Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ammulder]

Good call, but on the topic of our overly optimistic earnings estimates here and the missed analyst revenue estimate…

I’m starting to think we should just forget about the past price increases affecting the average sales price. I feel like we’ve had two or three quarters of predictions that ASP will rise due to past price increases, and it hasn’t. So I think there’s a mix shift that’s adjusting ASP (and thus automotive revenue) down faster than price increases are bringing it up. I’m guessing that’s due to a good supply of LFP batteries and tighter supplies of nickel batteries leading to selling more lower-trim models... or at least, due to LFP supply ramping faster. I think the longer lead time for LR models vs LFP models in China supports that. I’m guessing we’re not going to see ASP go up.

 

[The Accountant]

In Less Than 2 Years
From 2004 to 2020, Tesla had accumulated losses of $5.4B.
Over the next 7 quarters, Tesla generated profits of $14.6B . . .
. . taking accumulated losses since inception from ($5.4B) to accumulated earnings of $9.2B as of Q3 2022.

 

[Beltsbear]

I wish Tesla would cancel the Roadster. It's an unproductive use of resources, and it reinforces the image of Teslas as vehicles for the elite. (I was glad to learn yesterday that Tesla is again working on a smaller, cheaper vehicle.)

I have similar concern about the Celestiq, but it's not quite as bad in this respect because GM also talks about moderately priced Chevrolet EV's, and Cadillacs aren't supposed to be meant for the proles.

There is a logic to super cars. One of the things they do is develop new technologies that eventually lead down to cheaper models. So they serve the front of advertising and research and development. The fact that Tesla does not advertise at all means the roadster is probably more important to Tesla than something like the new Cadillac is to GM. The new roadster will generate a huge amount of buzz when it is on the road. And on top of all that, the numbers it is made and will actually lead to positive profits.

 

[lascavarian]

If I’m not mistaken, there was reference to some unannounced products in development. Could there be an HVAC product in development? Love to see a powerwall/HVAC combo come to market.

 

[The Accountant]

Establishing local prod in 2 of Tesla's largest markets (China & Eur), flattens delivery wave.
This decreases the amount of cash stuck in accounts receivable as deliveries are done earlier in the Qtr.
As of Q3 2022, only 9 days of sales remained unpaid while in Q1 2020 it was 20.

 

[Beltsbear]

The next step down Tesla should be the Model 2/Z.

The letter Q has had so much stupid attached to it in the last few years it’s kinda ruined the whole letter for me…

Model 2 is fine. I think Z now has some stigma attached to it as well.

 

[Nocturnal]

Good call, but on the topic of our overly optimistic earnings estimates here and the missed analyst revenue estimate…

I’m starting to think we should just forget about the past price increases affecting the average sales price. I feel like we’ve had two or three quarters of predictions that ASP will rise due to past price increases, and it hasn’t. So I think there’s a mix shift that’s adjusting ASP (and thus automotive revenue) down faster than price increases are bringing it up. I’m guessing that’s due to a good supply of LFP batteries and tighter supplies of nickel batteries leading to selling more lower-trim models... or at least, due to LFP supply ramping faster. I think the longer lead time for LR models vs LFP models in China supports that. I’m guessing we’re not going to see ASP go up.

I also wonder if the occasional prioritization of performance models has an impact. If say Q2 is loaded with P cars, then that means Q3 would be biased towards standard trims. If that happens the price increases will be offset by that change in mix.

Model 2 is fine. I think Z now has some stigma attached to it as well.

Yes. Let's avoid that letter. There are already Z memes with Elon and Tesla.

 

[Paracelsus]

The effects of Tesla bringing long-awaited clean transport manufacturing to Germany and showing the public it really was possible all along looks like it might result in a literal 'hot mess' for VW/Porsche today as 'pressures build' on the protesters at the Porsche Pavilion demanding VW/Porsche decarbonize their transport. Where are the Giga Berlin environmental protesters for this inevitable toxic waste release?

 

[nvx1977]

Don’t waste your time. 7 years of telling my friends what a crazy company tesla is and even after they know how well I’ve done investing in it they still just get off on sending me *sugar* like recall notices for the backup camera.

It’s not even FUD anymore. Being pro or anti tesla is like it’s own political thing now. And many people just hate on musk for his Twitter persona, even though they don’t actually see it themselves and just read about it on Reddit.

