Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todesbuckler]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1587057366746406912

Based on VIN tracking in Norway, the estimated Giga Berlin production rate exceeds 3,000 Model Y per week.
Berlin and Austin combined should be at a run rate of 65,000 Model Y per quarter ((3,000+2,000)*13) and are still quickly ramping.

 

[traxila]

What are the odds of Shanghai going into another lockdown?

This zero covid policy is insane

It will almost certainly happen.

Pretty sure contingency plans Tesla has set up will allow them to continue to produce on much higher level than previously. Unless, of course, the positive occurs in the factory itself.

Then, Tesla will have to tear down the entire factory, quarantine all of the staff in a windowless steel room with exit points welded shut for six months and then soak the ground within a five mile radius in viricides for a year. Then they can rebuild with new COVID proof construction protocols. Of course, if a positive occurs…

 

[ZachF]

Anyone thinking the Buy America provisions are going unnoticed outside of USA needs to wake up fast. There will be a full-on USA-EU trade war quite soon if there is no change.

Climate Capital. Trade rift between EU and US grows over green industry and jobs
France says it will lose €8bn as businesses are given incentives to ‘Buy American’

Trade rift between EU and US grows over green industry and jobs

France says it will lose €8bn as businesses are given incentives to ‘Buy American’

www.ft.com

Lol

Go ahead. Start a trade war with the country that spends hundreds of billions a year defending your borders, securing your energy supplies, and and keeping the sea lanes safe for your exports, and does all of this while letting you have a trade surplus with us.

Normally I wouldn’t be so sour, but this kind of talk while the US has donated a sum larger than the entire French defense budget to assist Ukraine while Macron and Scholz labor tirelessly to avoid doing anything beyond the bare minimum to defend their own continent gets annoying.

 

[AudubonB]

Makes you wonder when CCP plans to boot Tesla and appropriate the technologies and innovation for their copycat products.

What makes ME wonder is why all the hard work, intelligent discussion and unsurpassed background knowledge and experience amassed in this thread can so often be ignored or just plain meritlessly contradicted by ones who appear out of nowhere

 

[Tony73]

Legitimate concern, in my opinion.

Not really. What exactly is this technology this China is so lacking in that it needs to steal from Tesla and then kick them out.
Batteries ? CATL is already the biggest battery cell maker in the world and a leader in next generation cell to pack technology. Large castings ? IDRA is owned by a Chinese consortium. Tesla China’s supply chain is 100% localized at this point. Chinese car companies have access to the same suppliers and consultants as western car companies. Employees move freely between companies. NIO has a large software development center in San Jose and a design center in Munich. Leading Chinese auto companies study the competition like all car companies do but they are not fundamentally built around copying. This is not the 2000s.

If the CCP were to ever hinder Tesla in some way or kick it out of China, it would be for political reasons. Most likely as retaliation for a U.S. government action. That is a very extreme scenario.

 

[verystandard]

Not really. What exactly is this technology this China is so lacking in that it needs to steal from Tesla and then kick them out.
Batteries ? CATL is already the biggest battery cell maker in the world and a leader in next generation cell to pack technology. Large castings ? IDRA is owned by a Chinese consortium. Tesla China’s supply chain is 100% localized at this point. Chinese car companies have access to the same suppliers and consultants as western car companies. Employees move freely between companies. NIO has a large software development center in San Jose and a design center in Munich. Leading Chinese auto companies study the competition like all car companies do but they are not fundamentally built around copying. This is not the 2000s.

If the CCP were to ever hinder Tesla in some way or kick it out of China, it would be for political reasons. Most likely as retaliation for a U.S. government action. That is a very extreme scenario.

To sums it up, in my opinion, this is the same theory as why Apple not afraid of iPhone 14 with Huawei/Xiaomi, vs Tesla with Nio/Xpeng/Li.

