Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AquaY]

Wondering if there is anyone on TMC that believes Wall Street doesn’t yet know what the Fed Interest Rate decision will be shortly………………asking for a friend

Just about everyone knows what the Fed interest rate decesion will be shortly.

 

[StealthP3D]

PMC bloat is real.

So is acronym bloat in the 2020's.

 

[Gigapress]

It was a very arbitrary choice, and one which I see after review actually weakened my thesis.

I had tried several possible combos of how to measure short-term stock price movement when I did this analysis back in August and found that it doesn't really affect the overall average results much. This is due to the fact that differences between the open-to-close % change and the open-to-next-day-open % change average out to approximately zero, and my overall sample size for stock sales is 20, which is reasonably large. I presented tables and graphs for only one of them for brevity's sake.

Here is the scatter plot again with the requested adjustment to use the difference between opening price on days Elon has sold and the opening price the next day.

View attachment 870256

As we can see, there is clearly no negative effect and if anything the TSLA price tends to be slightly higher on the morning after Elon's selling days, which happened in 13 out of 20 instances (65%).

The average increase after Elon's sales measured this way was +1.3% after adjusting for TSLA's beta and what the S&P 500 did that day, compared to a baseline average of +0.1%.

In fact, that adjustment appears to make the case stronger that even on the days Elon sold more than 5% of the float there was zero measurable impact by opening bell the following day.

After looking at all this data I think we can conclude that the only reason to care about exactly when Elon sells stock and exactly how much he's selling is if:

• You're day trading TSLA
• It happens to be one of the rare days in which Elon is going to sell 5% or more of the volume
• You somehow know this in advance
• You have no ethical or legal qualms about insider trading

Therefore, I wish this issue would stop garnering so much unwarranted attention to make room for information and discussion that's actually useful.

Update: Mistake in making this graph. I was not calculating for the right dates due to a typo.

Here is the correct one showing some potential one-day open-to-open negative bias correlated with Elon selling. However, the effect is small at about 2% +/- 2%, which is the same result I got originally when looking at open-to-close intraday price changes.

More importantly, the point remains that TSLA has averaged about 1% net gain 5 trading days after Elon selling, and the S&P500 has been far more explanatory than even Tesla's earnings per share numbers.

 

[EVMeister]

Update: Mistake in making this graph. I was not calculating for the right dates due to a typo.

It's OK, we forgive you...

 

[ZachF]

That's the point! How power efficient does this look to you?

View attachment 870233
View attachment 870234

....... vs something a little more S3XY

View attachment 870237

(Ok, this is a little biased, but you get the idea)

Those draggy LiDAR assemblies on the roof probably reduce range ~20% just by themselves.

 

[Gigapress]

Those draggy LiDAR assemblies on the roof probably reduce range ~20% just by themselves.

Not if you geofence to downtown San Fransisco city driving with a top speed of 30 mph. No airflow, no drag.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/02/c...r-driverless-robotaxi-rides-in-san-francisco/

 

[scaesare]

Big qualifier: "for plugins"

That weasel-word always bugs me.

By that metric my Ford 7.3 Liter Turbodiesel with plugin block heater would have qualified....

 

[larmor]

Just about everyone knows what the Fed interest rate decesion will be shortly.

Decession-- a recession based on a Fed decision.

 

[Discoducky]

Decession-- a recession based on a Fed decision.

Some data on what the market is predicting for today and Dec 14th. But I'm thinking a recession is imminent at this point due to leading indicators as opposed to the lagging indicators the Fed is using.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

 

[woodisgood]

As @unk45, and before him or her, @jbcarioca mercilessly would pound on this thread, the Clean Technica’s Top 20 chart perfectly illustrates the breadth and depth of Chinese players in the Plug-in market. If I haven’t confused some Korean with Chinese names, 15 of those vehicles are Chinese, plus Tesla, Hyundai, Kia & VW.
The only other item I’d like to share, for the sole benefit of @RobDickinson, @Thekiwi and some other UpsideDowners, is that it’s obvious to me that it is incumbent on Kia and GW Ora to merge

My big takeaway from that list is there’s an EV named “Good Cat.” This is why I‘m an exceptional investor.

 

[Gigapress]

Seattle TSLA Investors Summit Notes

• Was a smashing success yesterday
• 11 people attended for about 6 hours
  • Apparently at least some of us on the forum are real humans and not stock-pumping internet bots
  • Heavy demographic skew towards white males, middle-aged and older, and engineers
  • Nice people
  • 8 out of 11 have FSD Beta
  • Apparently most of us here are retired, but that may just reflect response bias of who was available to meet on a Tuesday to talk about Tesla
• No one agrees on when FSD will be ready for initial robotaxi but the group average estimate was around 2024
• Lots of AI, margin and ramp discussions
• General optimism about 2023 and 2024
• Interest in discussing Twitter and Elon's involvement in politics is clearly not restricted to this thread
• Many theories about why only a small minority of people seem to understand Tesla right now
• @Discoducky believes Optimus will eventually work as advertised
• Canada has giant subsidies that would apply for Tesla Semi, which may make sales there even better than in USA despite $40k clean vehicle tax credit
  • Canada also has cheap electricity and expensive diesel compared to USA
• Seems like most of us are more bullish now than we were yesterday morning

Highly recommended for people to organize similar events in other regions.