I actually don't think it's a waste of time. The fundamental difference between politics and Tesla is that Tesla is on an adoption curve, whereas in politics, pretty much everyone already adopted (has a stance). There are TONS of people out there who barely know who Elon Musk is. That gives you perspective on how wired we are into the goings-on of Musk vs the average person out there that has a life (haha).

Last year my service center had me wait there while they did a front windshield replacement. Naturally I eavesdropped while the sales team addressed people's questions as they walked in. People (the type who wouldn't know who runs Tesla) were asking the most basic of questions like:

- so these cars don't need any gas at all?
- do the batteries last longer than my phone?
- what to do if you get stranded trying to look for a charging station?

I ended up chiming in quite a bit to give them my owner's experience. Pretty sure I sold some cars that day. The foot traffic was amazing while i was there.

There's still a giant pool of people available to become loyal Tesla customers; they just haven't paid any attention to the early adoption process. They wouldn't be able to define what TSLAQ is. They don't know who Linette Lopez or Dan O' Dowd are, and they wouldn't get any references like pedo guy, funding secured, or Wario's partnership with Andrew Cuomo in the Italian-American anti-Defamation League (or at least how that relates to Tesla).

 

[Singuy]

My thoughts on the biggest takeaway from the earnings call:

Elon suddenly sees path to 4T “for the first time”, this is unusual, we saw path to 10T long ago, why he only sees it now?
Something big is brewing.

Could be FSD really close, or Energy scaling to insanely big, we know it’s not Optimus or even Dojo, so it’s likely something they already have. Something he used to give none-zero probability had suddenly become probable outcome.

So, in 2015 Elon said Tesla would be 700B in 10 years, nobody believes, in 2018 he bets the board to award him if he actually makes it happen, and he did it in 2 years.

Now, he’s predicting 4T but no timeline, new compensation plan coming? That I would very much welcome! Make it 10T please!

Yeah, unlimited demand for batteries related product thanks to Russia blackmailing EU and IRA in the US. Tesla's products and vision is now a national security issue. This is new for the first time ever.

 

[InTheShadows]

I was thinking about the unwinding the wave comments, there are not enough transportation vehicles to handle the wave. So when Tesla gets to steady state, at some point the same issue of not enough vehicles (ships, trains, trucks, etc) will be reached in steady state.

My question is, how far off is that point? At 50% growth rate that same issue will happen in steady state in what? Two or 3 years.

From the comments on last nights call, I think 50% will be on the bear case side, with the new factory ramps and the new model that will outsell all other models combined in 2-4 years.

 

[Unpilot]

Took a drive today and look what I saw in my rearview mirror.

 

[Paracelsus]

Gary still pumping for a deeper WS discount on TSLA stock this morning:

 

[nvx1977]

The next step down Tesla should be the Model 2/Z.

The letter Q has had so much stupid attached to it in the last few years it’s kinda ruined the whole letter for me…

and it is synonymous with "Queue". Whilst Tesla fans get the joke, IMHO marketing wise it will not hit the desired market in the right way.

Ridiculous. Did fart mode hit the desired market in the right way? Did "open the butthole" hit the desired market the right way? S3XY? Short shorts?

I'm sure there may be people out there who are like, "grrr musk is a preteen who loves 69, and I'm not going to buy a car that is part of a sexy acronym, grrrr." But maybe that's not the 'desired market' anyway.

Tesla doesn't care if you get the joke or not. Their products are full of inside jokes and easter eggs. I've seen people accidentally turn on rainbow road and moar cowbell, and the adults get the SNL skit, while the kids get the Mario Kart reference.

For those who don't get why some people refer to the next downsized model as Q: it would be formally called the Tesla Model Q, or Tesla Q for short.
For a model that's intended to sell even more than 3/Y, I'd say that's schadenfreude turned to 11. Poor shorts.

As for Model 2, that technically was the Model S. Musk even called it that while it was in pre-development.

 

[Singuy]

Gary still pumping for a deeper WS discount on TSLA stock this morning:

View attachment 865702

If Elon is the world's dumbest person. So far the only time I have seen Elon sell his own shares was at Tesla's peak. Selling prior to AI day and P&D would be the best time and even a 5 yo could have predicted a sell the news event afterward.

Also it makes a lot of sense for Elon to get his team to miss wall street concensus on delivery by unwinding the wave just so he can "pump" the stock afterwards right?