 

[carterm2]

Although an issue, I do think that it is an advantage to China to have Tesla there... and controversial moves (assimilating Tesla's GF) would damage its ability to sell products worldwide... and they do intend to dominate the BEV market ww.

Remember Google.cn?

from How Google took on China—and lost

"Amidst this home-grown success, the Chinese government decided to break the uneasy truce with Google. In mid-2014, a few months before Alibaba’s IPO, the government blocked virtually all Google services in China, including many considered essential for international business, such as Gmail, Google Maps, and Google Scholar. “It took us by surprise, as we felt Google was one of those valuable properties [that they couldn’t afford to block],” says Charlie Smith, the pseudonymous cofounder of GreatFire, an organization that tracks and circumvents Chinese internet controls.

The Chinese government had pulled off an unexpected hat trick: locking out the Silicon Valley giants, censoring political speech, and still cultivating an internet that was controllable, profitable, and innovative."

 

[carterm2]

The Simpsons... CT moment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586883478024384514

 

[Featsbeyond50]

This is not the 2000s.

If the CCP were to ever hinder Tesla in some way or kick it out of China, it would be for political reasons. Most likely as retaliation for a U.S. government action. That is a very extreme scenario.

The Chinese culture of anything you can get away with is fair game is still in place.

Political moves are very real, and I agree taking Shanghai would be extreme, but over time a statistically small chance becomes likely. See meteor analogy.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't particularly like Lex or his style, but he's a brilliant guy, and probably the camera doesn't help him (in the past I happened to host a small TV show and you'd be surprised how much television "steals" from a person personality/enthusiasm/personality. I bet in person he's much less boring.
He's humble, he can listen and he actually can follow people in very nerdy paths of conversation. Not a superpower but a real skill. How many podcasters out there can really talk to Karpathy?
Also, he's not afraid to talk for a lot of time, even if the conversation appears to be boring. That is likely something that helps people connect with him (if you haven't, check out is interview with Rick Rubin). Intimate conversation take time and aren't really flashy. It's a different kind of Youtube, distant from the boombastic podcasters or interviewers out there, with dopamine cuts and tight editing.
It's like old school, serious stuff, and smart people like to be taken seriously.

I don’t think I’ve ever read so many backhanded compliments in one post.

 

[ammulder]

What are the odds of Shanghai going into another lockdown?

This zero covid policy is insane

iPhone Output at Foxconn's Biggest Plant Could Fall by 30% Next Month Due to China Lockdowns

iPhone production at one of the world's largest factories could fall by as much as 30% next month due to tightening COVID-19 restrictions in...

www.macrumors.com

Sounds like a positive test at this actual factory, they’re estimating 30% lower production which I guess is with testing like crazy after the positive result and then shifting to closed loop?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

First of many....sooner than i expected...but it has begun:

Stellantis says Jeep joint venture in China to file for bankruptcy

The venture between Stellantis and Guangzhou Automobile Group producing Jeep vehicles in China is filing for bankruptcy, Stellantis said on Monday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Mengy]

You are right it is green on the 2 year chart, by quite a lot. Give it another 7 weeks and if we are around where we are now, then we'll be red on a 2 year chart. But look that's just noise, 4 weeks from now, 6 weeks from now. It's been around 2 years and we haven't really made much progress was my point.

Two years and no progress??!?!?


We have two new Giga factories up and ramping. Production rate at both Fremont and Shanghai are at all time highs. EPS is up 18X. Revenues are up 165%. Car production is up 180%. 4680 production is active and ramping. Cybertruck is about to go into production. Semi goes into production next month. Optimus is now in development. FSD Beta is better than ever and improving rapidly, AND about to go into wide release.


Two years and no progress? If you believe that then you are not paying attention to the important things about Tesla. This company is stronger than ever, it's future is brighter than ever, it's financials are better than I could have hoped for at this stage.

The positive progress over two years has been astounding, in my opinion.

