Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

21Q4 had 20 ships to EU 22 total ...

Yeah, but nothing can really be gleaned from any of this. Again, Troy's really making assumptions that can't be made without more data.

More exports to Europe doesn't mean overall production will be higher...and less exports to Europe doesn't mean overall production will be lower either.

It's just like comparing Tesla's "sales" in Europe in the 3rd month of a quarter, comparing it to European auto sales in that same month, and claiming that Tesla outsold everyone. In that case, you have to look at the entire quarterly number because European deliveries are still tail-loaded in the quarter. Similarly, all this hints at is the mix of Shanghai vehicles going to Europe vs. elsewhere. Can't really draw any solid production conclusions from that. Yes, it's a piece of the puzzle, but not a conclusive piece.

 

[NicoV]

Feels weird to see the NASDAQ hammered and TSLA doing OK this morning. I know, I know, the day is still young…

It’s because the front runners are now being front run in the other direction.

 

[elasalle]

It’s because the front runners are now being front run in the other direction.

Front runners found out that the marathon was in the opposite direction

 

[Mengy]

Don't get too excited.

It may turn out to only be one of those measly 5% days.

Right now I'd take a good 5% green day!

 

[KMCC]

None of the math of that rent-a-tesla-to-do-uber program makes any sense at all to me versus the driver directly leasing or buying it themselves other than perhaps it's available to those with otherwise horrendously bad, or no, credit?

Anyway the program is actually through Hertz- $334/week plus taxes and fees and one has to expect that'll be an SR+...LR is also available but no price listed.

https://www.uber.com/us/en/drive/vehicle-solutions/hertz/tesla/

Pretty sure the $334 a week includes insurance and maintenance so that's something

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It's a great company and all, but Chipotle is a great example. PE ratio of 57 right now. Does WS really expect that much growth from a taco shop? Seems like WS is stuck in the 90s and 2000s when Tech earnings would plummet if the economy was struggling. Tech is far more mature than it used to be and shouldn't be punished this hard IMO.

WS should be pricing in Robotaxi's that will take a % of revenue from Chipotle deliveries IMO

 

[ZsoZso]

Feels weird to see the NASDAQ hammered and TSLA doing OK this morning. I know, I know, the day is still young…

Smells like the Wall Street gang got the internal memo, that the Twitter overhang is gone and TSLA will be taking off like a SpaceX rocket from next Monday, so they have started front-running the rally.
In other words, just the usual shenanigans, fleecing retail investors both ways...
(after forcing a lot of them assigned shares at around $300 for PUTs that are still long way from expiry in the past couple of weeks, so they know those will not be ITM for much longer)

 

[winfield100]

I definitely saw the link of the original Twitter thread posted here (where I discovered it),
but I thought it was useful to post directly the Reuter images.
Very helpful for laymen out there.
View attachment 867672
View attachment 867673View attachment 867674

if you tediously take those bubble charts and put in spreadsheet you can get a nice pie chart, (and do some of us love pie!)

 

[StealthP3D]

Recycling will never slow the lithium business. There will never be enough batteries. Lithium mining will continue apace as long as lithium batteries dominate.

Never is a long time. I think lithium miners will probably hit hard times at some point, perhaps 30-40 years in the future. It will happen after batteries have hit massive scale are are being recycled as fast as they are made. Economic activity is cyclical and so this will happen during and extended downturn in economic activity. There is also the near certainty that entirely new battery chemistries, without lithium, will prove superior to even the best batteries today. This could happen before or after we have enough recycling of lithium to impact miners.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I definitely saw the link of the original Twitter thread posted here (where I discovered it),
but I thought it was useful to post directly the Reuter images.
Very helpful for laymen out there.
View attachment 867672
View attachment 867673View attachment 867674

Can you post the link to the original graphic? Sure shows which car maker will be dominant...

 

[2daMoon]

Right now I'd take a good 5% green day!

What if buyers actually got the memo about the new cover sheet for the TSP (Tesla Stock Price) Report?

Ummmm, yeah, I'm gonna need you to bump up purchases of TSLA today, m'kay?​

 

[StealthP3D]

Feels weird to see the NASDAQ hammered and TSLA doing OK this morning. I know, I know, the day is still young…

Is it always dark and dreary where you come from?

 

[Etna]

The problem I see with Quebec is snow. Pumping out 10,000 vehicles a week means a constant stream of vehicles coming out the factory and onto trucks. When it's snowing a foot outside, that is a problem....

(Internet search says they get more than 10 feet of snow/year)

It is indeed snowing a lot here, but since it is normal you won't get any disruptions. Everything is set up for it and only the occasional major snowstorm will cause temporary issues.

The language thing can be a nuisance for small businesses, but large corporations can handle it, Tesla already has a foothold as a corporation in Quebec servicing its cars that are selling like crazy here, like so many other places.

I personally would be very surprised to see a Gigafactory in Quebec, as car manufacturing is more an Ontario thing with several major car factories operating there along with its associated industrial ecosystem, versus none at all in Quebec. However, politically the Quebec's Provincial government is 100% behind Tesla's mission while Ontario's is actively sabotaging it so anything is possible.

 

[MartinAustin]

if you tediously take those bubble charts and put in spreadsheet you can get a nice pie chart, (and do some of us love pie!)
View attachment 867715

View attachment 867716

Is it correct that Toyota is nowhere to be found on those charts? What a change. Newcomer Tesla is the world's largest carmaker and Toyota isn't even getting its own name (hidden somewhere in "others")

 

[JRP3]

You think a provincial law about what the company needs to be named is some sort of obstacle? You think the economic benefits from a Tesla factory in that province don’t immediately outweigh such a law? Or that Elon can’t come up with a creative way to navigate that?

Did Germany turn out to have more obstacles than Elon expected? Did they cause delays for Tesla Elon didn't count on? The naming/language issue is just one small aspect of what could be similar ridiculous requirements.

 

[jerry33]

Meh. Surprised Elon would choose to put a factory in China given he’d have to partner with a Chinese JV - oh, wait.

You think a provincial law about what the company needs to be named is some sort of obstacle? You think the economic benefits from a Tesla factory in that province don’t immediately outweigh such a law? Or that Elon can’t come up with a creative way to navigate that? Please.

Given that Montreal used to be the financial capital of Canada, and now it's third rate at best after the insurance companies all left doesn't give me a very positive outlook.

 

[Drax7]

At least the days where snap and netflix disappointments would tank tesla seem over.

Microsoft and Google are just gigantic free cash flow machines that will continue
to dominate and buy their stock back. Their sell offs are a gift.

Google’s FCF to enterprise value exceeds 5%, better than the 10 year treasury at 4.06%.

 

[OrthoSurg]

The problem I see with Quebec is snow. Pumping out 10,000 vehicles a week means a constant stream of vehicles coming out the factory and onto trucks. When it's snowing a foot outside, that is a problem....

There is about 3 or 4 snowstorms a year that does in fact incapacitate the roads and the traffic becomes insane and they recommend everyone to stay at home if there is icing rain on top of that. The advantage is that salaries are lower, energy is cheaper and housing is cheaper for employees. And Montreal is a nice place to live with low criminality with great night life for Elon when he visits Tesla Criss-de-Grosse-Usine
(Internet search says they get more than 10 feet of snow/year)

 

[ZachF]

Feels weird to see the NASDAQ hammered and TSLA doing OK this morning. I know, I know, the day is still young…

At this point you should know to expect the unexpected with TSLA..

 

[ThisStockGood]

Now imagine if macros turn green at some point today. In that case the TSGOGOHP* is 5 %

* ThisStockGoodOfficialGainOfHonourPrediction