The two key variables to consider are that Tesla is now in the S&P 500 and a much larger company with far fewer people/institutions capable of bagholding for the rest of us.
Personally, I'd be surprised if its parabolic or exponential anymore.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The two key variables to consider are that Tesla is now in the S&P 500 and a much larger company with far fewer people/institutions capable of bagholding for the rest of us.
Personally, I'd be surprised if its parabolic or exponential anymore.
I'm ok with another period of consolidation as long as it's back at 450 or 500 during that time.
larmor
Active Member
And investment grade. And two new factories, and set to release and produce two new product lines...
CLK350
Member
Any TMC'ers attending? Maybe we could have a meeting place somewhere and uh a hand signal or something
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
The second consolidation length (5.7 years) was more than double the first (2.4 years), if we extrapolate that would imply 11+ years of flat-line ahead.
Even simple averaging puts us 4 years out.
Personally I am expecting us to trade under the ATH of $415 for another two to three years, until sometime in late 2024 or 2025 where the fundamentals should be too strong to allow any further compression.
I think the recession might eat up 2023 and keep macros down for a year or so, which could compress TSLA's PE to around 60 or so by EoY 2023. If we see net income of about $20 billion for 2023 our SP would be in the high $300's with a PE of 60. A recession could keep fund managers from investing into TSLA for some time despite our new investment grade ratings, and we need new volume to truly overwhelm the MM's who currently dictate our SP.
Then as the market (possibly) turns around we'd likely push up around our ATH of $415 in 2024 again, but I feel the MM's would do everything they could to keep us suppressed, compressing the PE even further even while we post record quarter after quarter. If we see net income of around $30 billion for 2024 and they push the PE down to 50 then the EoY SP for 2024 would be around $415, our ATH.
2025 is the year I think TSLA will simply be too huge a financial beast to allow any further compression. My model predicts net income of about $44 billion for 2025. If the company keeps growing revenues at that pace then the PE would be hard pressed to stay below 50, but even if it gets pushed down to 40 we'd still see the SP go over the ATH to about $466. If the PE stays around 50 we'd be pushing the upper $500's and close to $600 per share.
2026 onward gets ridiculously impressive from a valuation point of view.
Conversely, if our PE gets pushed below 40 and maintained on a constant downward trajectory then we could be kept under $500/share for many, many years possibly. I don't think that's likely, but it is possible.
Of course this is all just my theorycrafting and much of it is based on my forward looking TSLA model, which is admittedly amateurish. However, my model's fundamental predictions are roughly in line with people like the Accountant's and Rob Mauer's, the largest differences are my PE expectations for the next few years. If the market goes bull rally and PE's rise in a big way then TSLA should take off like a Falcon 9 rocket. I'm just not expecting it too for a few years yet.
So yeah, I sort of agree with your take that "we can look forward to a few years of nothingness". Followed by a few years of Awesomeness. IMHO.
Last edited:
Personally I am expecting us to trade under the ATH of $415 for another two to three years, until sometime in late 2024 or 2025 where the fundamentals should be too strong to allow any further compression.
I think the recession might eat up 2023 and keep macros down for a year or so, which could compress TSLA's PE to around 60 or so by EoY 2023. If we see net income of about $20 billion for 2023 our SP would be in the high $300's with a PE of 60. A recession could keep fund managers from investing into TSLA for some time despite our new investment grade ratings, and we need new volume to truly overwhelm the MM's who currently dictate our SP.
Then as the market (possibly) turns around we'd likely push up around our ATH of $415 in 2024 again, but I feel the MM's would do everything they could to keep us suppressed, compressing the PE even further even while we post record quarter after quarter. If we see net income of around $30 billion for 2024 and they push the PE down to 50 then the EoY SP for 2024 would be around $415, our ATH.
2025 is the year I think TSLA will simply be too huge a financial beast to allow any further compression. My model predicts net income of about $44 billion for 2025. If the company keeps growing revenues at that pace then the PE would be hard pressed to stay below 50, but even if it gets pushed down to 40 we'd still see the SP go over the ATH to about $466. If the PE stays around 50 we'd be pushing the upper $500's and close to $600 per share.
2026 onward gets ridiculously impressive from a valuation point of view.
Of course this is all just my theorycrafting and much of it is based on my forward looking TSLA model, which is admittedly amateurish. However, my model's fundamental predictions are roughly in line with people like the Accountant's and Rob Mauer's, the largest differences are my PE expectations for the next few years. If the market goes bull rally and PE's rise in a big way then TSLA should take off like a Falcon 9 rocket. I'm just not expecting it too for a few years yet.
So yeah, I sort of agree with your take that "we can look forward to a few years of nothingness". Followed by a few years of Awesomeness. IMHO.
Just a heads up our Trail P/E ratio is 66.68 as of typing this and will further compress with Q4 on deliveries over 400k..... To around 50 or less at this stock price.
Our forward P/E for 2023 is in the 30's right now.....
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I realized a long time ago that we don't have enough visibility into the timing and method of volume production ramp increases to not be blind-sided by under or over performance. Sometimes the increases will come suddenly and without warning simply because everything lined up, there was no significant downtime and they made a couple of line improvements that were under the radar. Other times we will expect a ramp increase due to rumors or news of production upgrades, but they won't materialize when we expect because production is only as strong as the weakest link.
The most significant metric in this is the burst speed, because that tells us, better than anything else, what the line efficiency is when everything is flowing perfectly (and that's why Elon often focusses on burst speed). That, along with the price and availability of raw materials, is what will most determine the future value of the auto segment of Tesla. Elon's Tweets are not a significant factor.