 

[larmor]

iPhone Output at Foxconn's Biggest Plant Could Fall by 30% Next Month Due to China Lockdowns

iPhone production at one of the world's largest factories could fall by as much as 30% next month due to tightening COVID-19 restrictions in...

www.macrumors.com

Sounds like a positive test at this actual factory, they’re estimating 30% lower production which I guess is with testing like crazy after the positive result and then shifting to closed loop?

Or a convenient excuse for lower sales of the new iphone. I got one and every interaction using the internet is about 10 to 30 seconds longer. The user engagement analytics would then skyrocket in terms of time used. So much winning.

 

[Krugerrand]

Agreed actions speak louder than words. One more interested in the spotlight than I might take actions such as raising a shareholder proposal.

Instead, the action I have taken has been to discuss these types of concerns with other investors, and use it to make informed decisions such as whether to hold or sell shares, selling another 9,000 shares last week (selling, not short selling, lest there be any confusion). The continued conversation some of us would like to have regarding the words and actions of a major shareholder and major executive and public face of a company we are all (presumably all here at least) invested in is a reasonable conversation to have, and will help inform my next actions r.e. holding or selling additional blocks.

Perfect, though you might want to accelerate your selling as this type of thing is quite likely to happen again - perhaps as early as within the hour.

To be clear, my disagreement isn’t investors reasonably discussing a circumstance and how it relates to their investment. My disagreement is it’s the SAME discussion by a number of the SAME people with the SAME result; a big fat nothing.

So my observation holds until every last person (and they know who they are) who live for the *right* to complain, criticize and chastise ad naseum on the matter follows your lead or does something equally as proactive.

 

[Unpilot]

Every week on Monday I think "this is the week Tesla SP breaks out"

So maybe this week?

 

[elasalle]

Every week on Monday I think "this is the week Tesla SP breaks out"

So maybe this week?

Repeat after me .... "FOMC "

Dovish FOMC notes, and the whole market is gonna fly ... else only the Hawk is gonna keep soaring ...

Tesla could have made 3Q the perfect Q, now we need to keep our fingers crossed that there ain't gonna be any Covid shutdowns for another 2 mths.

 

[Krugerrand]

Two years and no progress??!?!?


We have two new Giga factories up and ramping. Production rate at both Fremont and Shanghai are at all time highs. EPS is up 18X. Revenues are up 165%. Car production is up 180%. 4680 production is active and ramping. Cybertruck is about to go into production. Semi goes into production next month. Optimus is now in development. FSD Beta is better than ever and improving rapidly, AND about to go into wide release.


Two years and no progress? If you believe that then you are not paying attention to the important things about Tesla. This company is stronger than ever, it's future is brighter than ever, it's financials are better than I could have hoped for at this stage.

The positive progress over two years has been astounding, in my opinion.

Obviously, he’s referencing the SP progress. As an *investor* he’s disappointed that the SP hasn’t increased another 1000%.

We could explain to him about the many years before, long base, heavy shorting, blatant attempts at destruction, big rise, blah, blah, blah. And you’ve done a wonderful job explaining what’s happened with the company the last two years. But honestly, are we even convinced he’s here to know any of it given his membership join date? Like wouldn’t he have started by reading through the forum archives if he was a serious *investor*?

 

[Unpilot]

Repeat after me .... "FOMC "

Dovish FOMC notes, and the whole market is gonna fly ... else only the Hawk is gonna keep soaring ...

Next week it will be a huge Call/Put wall.
Week after an Elon tweet.

Is it never news of the fundamental strength of the company.

That is where my disconnect it.

I keep hoping for a rational market....but I suppose that is like hoping a cat will be sensible.

 

[JRP3]

What makes ME wonder is why all the hard work, intelligent discussion and unsurpassed background knowledge and experience amassed in this thread can so often be ignored or just plain meritlessly contradicted by ones who appear out of nowhere

It's a troll that attempts to derail every thread they post in.