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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You're right, an empty shell, especially as it states "Parent is wholly owned by Mr. Musk."


Right- which is why it's a merger, not just Musk purchasing shares.

There's a significant financial (and legal) difference. Many of them in fact.

If you want to know more may I suggest asking here:
 
My day started well like the pre market price, first day off in a while to go for a 60 miles bike ride at Mont Tremblant with a friend.

Then a flat tire with a 1 inch hole in the rear passenger tire and my day rapidly turned sour. The Nasdaq dropped, the roadside assistance bugged on the app, 20 minutes waiting time on the phone to speak to someone, 1h before the towing arrived, 1h30 to get the tire fixed, finally drove back home and did a local 40 miles ride.

At least we finished green. The only consolation price.

Hope tomorrow will be better
 

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Yes - I gave my chart to someone on Twitter who posted it.
btw - I am now on Twitter trying to fight the good fight. My account is CPAinNYC

We’re all hoping you won’t consider Twitter to be a prettier girl than TMC and leave her. Other good posters were lured away by Twitter’s siren call and that has made this place a poorer place.

Forgive all those posters who are not able to stay on topic and drown out high quality posts like yours (and those of Gigapress and others). They mean well, but can’t help themselves. And forgive the handicapped moderating team for not being able to keep up.

In other words: please stay.
 
Forward Observing

I lead off with “Forward Observing” base on my life. I see things from experience, read and touch. My military experience is life long. For example, at or about five I lost a game of toss rocks by being hit in the head, went to the hospital for stitches. At or about the same time I got my thumb caught while trying to fire my air gun, no refilling; the pump handle kicked back and I required a couple of stitches.

i prefer my call sign, again military experience; MajorBS49. Now you know my retired rank, my initials, and my year of birth. My wife, partner, lover, “I am her pain in the butt;” I refuse to take anything at face value. At eighteen I was invited to tell our church education committee what I would like to learn in a college age social group from the perspective of a recent high school student. I said, “I wanted to discuss the war in Vietnam, sex and if Jesus actually died on the cross.” In that order. The matriarch, all but flew across the table wanting to stab me with her knitting sticks. Today, I believe that had I been a black teenager in that very white environment; my fingers would not be pecking at the keyboard today.

Simply put, my initials are not one hundred percent correct or accurate. My parents did not name me totally after my father, even though I was the fifth first son. His first name was Robert, mine is Robert followed by Bruce, taken from Robert the Bruce. My father went by Bob; therefore, I wound up going by Bruce. Truth be told, I am not a king either. However, once upon a time it appears that one of my grandfathers was a bastard son not able to inherit from the lord of the area where Stone Henge is located. Therefore, when someone calls me a bastard for something I say, or the way I say it ~ I am not offended. However, when I get called a god damn bass fisherman (bastard) for something I write because the accuser is a supremest of one association or another, I am wounded suffering a sucking chest wound.

Truth is associated with “Free Speach” rightly or wrongly. So, one of my personal quotes is, “one person’s freedom, is another one’s prison.”

I tend to analyze anything and everything. Example: bird colonel , semi-friend neighbor, (retired) demonstrated his ignorance about the peoples in the country awarded a war titled gulf 2.0 ~ ref people using a hole in the ground. After analyzing that sad comment, and long internal combustion in my head; from my cobwebs I remembered during my food chain growth from private to sergeant that port-a-potties did not exist. Therefore, the first sergeant appointed a detail to go dig a hole, put a tarp around if for limited privacy if any at all. If the only leaves available are poison oak; you can bet your umbrella, I would have used my hand, I would have made sure it was my right hand for the next time I saluted or shook your hand.

If you want an unbiased view of Russia, may I suggest you watch Doctor Zhivago ~ movie from back in the sixties. i re-watched the movie to refresh my mind from fifty plus years ago. My wife and I aided a friends mother-in-law escape Ukrain, wheelchair and all. No, I do not need another merit badge, but my perspective is entirely different from the news media, and others. My stance in the military was to defend you from them, not join them. Therefore, my truth is different no matter how it is said, than anyone else. What are your views? ~ assess your views, your morals and ethics ~ that will define your position; or parrot someone else.