There are many other factors which are largely outside Tesla's ability to control, and quarter to quarter variations in uptime, parts availability, etc are largely unguessable, so I focus on what we know and that is that Elon and team are intensely focused on always increasing manufacturing efficiency and increasing supply chain reliability. It's a gargantuan job and legacy auto takes the easy way out by sticking with proven concepts. Tesla is always thinking of ways to better it, even if unproven. And that's how you become the best and is largely what convinces me that the rest are literally incapable of ever catching up. You cannot become the best if your default practice is to stick with the tried and proven methods and place a lower value on unproven but promising new ways of doing things. Rapid implementation of unproven changes reduces efficiency in the short term but is the only way to gain a significant long-term advantage that is unassailable.
If a TMC member wins that 1.5B powerball, that could kick off a nice rally (I think after going lump sum and covering taxes it's ~450M cash or ~2 million shares of TSLA)
I volunteer as tribute.
I volunteer as tribute.
Bonus, if TSLA SP goes down, you can claim losses on your lottery gains
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Well, current stock prices already takes us back to December of 2020. That means we already have 2 years of "nothingness" under our belts. So, while I agree that Wall Street loves cyclic valuations to maximize their profits, I don't think we have "a few years of nothingness to look forward to". That's just ridiculous when you look at how fast Tesla is growing both production and (especially) profits.So yeah, I sort of agree with your take that "we can look forward to a few years of nothingness". Followed by a few years of Awesomeness. IMHO.
Even though I think these kinds of things are largely unpredictable with any certainty, I think it's much more likely that Tesla starts rising from here at some point before the overall markets recover. Another way to say this is I think Tesla has a good risk/reward looking over the next year and it would be utterly foolish to not be invested simply because it might not appreciate much. Because it might triple or more before your "few years of nothingness" comes to pass.
When things are bleak, yeah, everything looks bleak. But what I know first-hand is how quickly things can change from that state with no advance warning. The stronger the recession, the bigger the opportunity for Tesla to demonstrate how superior their business model is. That's kind of how I see this playing out. And, yeah, it won't necessarily start now or even in three months, but "several years" is unrealistically pessimistic. That scenario falls on the last 10% of the bell curve of probability.
If I thought TSLA would be flat for 4-10 years I'm not sure I'd be holding it. 
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
450K is also my "base case" Q4 estimate w. similar totals (I had 24K from Austin, 30K from Berlin). I think the "best case" scenario should include at least these 3 possible upsides:
- Giga Shanghai sent 300 workers to Fremont to help with production rate (Imma call it +3% or another ~5K upside at Fremont)
- Giga Berlin is staffing up for 3 shifts in Q4, with EoQ prod. tgt of 5K/wk vs 2.5K entering Q4 (call it +12K from Berlin)
- Giga Texas is ramping continuously (tgt 5K/wk). If they just continue their rate of prod. increase, then they should exit Q4 at ~3K/wk (Imma call it +6K from Austin)
#Predict
P.S. there is also a "known unknowns" scenario: That is, did REUTERS get the Shanghai avg prod. rate correct at 20.5K/wk or is that 22K/wk less planned Oct. downtime? That's a 19.5K difference in a 13 wk quarter, almost precisely the diff. we see for Giga Shanghai in October (pending final CPCA prod numbers).
If avg prod. of 22K/wk is achieved for the 9 remaining weeks in Q4, that's another 14K, and then we're looking at a possible path to 495K (Force Majeure excepted, of course).
P.P.S. Tesla exits 2022 at an annualized run-rate between 1.8M and 2.0M cars/year.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Bonus, if TSLA SP goes down, you can claim losses on your lottery gains
You can't claim losses on TSLA unless you sell it at a lower price than you purchased it. And, even if you had under-water shares, why would you sell them at a low price? Lottery taxes are always taken directly out of your winnings, so there would be no need to sell.
P.S. There is not a lottery anywhere that is a good investment, they all have negative returns. Purely for paid entertainment and only if you find that kind of thing entertaining. My dad did, but he was never really an investor. I have trouble getting any "kick" out of it.
Last edited:
Oh absolutely, TSLA at it's current price is a huge opportunity, and the risk vs reward over the long term is outstanding. My "a few years of flat trading" post above is my overly pessimistic outlook, my "worst case" so to speak. A large part of me expecting my worst case to play out is simply lowering my expectations purposefully. The potential upside for TSLA over the next few years is massive. My pessimism stems more from the market environment itself than Tesla.
There is a reason I am all in on TSLA and holding like a starving bear on a salmon in the winter.
OK, why did Options volume go 2X today in 2 hours, but the distribution changed by only ~1%. These graphs are not the same, look at the left column though.
11:14 AM (And what I saw just 2 hrs hour ago)
1:23PM
Probability this data is correct <1% IMO.
Queue in the Dodger?
(Edit to save space.)
11:14 AM (And what I saw just 2 hrs hour ago)
1:23PM
Probability this data is correct <1% IMO.
Queue in the Dodger?
(Edit to save space.)
If this is their "bright spot" things are looking pretty dim in Fordland...
driveteslacanada.ca
Ford's EV sales continue to be lone bright spot in October sales report
Ford has reported its October 2022 sales and once again the Detroit-based automaker has seen a drop in its overall vehicle sales of 10% year-over-year (YoY). That is basically the same result when compared to [...]
driveteslacanada.ca
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
