Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WattsHappening]

Toyota cuts output target amid chip crunch as profit tumbles 25%

Toyota Motor Corp on Tuesday posted a worse-than-expected 25% drop in quarterly profit and cut its annual output target, as the Japanese firm battles surging material costs and a persistent semiconductor shortage.

www.reuters.com

Anyone here surprised? We’re going to see more and more of these misses from Tesla’s ‘competitors.’

 

[insaneoctane]

Semi:

As we've been discussing up thread, it seems purely on a per kWh basis, there are likely other products with higher GM to use your battery supply on. I'm appreciating that this is a really good use of a subsidy - not many companies have a mission like Tesla. I'm sure other companies will offer "compliance" versions with minimal batteries to collect the subsidies, but we've seen this movie before...

 

[SmokyPeat]

Futures looking good. Maybe today will be the breakout day we've been waiting for.

 

[MC3OZ]

Took a while to find a link I felt safe posting:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586403472500355073

How serious are BYD's global aspirations? Word in China is it has commissioned a Yantai shipyard to build 8 Ro-Ro ships, each capable of holding 7700 cars. Price? 5 billion yuan ($US689 million). Six are said to be on order, with option for two more.

I wonder how the economics of owning the shipping fleet compares to just booking transport with established shipping companies.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Took a while to find a link I felt safe posting:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586403472500355073

I wonder how the economics of owning the shipping fleet compares to just booking transport with established shipping companies.

BYD is a serious player in the EV future, without a doubt. Their in house LFP battery production gives them a distinct advantage over most of the other automakers.

 

[Bet TSLA]

So that's how Henry got Ford to 60% market share? By offending decent people everywhere?

Dang! Why does Tesla only have 2% market share?

Not really a joking matter. Henry Ford was sufficiently reprehensible that he was the only American specifically mentioned in Mein Kampf. He was a rabid anti-semite and Hitler found him inspirational. Not the sort of path I want to see Elon follow, no matter what the market share.

 

[insaneoctane]

I am far from a ML expert, but thought I'd share my newfound perspective on bFSD- turning more bullish :
I've been somewhat critical of the progress of bFSD for awhile now. It requires a considerable amount of interventions for most of my suburb and city commutes around Southern California. It doesn't drive as "good" as I do for many of the maneuvers. Honestly, it often embarrasses me when interacting with other vehicles. It still exhibits random phantom braking and often brakes far more abruptly and less smoothly than me. I can go on, but you get the point. My disappointment is primarily with the gap between what I want it to do (end state) and what it really does (capability today).

I'm beginning to think of it differently now. I think seeing the addition of the occupancy network gave me new insight. While Tesla has ultimately been working on giving me what I want (end state)...tactically, they've been working more on the building blocks that will ensure their ability to eventually fully solve the problem. They've been adding new NN components like Birds-eye 3D space and then the occupancy network, etc. Each of these new approaches allowing better training to solve problems that have been elusive before. The current capability of bFSD is more a testament that the building blocks are approaching "good enough". I suspect many of the things I want bFSD to do better, Tesla has confidence (or even knowledge) that they have the correct building blocks to allow iterate training to ultimately improve and master, so they turn their attention on the next problem to ensure it's solvable. I feel like their energy hasn't been to iterate the current NN to be the best it can be, rather iterate enough to highlight the next new building block required. It feels like the ratio of energy used for seeking new building blocks vs iterating the current ones is shifting towards iteration and that's when we can start to see things improve quickly.

 

[samn]

I am far from a ML expert, but thought I'd share my newfound perspective on bFSD- turning more bullish :
I've been somewhat critical of the progress of bFSD for awhile now. It requires a considerable amount of interventions for most of my suburb and city commutes around Southern California. It doesn't drive as "good" as I do for many of the maneuvers. Honestly, it often embarrasses me when interacting with other vehicles. It still exhibits random phantom braking and often brakes far more abruptly and less smoothly than me. I can go on, but you get the point. My disappointment is primarily with the gap between what I want it to do (end state) and what it really does (capability today).

I'm beginning to think of it differently now. I think seeing the addition of the occupancy network gave me new insight. While Tesla has ultimately been working on giving me what I want (end state)...tactically, they've been working more on the building blocks that will ensure their ability to eventually fully solve the problem. They've been adding new NN components like Birds-eye 3D space and then the occupancy network, etc. Each of these new approaches allowing better training to solve problems that have been elusive before. The current capability of bFSD is more a testament that the building blocks are approaching "good enough". I suspect many of the things I want bFSD to do better, Tesla has confidence (or even knowledge) that they have the correct building blocks to allow iterate training to ultimately improve and master, so they turn their attention on the next problem to ensure it's solvable. I feel like their energy hasn't been to iterate the current NN to be the best it can be, rather iterate enough to highlight the next new building block required. It feels like the ratio of energy used for seeking new building blocks vs iterating the current ones is shifting towards iteration and that's when we can start to see things improve quickly.

