Looks like I've learned something new, never too late for that. Apologies to @TheTalkingMule for (inadvertently) bypassing his privacy settings and revealing his last seen date.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Looks like I've learned something new, never too late for that. Apologies to @TheTalkingMule for (inadvertently) bypassing his privacy settings and revealing his last seen date.
From the shadows, he strikes
I would bet a lot of it is from that Reuters article that says Tesla won't start mass production of CyberTruck until late 2023... based on 2 "informed sources." Now it's blowing up everywhere and has NOT been verified by Tesla.
Edit: forgot to include CyberTruck first time around...
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Agreed. The "copy paste" doesn't mean the new effort is trivial, but it makes sense to (re)use technology where one can. Especially for early prototypes for pathfinding...
The Optimus development bot using an FSD computer and the general FSD NN stack for vision/navigation is a prime example. And it also is a great example of how Tesla's "general" AI approach, while harder to implement", has multiple payoffs...
Everything on my Watchlist, except Meta, is falling.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
So is the theory that ads will go to Facebook instead? It’s kinda logical for the folks burning their Twitter bridges. I’m afraid to tell them, I don’t click on any ads, anywhere. They are off point for me, not useful.
Not sure why you think people are absorbed in media or what that has to do with the impression of the Tesla brand.And all of my friends and spouse will. Yeah, that’s nothing more than a tit for tat comment but it reveals that there’s a lot more to see than a spouse and circle of friends - all of which btw are exchangeable.
Just yesterday a couple I’ve recently gotten to know were working near my car. I asked them if the car was in the way and then whipped out my phone and summoned the car. Blew their minds. They’ve asked one question about Elon and I don’t even remember what it was - that’s how mundane it was. Nobody within a hundred miles of The Mountain partakes in social media to any degree, not even the kids. Everyone is too busy living life. I suggest that others who find themselves so absorbed in it (media, social or otherwise), take a step back, and also concentrate a bit more on living their lives.
But the point is your friends and spouse will buy a Tesla, but they likely would have already bought Tesla before. There is, however, there is a segment of people, who used to want a Tesla, that no longer want anything to do with Tesla. The market for Tesla is not as large as it could be and the Tesla brand has a tarnish that it does not need.
Moreover, many Tesla (Elon) fans have refused to recognize this needless damage to Tesla and hold a CEO accountable, this becoming enablers to further behavior.
Wife's car is a 2022 eTron GT (not an SUV), so nothing like a Model Y.
Sadly, it makes my Model S feel like a kit car.
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ZachF
Active Member
I remember when Mark Zuckerberg used to be worth more than Tesla, now Elon is almost worth more than Meta/Facebook…
ZachF
Active Member
Probably shorts covering more than anything… it’s down like 30% in just the last week.
While we are OT,
the earth after being clobbered by the large asteroid is still FAR more habitable than Mars is and will ever be.
It has crucial-for-life van Allen Belts (and it still would).
It has oxygen (and it still would) and an atmosphere that will hold in place (unlike Mars' will ever again no matter how much O2 or CO2 we pump into it).
It would still have the basic life substrate (microbial life) that took a couple billion years to lay down (and could only happen given the above).
Due to those factors alone, I cannot think of a global catastrophe (even nuclear war) that would leave Terra less hospitable to life than Mars.
If we want to build in a lifeless place to have a secondary colony (possibly a good idea indeed) the moon is a lot closer and the solar there is FANTASTIC compared to Mars. (For some reason I now think of the Dilbert cartoon where Dogbert is selling half price lottery tickets. Dilbert recognizes "those are a day old, they are no good anymore" and Dogbert points out "But it's a great deal. 1/2 price but only 0.000001% less chance of winning!").
Yes, keep building the rockets, great tech with many uses, maybe we'll mine the asteroid belt, but the Mars thing still makes no sense to me.
Just saying, while we are OT.
It has crucial-for-life van Allen Belts (and it still would).
It has oxygen (and it still would) and an atmosphere that will hold in place (unlike Mars' will ever again no matter how much O2 or CO2 we pump into it).
It would still have the basic life substrate (microbial life) that took a couple billion years to lay down (and could only happen given the above).
Due to those factors alone, I cannot think of a global catastrophe (even nuclear war) that would leave Terra less hospitable to life than Mars.