 

[MrMoo]

If Elon is the world's dumbest person. So far the only time I have seen Elon sell his own shares was at Tesla's peak. Selling prior to AI day and P&D would be the best time and even a 5 yo could have predicted a sell the news event afterward.

Also it makes a lot of sense for Elon to get his team to miss wall street concensus on delivery by unwinding the wave just so he can "pump" the stock afterwards right?

So lets not move the goal post here then. You are saying if he does sell next week his the worlds dumbest person then? Because there is a lot of goal post moving everytime an event occurs. Because I'm going on the record saying his actually pretty stupid with this stuff (Stock market tricks).

 

[Hock1]

My advice to anyone speculating, if you haven't been personally using it, don't try to comment on it. Taking 1 or 2 or 3 drives doesn't suffice. Watching YT videos of others also doesn't depict it accurately.
Most opinions on Fsd beta are like some guy teaching self defense in a book that has never been in a fist fight in real life, or like Gordo's 1 year price targets.

This is exactly what Naseem Talib talks about in his book "Skin in the Game". It is not about money invested. It is the concept that if one has not actually experienced, or done extensive research on, the topic upon which he is opining, then his comment is worthless. It is not useful to others because it lacks the weight of actual experience.

Edit: originally gave Matt Taibbi as author

 

[Unpilot]

The next step down Tesla should be the Model 2/Z.

The letter Q has had so much stupid attached to it in the last few years it’s kinda ruined the whole letter for me…

um....not the letter Z....you know why.

 

[jeewee3000]

I actually don't think it's a waste of time. The fundamental difference between politics and Tesla is that Tesla is on an adoption curve, whereas in politics, pretty much everyone already adopted (has a stance). There are TONS of people out there who barely know who Elon Musk is. That gives you perspective on how wired we are into the goings-on of Musk vs the average person out there that has a life (haha).

Last year my service center had me wait there while they did a front windshield replacement. Naturally I eavesdropped while the sales team addressed people's questions as they walked in. People (the type who wouldn't know who runs Tesla) were asking the most basic of questions like:

- so these cars don't need any gas at all?
- do the batteries last longer than my phone?
- what to do if you get stranded trying to look for a charging station?

I ended up chiming in quite a bit to give them my owner's experience. Pretty sure I sold some cars that day. The foot traffic was amazing while i was there.

There's still a giant pool of people available to become loyal Tesla customers; they just haven't paid any attention to the early adoption process. They wouldn't be able to define what TSLAQ is. They don't know who Linette Lopez or Dan O' Dowd are, and they wouldn't get any references like pedo guy, funding secured, or Wario's partnership with Andrew Cuomo in the Italian-American anti-Defamation League (or at least how that relates to Tesla).

Fully agree.

We should really stay aware of the fact that TMC members/Tesla nerds are the minority of the population.
My wife, family, friends and work collegues have nowhere near the amount of information (or dare I say insight) regarding:
- Tesla (vehicles / energy)
- Elon
- the transition to sustainable energy (be it BEV's, storage, solar or wind)
- the status and BEV ambitions/plans of other OEMs
- SpaceX
- Boring Company
- Neuralink
- Open AI / Tesla AI / Dojo / Optimus
- Elon's twitter saga
- ...

Of course my wife knows more than the average person since I keep babbling about it, but I purposefully limit myself to explaining her the essentials since she doesn't care about the details like we do.

Most people don't. They shop for a car and want to know:
- what does it cost?
- how far can it go on a single tank/charge?
- what colour is it?
- what size is it?
- how comfortable is it?
- how safe is it?

Only TeslaQ nerds - which are equally in the minority like us - might care about the CEO of the company they're buying a car from. But again, if it's the best car for the least money, people generally put their "principles" aside.

So yeah, I don't think we should worry about Elon or memes "tainting" the brand/model names.

 

[mars_or_bust]

If Elon is the world's dumbest person. So far the only time I have seen Elon sell his own shares was at Tesla's peak. Selling prior to AI day and P&D would be the best time and even a 5 yo could have predicted a sell the news event afterward.

Also it makes a lot of sense for Elon to get his team to miss wall street concensus on delivery by unwinding the wave just so he can "pump" the stock afterwards right?

Actually Gary may unfortunately be right. Our very own FactChecking (Tesla Facts on twitter), expects a big SP drop due to Elon selling to cover the Twitter stuff.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582986627340959749