Totally agree (although I don't have the FSD beta myself), from what Tesla has shared and watching progress and reports it seems clear to me that they are after the end game not a quick fix. This is evident as they double down on vision and remove other sensors. They want the system to see a situation and correctly identify all the components and handle it properly based on the most general AI possible. They are now starting to add layers like memory to enhance this general AI only when they feel it is absolutely needed. Watching this process is absolutely amazing

 

[RobDickinson]

Toyota cuts output target amid chip crunch as profit tumbles 25%

Toyota Motor Corp on Tuesday posted a worse-than-expected 25% drop in quarterly profit and cut its annual output target, as the Japanese firm battles surging material costs and a persistent semiconductor shortage.

www.reuters.com

Anyone here surprised? We’re going to see more and more of these misses from Tesla’s ‘competitors.’

$3.79bn profit from Toyota vs $3.33bn from tesla.

Slight difference in volume of vehicle sales though still

 

[lascavarian]

Crude under 90, 10 yr under 4, futures a bit green

 

[Buckminster]

FSD Beta 10.69.3 release notes

 

[Buckminster]

Tim's coverage starts in 3 hours:

 

[jw934]

With this new “Context” feature, Elon is setting up Twitter as a tool to fight FUD on all topics globally. Huge benefit to Tesla is implied.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1587266665485856768

Edit: [ @JRP3 corrected me that this was used prior to the buyout.]

 

[winfield100]

If only SpaceX discussions intruded as much. Then at least it there would be cool videos to counter the whinging.

I'll leave this here for those who wake up early and can enjoy it live.

PS I apologize for my contributions to the Twitter talk. I try to resist but get drawn in. My ignore list grew a bit today.

the neat thing about SpaceX launches, when they land back at the Cape, you can experimentally verify the speed of sound ~760mph, by closely listening for the double sonic booms even ~200 miles away. (about 14-15 minutes delay from the light in the sky flashes) (the storm surge missed flooding my house by ~1.5 inches when it came up the canal very rapidly)(no we didnt get a _free_ boat, but a number of neighbors did)

 

[Favguy]

Sure they do. They don't want other people to look at the car they're driving and think that it means that they support Elon Musk's bad behavior. Pretty sure there must have been many people who wouldn't drive a Ford back in the day because Henry was a racist and a Nazi supporter.

Back in the early '50's when the first VW shipments got to the UK, 90% of the cars were vandalised before they got to the dealership, such was the anti German feeling because of what the Nazi's had done a few years earlier.

I'm sincerely hoping people don't start taking it out on Tesla's. I've already had one leary comment at a charging point a few days ago about how can you live with yourself driving that, knowing who owns the company! Never had anyone even mention Elon before to me locally, but he's getting reported on our news channels now, generally described as a "controversial figure" or similar.

 

[InDaClub]

Big money doesn’t like complete QAnon whack jobs as the the CEO of companies they invest in. I’ll say it again. The board needs to have a plan for dealing with this. He’s only going to get worse.

Jmho.

Listen, if you’re going to go full on Drama Queen as least give us some advanced warning.

 

[jw934]

News:

Tesla Sends Shanghai Workers to California for Factory Boost

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. is sending engineers and production staff from its recently upgraded Shanghai factory to its plant in Fremont, California, in a bid to boost production at the US facility, according to people familiar with the plans.Most Read from BloombergDemocrats Prepare for Loss of...

finance.yahoo.com

“Tesla will dispatch staff -- in particular automation and control engineers -- to assist efforts to increase output in Fremont, where Tesla produces the Model S, X, 3 and Y vehicles, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. About 200 people will head to California on assignments that will last at least three months, one of the people said. The first workers are setting off as soon as this month, the person added.”

This makes sense as Elon has often praised Tesla China staff over the years.

 

[Unpilot]

FSD Beta 10.69.3 release notes

Guessing .1% of people understand that list.

 

[EverettRuess]

$3.79bn profit from Toyota vs $3.33bn from tesla.

Slight difference in volume of vehicle sales though still

To put this in perspective. Saudi Aramco had 42 billion in profit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/business/saudi-aramco-oil-profit.html

 

[jschwefel]

From the competition is coming department. Hive mind at reddit says they are running commercials just to stop people from buying EVs that are available today.

https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/yht8p1

I wondered the same thing, then I realized GM is better at marketing and advertising than they are at making cars. The best part is they are raising EV awareness and that helps all of us.