If we want to build in a lifeless place to have a secondary colony (possibly a good idea indeed) the moon is a lot closer and the solar there is FANTASTIC compared to Mars. (For some reason I now think of the Dilbert cartoon where Dogbert is selling half price lottery tickets. Dilbert recognizes "those are a day old, they are no good anymore" and Dogbert points out "But it's a great deal. 1/2 price but only 0.000001% less chance of winning!").
Yes, keep building the rockets, great tech with many uses, maybe we'll mine the asteroid belt, but the Mars thing still makes no sense to me.
Just saying, while we are OT.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Companies make supply chain decisions, export/import decision, and production decisions at least quarterly, and usually monthly. When you do that, you to a total cost breakdown and calculate expected margins and expected demand. When you see a new tariff put into place, you see demand drop, simply because pricing goes up. That directly affects your calculations because our production volume decreases due to decreased demand, and costs per unit produced go up. Larger companies have all this programmed into software on the back-end and can see the numbers change very quickly, and thereby alter their manufacturing, sales, etc. numbers.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
- $40k commercial clean vehicle credit
- ~$50/kWh advanced manufacturing tax credit no matter what vehicle each cell goes into
If shorter-range Semi has maybe 650 kWh pack, then $40k / 650 kWh = ~$60/kWh extra subsidy
Just guessing, if Semi was going to make 15% gross margin in early years on $150k price, that's $23k gross profit before subsidies. The $40k addition and $50/kWh pushes it up to $95k. 650 kWh / $95k = ~$150/kWh
New Model Ys will make around $25k gross profit before subsidy impact I think, using about 65 kWh of battery on average --> ~$385/kWh gross profit
$7.5k additional subsidy and $50/kWh --> Another $165/kWh, bumping total to $550 gross profit per kWh on Model Y.
So even with subsidies pushing the expected gross margin of the Semi to probably well over 50% for deliveries in the US, there's still roughly a 3-4x difference in profit (plus consumer surplus) per kWh for the Y. If battery supply is the constraint in 2023, then selling the Semi is not likely the profit-maximizing move, at least in the short term.
This implies either that batteries are actually not going to be the limiting factor on growth for a while, or that Tesla has other reasons beyond immediate profitability. Some ideas:
- Eliminate more diesel demand more quickly since the usageper kWh per year will be much higher with a commercial truck than with an average Y
- Helps company stay focused on mission and ethics which may help with making more money in the long run anyway
- Start experimenting with real Semi usage now and real Megacharger usage now, in order to learn and iterate
- Helps with being ready for serious scaling some years from now
- Brand value of getting Semi out there and following through on promise from 5 years ago
- Eliminates notion that it's just vaporware, may also help attract talent to work at Tesla
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Truth doesn’t alter the reality that most major automakers and many other major companies have had morally reprehensible founders. This line of reasoning seems out of place here. At a minimum arguments about origin morality of Ford, General Motors, VW, BMW, Hyundai, Toyota et al should be in dedicated threads on Telgeram or elsewhere. Not here.
Sorry for picking on you. I’m just fed up with bizarre attempts at moral assertions.
Last Friday (Oct 28) morning I was on vacation and watched an extensive interview on CNBC with the SEC chair on various topics. During the live interview the newsflash popped up that there were Tesla employees helping Elon with the Twitter code review. A second CNBC interviewer interrupted and asked SEC on the legality of such actions in general. The response was that, (paraphrasing): In general, boards of companies have great latitude to make decisions on how they use their employees' efforts.
Can't find a YouTube link, but here is a screenshot that I think was from that interview.
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Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Better yet, do this: For everyone claiming October numbers show Chinese demand has cratered, remind them that the only number that matters is production. Tesla is an automaker in which cars are sold before they're made. Therefore, production numbers are a direct indicator of sales, limited by production capacity. The cars don't go to dealer lots to be sold later. It doesn't matter if the car goes to China, Australia, or Timbuktu. Sold cars is all that matters.
Production is all that matters. Come on everyone, join in the Rob Maurer chant: PRODUCTION IS ALL THAT MATTERS!
Serenity now, serenity now, serenity now.
My dude, deliveries. Deliveries.
If you don't ship, you don't have anything in the business world.
ZachF
Active Member
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