Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DarthPierce]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1588154105511526402

Elizabeth Holmes? Marry Barra? Trevor Milton?





So many good choices



Elizabeth Holmes? Marry Barra? Trevor Milton?




So many good choices

 

[WattsHappening]

MMs decided to go out for breakfast and coffee; MMD delayed by an hour today.

 

[DarthPierce]

Ok. Every time I try to edit that it gets more messy. Something weird with that reply.

 

[SOULPEDL]

... Canada’s government said in a Wednesday statement that it’s ordering three Chinese firms to divest from the trio [three junior lithium explorers] due to strengthened guidelines to protect the country’s minerals wealth. ... updated guidelines from Canada’s government, released Friday, which make it harder for foreign state-owned companies to pursue deals and investments that target critical minerals including lithium, nickel, copper and uranium

(From Yahoo News - Latest News & Headlines)

We need to stop other countries from exploiting our resources! Oh wait... (cheap labor).
I wonder where this (trade) goes in the future, seems a downhill slope but maybe necessary.

 

[Unpilot]

I figured out how to solve my tax "problem"

 

[Gigapress]

I'm guessing we'll end Q4 more like:

230K Shanghai
135K Fremont
45K Berlin + Austin

230 + 135 + 45 = 410K deliveries for Q4, which would be a 41% YoY increase in deliveries, with about 1,317,000 cars delivered for 2022.

Now, production numbers would be slightly higher of course, but I'm modeling for what impacts the stock price. My hunch is total production for Q4 will end up around the 440K mark.

Again, this is just what I'm expecting, but I do tend more to the conservative side than most here on TMC. My decades in manufacturing engineering has made me under-expect when it comes to volume production ramp increases. Especially for products as complex as cars.

These predictions imply zero overall production ramp from where we were in October. In the last ten years Tesla has never had zero QoQ global vehicle production growth, except for government lockdowns, and in Q4 we should be entering the steep portion of the S-curve for Berlin and Texas.

Shanghai:

230k / 3 = 77k/month predicted​

​

August production and deliveries were 77k, even with some line shutdown time for the upgrade and with less than full speed after.​

​

September was 82k, in a 30-day month. 82k * 3 = 246k quarterly.​

​

Unless there’s a lockdown or something Shanghai is going to deliver substantially more than 230k in Q4.​

Fremont:

In Q3, Shanghai did 197.4k out of 365.9k total Q3 global production, leaving 168.5k that came from Fremont/Austin/Berlin, split roughly as:​

F: 140-145k​

A: 10k​

B: 15k​

135k predicted is 5k or 10k less than Q3 actual.​

Berlin and Austin:

​

45k / 13 weeks = 3.5k/week predicted​

By year end they’re both expected to be at about 5k per week each or 10k combined, according to Tesla management’s unwaveringly consistent guidance since Q4 last year which was reaffirmed on the Q3 call.​

Berlin was already at 2k per week run rate in the first week of October. That may have been a burst rate, but they also don’t even have a third shift yet which is supposedly coming in December as we last heard publicly.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576287306645790720

Austin went from 10k cumulative as of Sep 17th to 20k on Nov 1st, 45 days later.​

10k / 45 days * 7 days/wk = 1.6k / wk average​

Austin’s ramp probably is exponential, not linear, so the current weekly run rate is almost certainly more than 1.6k. In fact, on the Q3 call two weeks ago, Elon said:​

​

On the production ramp, Giga Berlin achieved another milestone of 2,000 cars made in a week with very good quality and is ramping rapidly. Giga Austin or Giga Texas should reach this milestone very soon. And in fact, just yesterday, we extrapolated yesterday's hold rate, it would be 2,000.

​

2k + 2k = At least 4k combined for B&A already as of late October.​

​

4k * 13 = 52k in Q4 if no more growth​

Total:

246 + 142 + 52 = 440k​

 

[WattsHappening]

When in doubt, zoom out. Nice perspective from Dillon Loomis of Electrified.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1588181464382074880

 

[Singuy]

Very informative

 

[Artful Dodger]

on that note, do you happen to know if ‘victim mentality’ contains a phase or step where all the person does is bitch about what an idiot elon is? and how if it were them, they’d do so much better?

or is that a different syndrome?

just trying to inventory all this - thanks!

r/facepalm - Reddit​

 

[elasalle]

Regarding deliveries for 4Q

Don't count delivery chicken's just in case the covid egg hatches ...

 

[wipster]

We need to stop other countries from exploiting our resources! Oh wait... (cheap labor).
I wonder where this (trade) goes in the future, seems a downhill slope but maybe necessary.

To Mars! And maybe Europa, especially the CyberTruck as it can be a boat (for a while at least).

 

[traxila]

This came today out of the blue. I mean, who am I to argue?

 

[Krugerrand]

I mean, Shanghai should be producing 80k+ in addition to which there's what, a 15-20k tailwind of undelivered cars from last month? There was a holiday week but they said they were going to be working through the holiday week.

I saw someone say here that they weren't at full capacity over the holiday, which is fine. With production rumored to be 20500 per week (supported by last month's production numbers, I believe) half-production for that week should put them over 70k produced this month. And sure, there are some cars in parking lots, but I doubt all of the 15k+ overflow from last month is parked -- there's been a steady stream of outbound ships, and how big are we thinking those parking lots actually are?

Bottom line, I don't think the 70k number is a disaster, but it's less than I had expected and definitely, for me, was underwhelming.

If you told me that cars on ships don't count as wholesale sales then that would change my thinking... and I'm still willing to be surprised by the October Shanghai production numbers. But that's where I am.

Informative post, thus the rating. I see, though, that to get to disappointment you had to make a number of guesses and assumptions. ‍but I like to save my disappointment for something concrete then I like to figure out where *I* went wrong so that I can avoid further disappointments. The biggest way to reduce disappointment is to not have expectations that are out of your control.

So many people here who want to try and game life. Let it come to you and live in the moment.

 

[AudubonB]

I am a man of my word. I still have a horrible taste in my mouth....

View attachment 870448

As others have noted, it’s not possible to determine what kind of dog you’re consuming BUT…
It’s no mystery whatsoever as to why you reported a lingering foul taste: French’s Yellow Mustard

 

[ThisStockGood]

An interesting perspective on the upcoming Optimus:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1588178494819045376

 

[thesmokingman]

^^Good stuff, the possibilities are starting to sink in... Now when will they realize that FSD led to robots and general AI?

 

[Opus BC fan]

This came today out of the blue. I mean, who am I to argue?

View attachment 870636

Wow I never considered this TSLA metric before...

 

[insaneoctane]

Did you realize the Tesla numbers are for one quarter while the Apple numbers are for a whole year?

Yes. I originally typed "double" and quickly edited to "half" upon realization that Apple's was for the whole year. I believe that the post everyone has seen is accurate.

 

[Rarity]

... Canada’s government said in a Wednesday statement that it’s ordering three Chinese firms to divest from [three junior lithium explorers] due to strengthened guidelines to protect the country’s minerals wealth. ... updated guidelines from Canada’s government, released Friday, which make it harder for foreign state-owned companies to pursue deals and investments that target critical minerals including lithium, nickel, copper and uranium

(From Canada orders three Chinese firms to divest from country's lithium miners - BNN Bloomberg)

Consequential, even though these are small investments.

I wonder if Australia will implement a similar approach.

Indonesia is still accepting China SOE investment as far as I can tell.

 

[JRP3]

When in doubt, zoom out. Nice perspective from Dillon Loomis of Electrified.

So we can look forward to a few years of nothingness.