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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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- elon is an ass
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Unless production is 15k higher, which is a stretch, this is a rather disappointing number. Maybe there’s 10k sitting on the lot and at the docks
.More realistic to expect 230k or so out of Shanghai instead of 270k.
What exactly does this number miss? Cars not loaded onto ships at the docks and cars sold locally not yet delivered? If Tesla is not killing themselves to deliver a la wave (they never did in first month of Q anyway), then it makes sense for a week of production to not be in that number which should translate to 15 to 20k.Unless production is 15k higher, which is a stretch, this is a rather disappointing number. Maybe there’s 10k sitting on the lot and at the docks
More realistic to expect 230k or so out of Shanghai instead of 270k.
It is a record first month of the quarter and Tesla does ramp towards the end of the Q, but 230 to 250 is probably the number for Shanghai in 4Q.
But Shanghai is doing great in the end. What we really need is for Austin and Berlin to ramp. Don’t know why we will not get 50K between the two of them this Q.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Yes, for China numbers any cars at the docks or in transit from the factory intended for export, as well as any local cars sold but not registered or in transit to customers are not included in the count. So this number gives us a lower bound.
The question is, how much of the delivery overhang from Q3 was counted as exported, vs still sitting in the docks at the end of Sep? That determines how much of that Q3 overhang was actually counted in September’s number vs October. Not sure we have that information.
Obviously it’s the best first month we’ve ever seen, but it’s hard to gauge exactly where production numbers sit from this as again, logistics matters.
The question is, how much of the delivery overhang from Q3 was counted as exported, vs still sitting in the docks at the end of Sep? That determines how much of that Q3 overhang was actually counted in September’s number vs October. Not sure we have that information.
Obviously it’s the best first month we’ve ever seen, but it’s hard to gauge exactly where production numbers sit from this as again, logistics matters.
Just because Tesla kept the factory open and paid triple time doesn't mean 100% of the work force decided to stay. Production should still be affected during the holidays.Unless production is 15k higher, which is a stretch, this is a rather disappointing number. Maybe there’s 10k sitting on the lot and at the docks
More realistic to expect 230k or so out of Shanghai instead of 270k.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Market shoots way up today. Mark my words.
Why? Cramer’s Phillies lost in a no-hitter.
Why? Cramer’s Phillies lost in a no-hitter.
New report showing EU BEV increased from 9.8% of new car sale in Q3 2021 to 11.9% for Q3 2022.
www.acea.auto
Fuel types of new cars: battery electric 11.9%, hybrid 22.6% and petrol 37.8% market share in Q3 2022
Brussels, 3 November 2022 - In the third quarter of 2022, the market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased further, accounting for 11.9% of total EU passenger car registrations.
www.acea.auto
From the fourth Tweet in the threadUnless production is 15k higher, which is a stretch, this is a rather disappointing number. Maybe there’s 10k sitting on the lot and at the docks
More realistic to expect 230k or so out of Shanghai instead of 270k.
ZachF
Active Member
ZachF
Active Member
Depends on whether Powell speaks today
I have come to realize Powell speaking has now more effect on the stock price than Elon tweeting anything he thinks. Elon speaking about how he sees TSLA being a 10T valued company has less effect on the stock price than Powell hawkishness.
Congo Line
(not the dance)
JPow is a holdover appointee from a Republican administration.
Controversial opinion: small but real possibility that he is intentionally tanking the markets and economy as an act of sabotage against the current administration.
Whether one likes Biden or not, personally I think he made a political mistake in keeping Powell on for another term. Would have been easy to blame and fire him for failing to realize inflation was not 'transitory' when it first appeared.
Regardless, Powell clearly wants to deflate the stock market, which means we may need to be bravely HODLing through unfavorable macro for longer than previously anticipated.
ZachF
Active Member
Elon’s superpower? Avoiding this:
Andrej talks about it too.
Andrej talks about it too.
Gray Man
∇x E = -∂B(t)/∂t
Down 5% yesterday? Looks like I'm going to buy some more shares this morning!
I'm very torn on the FED right now. I've been assuming they would finally wake up and chill out a bit. The actual notes were dovish, so I don't know if Powell is talking a tough talk to keep the markets more or less flat to lightly down, or if he really does care more about the FED's tough reputation vs results. The notion that they can just increase liquidity if they go to far was not comforting and reeks of being out of touch. Reversing course after going to far means you have destroyed some lives in the process. Going back to QE doesn't fix that.
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