 

[StealthP3D]

Admit I don’t know the ICE comparative. 20 struck me as kinda slow, but if twice as fast as ICE that should be fine, the comparative economics will drive the rapid changeover.

Not only is 20 seconds to 60 mph blazingly fast for a fully loaded semi, it's also considerably faster than President Reagan's 1987 Cadillac Fleetwood Brougham d'Elegance limo (23.5 sec.) and faster than a 2011 Smart Fortwo Electric Drive car by Daimler AG with only a driver inside (22.4 sec.) and even faster than a 2008 International Prostar Limited (Semi Truck without a trailer or any load at 24.2 sec.). That's right, the Tesla Semi with the maximum legal load can accelerate faster than the 2008 International Prostar Limited without a trailer or any load beyond the driver.

 

[dm28997]

I was able to buy in the 221 range and am grateful for this price.
A benefit of higher interest rates is that Tesla gets great return on cash which no one seems to see. That's ok with me.

 

[Ogre]

Seattle TSLA Investors Summit Notes

• Was a smashing success yesterday
• 11 people attended for about 6 hours
  • Apparently at least some of us on the forum are real humans and not stock-pumping internet bots
  • Heavy demographic skew towards white males and engineers
  • Nice people
• No one agrees on when FSD will be ready for initial robotaxi but the group average estimate was around 2024
• Lots of AI, margin and ramp discussions
• Many theories about why only a minority of people seem to understand Tesla right now
• @Discoducky believes Optimus will eventually work as advertised
• Canada has giant subsidies that would apply for Tesla Semi, which may make sales there even better than in USA despite $40k clean vehicle tax credit
  • Canada also has cheap electricity and expensive diesel compared to USA

Highly recommended for people to organize similar events in other regions.

Sorry I missed this, just too far for a day trip. Maybe someone in Portland can organize one and we can meet in the middle.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Whoa... Petro Canada, 50 cents per minute charging, about 2x current levels.
Better consider a Tesla instead?

Petro-Canada issues huge EV charging fee increase across the country, one week after acknowledging how unreliable their network is [Update]

Plugging in and charging on Petro-Canada’s Electric Highway just got a lot more expensive for EV owners. Instead of billing owners at differing rates in each province, the oil giant has now instituted a flat […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[thesmokingman]

This is related to chips, but more powder for the slowing global demand for chips in this case one of TSMC's largest customers (yet unnamed) (my guess is AMD or Apple) has slashed their 3nm wafer orders as consumer demand drops... or more like plummets. Let's go JPow, recognize what's happening in the world around yall.

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money.udn.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

Update: Mistake in making this graph. I was not calculating for the right dates due to a typo.

Here is the correct one showing some potential one-day open-to-open negative bias correlated with Elon selling. However, the effect is small at about 2% +/- 2%, which is the same result I got originally when looking at open-to-close intraday price changes.

More importantly, the point remains that TSLA has averaged about 1% net gain 5 trading days after Elon selling, and the S&P500 has been far more explanatory than even Tesla's earnings per share numbers.



View attachment 870284

Love the data, one tiny unknown. What would it have done if he did not sell. He could have been managing the teasers and pricing to keep a bullish tone. Just sayin, but without my data, your's wins the day.

 

[Krugerrand]

..not to forget the expectation/fear of Elon (possibly) selling. Market does not like uncertainty.

The market isn’t afraid of anything. That’s an *excuse* it uses to increase money making churn. The market CREATES the fear. The market also CREATES the uncertainty. The market CREATES the doubt.

Stop falling for the game and repeating the market’s narratives. Be Lucy, not Charlie.

 

[thesmokingman]

The market isn’t afraid of anything. That’s an *excuse* it uses to increase money making churn. The market CREATES the fear. The market also CREATES the uncertainty. The market CREATES the doubt.

Stop falling for the game and repeating the market’s narratives. Be Lucy, not Charlie.

Kind of like a perpetual game of texas hold'em...

 

[Krugerrand]

You assume the price wouldn't have been higher those days without the sales. Elon selling has a longer term depressing effect on the share price as does continued uncertainty over potential future sales.

You assumed the opposite. How can his assumption be wrong, but your assumption correct? Both would be assumptions.