I found over time, if I believed I was always right ~ eventually I would turn 360 degrees in search of the truth; or is it 6,400 mills (artillery compass). The difference is almost like splitting hairs between the two compasses:)

okay, I need to turn you back over the the regularly schedule broad cast, “How is TSLA” doing today ~ hold your finger up after wetting it to test the iWind. Refreshing iWind ~ run TSLA, run.

Sorry if this is out of order, sequence ~ I am out of sequence, recovering from jet lag and hostage to the sea since the port winds kept us from our adventure today.

cheers
 
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It would seem that most people here subscribe to the idea that true value generation comes from holding TSLA long. Therefore it's surprising to me how much of the content in this thread tracks the intraday minutiae of the stock. I could use just the posts here to draw a detailed 1D chart for TSLA, even the off-hours stuff.
We are analysts, we analyze everything;)
 
Well, that will be one hell of a roll out on 12/1 if they've been manufacturing and hiding several thousand semis since then...

The funny thing is that Tesmanian may not be far off despite writing based off of an old photo not showing Tesla Semis. Elon liked the tweet (probably without reading the details):

Screenshot_20221019-061633-035.png
 
I don't care where or how Telsa puts R&D, but last time I checked we only care about the bottom line, and at half the revenue, Tesla is making almost 2x the net profit. Also I don't care if Tesla is a car company or a dildo company. Revenue, net income and growth determines the price of the stock and the PE multiple it gets.
Please do not give Elon any ideas.
 
We’re all hoping you won’t consider Twitter to be a prettier girl than TMC and leave her. Other good posters were lured away by Twitter’s siren call and that has made this place a poorer place.
As far as I could gather from the outside, it was implied in the past that they were repelled by the behavior of one of the moderators, rather than "lured away":

It really is a shame this has gotten out of hand and I would hate to see someone like @KarenRei who writes a lot of highly informative posts, leave this forum. Or @Fact Checking. And it shouldn’t have to happen.

I wasn’t directly involved, but I know what happened. It is not up to me to disperse details, explanations and motivations. But what I can say in general is that moderating this forum, and especially this thread can be a hugely frustrating task. It is difficult to find a balance between keeping it informative and entertaining on the one hand and readable and manageable on the other hand.

I'd like to ask clarification regarding moderation policy, especially since @KarenRei has now apparently left TMC over this incident:

Nafnlaus on Twitter

"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."

"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."

"It's a real shame. :( But it's the way it is."

Mods: As a longtime member (mostly lurker) I'd just like to chime in to say @Fact Checking and @KarenRei are two of the most valuable members on TMC and the quality of discussion dramatically improved when they showed up a few years ago. I beg you to make peace with them.

I appreciate the work of the moderators here and this is still currently the best place for detailed Tesla investor discussion but it will not be if those with the most insight are driven away. Exquisite thread organisation has no value if you lose the content.

Utterly ridiculous moderating to drive Karen Rei and Fact Checking off this forum. I am absolutely outraged. The amount of time and effort those two have put in here with their hugely informative posts is remarkable. Their posts here have for me personally and I am sure many others reading made me make much wiser investment decisions.

Whoever the mod in question is should give up their position as moderator over this debacle.

To lose steadfast TSLA informative supporters and investors as KarenRei and "Fact Checking" loses credibility for this forum. There's been just an absolute ton of hedging going on for many years after the 2013-2014 run-up and it was brutal. What kept me in TSLA was this forum and I'm glad to be a part of it with tremendously informative and helpful people such as these two.

The Mods do a great job of managing the quality of the threads

I am saddened to hear about @KarenRei and @Fact Checking.

Just so people know, the mods have been hassling and threatening me for a while

However, for @KarenRei to have quit TMC, a community she's likely spent hundreds, if not thousands, of hours contributing to, somebody must've been extremely rude to her.

Just like members should not be rude towards one another on the forum, moderators should not be rude and disrespectful to members either, no matter the offense.

Whichever mod was responsible should just own it and attempt to rectify the situation, or yes, this forum will crash and burn which it appears to be doing right now anyway. Chasing away KarenRei, Fact Checking and Neroden as an improvement here?
 
If this is accurate then we should see a substantial uptick in deliveries to Norway for Q4:


"Norway imposing VAT and a weight tax on EV's from Jan 1st 2023. TMY AWD will go up $6k overnight."

