepa777
Banned
1) considering teslas dire position at the time Elon really needed to pump the stock. A lot of us back then recognized the event for what it was.
2) You remember how much people here were were lapping that up, going into the holy LiDAR war, actively including robotaxi revenues in their 3 year projections? You would’ve gotten disagreed to hell (in tmc old reaction system) if you said otherwise.
And it’s exactly the same today
except we didn’t have the influencer community back then with egg on their faces. One of these days it will be right and it will be around the corner. But man….
Xepa777
Banned
You’re really trying to grasp for straws here to defend a point. Autonomy day for anyone who saw it live was clearly a need to boost tesla recruiting and confidence in the company’s approach for autonomy amid a very heated self driving race at peak mania (when autonomy engineers were clearing 7 digit figure comps easily and tesla was seen as a joke). The claims then were wild.
Okay here’s a more recent example. Elon talked about 2022 self driving that’s available to anyone. I recall in a conference or something that people would even be able to sleep in it by this year. But now the goalpost has moved to “FSD beta for everyone who wants it” which honestly is a very weak goalpost and one tesla can decide to do at any point on a whim.
Seriously to like literally everyone else I’m a religious musk zealous but people here making me sound like TSLAQ with their autonomy takes
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