Edit: I see there were articles on this from Oct 7th but haven't seen it mentioned here.
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/norway-became-an-ev-paradise-now-it-s-imposing-a-weight-tax-and-bringing-back-the-vat-200685.html#:~:text=EV owners will also have,powered cars (including hybrids).
 
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If this is accurate then we should see a substantial uptick in deliveries to Norway for Q4:


"Norway imposing VAT and a weight tax on EV's from Jan 1st 2023. TMY AWD will go up $6k overnight."

Edit I see there were articles on this from Oct 7th but haven't seen it mentioned here.
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/norway-became-an-ev-paradise-now-it-s-imposing-a-weight-tax-and-bringing-back-the-vat-200685.html#:~:text=EV owners will also have,powered cars (including hybrids).

This is accurate. Which is why I am thinking of accepting delivery of my Plaid this year even if my recent house purchase has emptied all my couches. My Plaid would cost $20,000 more next year. There is VAT on the part of the price which is above $50,000. And $1.25 on every kg above 500. Which is basically all cars. The Plaid is 2,162 kg.
 
And the moral of this story is... carry a spare! Looking forward to earnings later today :)
Had 2 road bikes in the car and all the stuff inside. I would love a spare to fit inside the frunk. That’s be a game changer.

Exciting day. Earnings.
Breakout from the downtrend on the charts. We are set up for a +8% move if earnings beat!
 
Had 2 road bikes in the car and all the stuff inside. I would love a spare to fit inside the frunk. That’s be a game changer.

Exciting day. Earnings.
Breakout from the downtrend on the charts. We are set up for a +8% move if earnings beat!
Yeah, I deleted the post as I realised it might have come across as leery and wasn't meaning to be! A spare used to fit in the large frunk of the rear wheel drive S, but now I'm stuck with one taking up space in the trunk.

I'm expecting a good beat & crossing fingers for a move up but really won't be surprised if nothing happens or we even drop, this is TSLA after all!
 
We’re all hoping you won’t consider Twitter to be a prettier girl than TMC and leave her. Other good posters were lured away by Twitter’s siren call and that has made this place a poorer place.

Forgive all those posters who are not able to stay on topic and drown out high quality posts like yours (and those of Gigapress and others). They mean well, but can’t help themselves. And forgive the handicapped moderating team for not being able to keep up.

In other words: please stay.
Are you kidding? I cut my teeth with Tesla on TMC. Not going anywhere.
I usually post estimates, charts, graphs here first before posting on Twitter.
 
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Yeah, I deleted the post as I realised it might have come across as leery and wasn't meaning to be! A spare used to fit in the large frunk of the rear wheel drive S, but now I'm stuck with one taking up space in the trunk.

I'm expecting a good beat & crossing fingers for a move up but really won't be surprised if nothing happens or we even drop, this is TSLA after all!
Haven’t carried a spare in almost ten years and 165K miles of Tesla driving. Haven’t needed one either. Keep some airbin yoir tires and don’t buy cheap tires.
 
In many cases TSLA analysts *do* receive specific, unambiguous guidance and still don’t listen, instead inventing their own version of expectations.

Tesla says gross auto margin is going to increase materially and explains why. Analysts subsequently project constant or declining gross margin in 2023.

Tesla says price increases are still in the backlog and ASP will continue rising materially. Analysts project ASP staying the same.

Tesla says demand is out of control. Analysts predict steady or barely growing demand as competition comes.

Tesla says we’ll probably be at 40k per week total car production by the end of 2022 with 5k per week from Berlin and Texas and they’ll probably hit 10k per week sometime next year and should ramp faster than Shanghai did. Analysts project 2M cars delivered in 2023 and like 100k volume from each of Berlin and Texas.

Tesla says a $25k car isn’t even being worked on anymore. Analysts model for it hitting production in a few years anyway.

Simply because they are lied to by most companies they follow, think they have to confirm every bit of information, and are overly skeptical by nature?
 
Just FYI for those who don't regularly watch the YouTube videos from the crew that files around the Austin Tesla factory. The Tesla train yard in Hutto is being expanded from the current two train loading docks to now have 6 docks. There is also work taking place in the field immediately next to the train loading area. Gonna be a lot of new Tesla's taking train trips in the very near future :)