Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

It simply shows your rigidity in thought compared to his. He’s willing to be open to other possibilities and change his mind, you’re not.

I don't change my mind when my first thought was correct.

 

[ZeApelido]

One up day in the stock and all is forgiven.

One 50% up day.

 

[jschwefel]

These are trying times indeed. However, most of us have been here before and while Elon is gonna be Elon, I am still really thankful for him. Sure...some of his tweets and antics are cringeworthy, but so are most of the things I read from people who should know better. Sometimes you have to fight fire with fire, and with that in mind, I think I understand where Elon may be coming from.

My goal at the moment is to stay solvent longer than the market can stay irrational. I've been invested in TSLA since 2013, so I have no complaints. However I did lean into more short puts than I should have, and that's amplifying the pain associated with the low stock price. The election uncertainties will soon pass and here's hoping that will provide some stability. Best of luck to you all! You have helped provide some sanity in the craziness.

 

[AudubonB]

MOD:
That's absolutely ENOUGH about politics, Twitter, Mr Musk and the world as each of us sees it. Productive entries long since have ended, at best what is being posted is re-hashing same, planting one's own flag, and other non-useful inputs. At worst...is much, much worse.

Endit.

 

[Todd Burch]

With the new Shanghai monthly numbers release from moneyball where are we sitting on their production rate?

What was the number? Do share.

 

[StealthP3D]

SO basically .. thanks for your advice ... but I COULD NOT care less what you have to say.

One correction: Simple logic informs me that you would have cared less about the opposing viewpoint had you had not felt the desire to reference it at all.

Thus, you demonstrated that you could have cared less.

 

[BornToFly]

I am encouraged because the broad market is way up again. Dow up another 400.

What do you think happens to TSLA if the market gives up its gains...?

I would be more encouraged if the NASDAQ had been down 10% the last two days.

 

[jw934]

Balance this against the market's long-standing historical upward reaction post mid-term elections.

I read another comment in regards to "this historical trend":

- In the past nineteen midterm election years since 1946, stocks have advanced from late October through year-end every single time except 2018.
- 2018 happens to be the ONLY year with mid-term that featured rate hikes and quantitative tightening - before this year.
- And chart below shows that in 2018, market dropped post mid-term election.

Source: ZEN SECOND LIFE

 

[Kutu]

What do you think happens to TSLA if the market gives up its gains...?

I would be more encouraged if the NASDAQ had been down 10% the last two days.

I am certainly no expert, but the fact the NASDAQ is up is telling me that this is pure market manipulationby MM's, hedge funds, shorts, etc. They are mainly hurting the not so wealthy. 401Ks, IRA's and the small investor are the ones losing out.

 

[MP3Mike]

the fact that I got in early and put a lot of money into a company that could have easily failed gives me the right to say and do what I want.

What money have you put into Tesla? Did you buy a bunch of their bonds? (Buying stock, unless at IPO, doesn't put any money in to the company...)

 

[EverettRuess]

What do you think happens to TSLA if the market gives up its gains...?

I would be more encouraged if the NASDAQ had been down 10% the last two days.

If the market gives up it gains then we can blame Tesla being down because of the macros. We know that is not the case but it will make you feel better.

 

[WADan]

IMO I think Elon has done pretty well keeping Tesla alive through this political climate of polarization.

The most important thing to understand is that Covid was politicalized by both sides, one side saying it's no big deal while the other wanted to kill a mosquito with a cannon. Tesla being a scrap company barely making a profit was caught in the cross hairs. The Democrats had absolutely zero problem allowing businesses to die due to Covid as no president gets elected(or re-elected) if the economy tanks.

What would you do if your Tesla during these vulnerable times will die if no one speaks up? Or for your mission, are you willing to break off and join the other side which was way more accommodating? This is what Elon did for his shareholders. The reason why Tsla isn't zero is because Elon went nuclear on his own party when his own party did NOT support the mission just to play politics. This is why WE invested in Tesla because we knew the government of either side are not interested in fixing climate change, and are just using it as a talking point for political gains. Elon doesn't care about this and he will lay with whoever you think is the devil to get his mission accomplished.

I disagree with your view of “kill a mosquito with a cannon”. The world would be in a serious abyss without the miraculous vaccines!
Science and scientists came to rescue humans just at the right time. Without the discovery of RNA and mRNA, vaccine would take years longer to make.
And, yes, we are facing economic consequences of some pandemic rescue spendings, but I would argue that without it the economy could have been in the recession at the height of the pandemic (when all the business were closing and people were dying in the thousands).

 

[Richard007]

A terrific time to be adding. Ignore the noise. Find your courage.

 

[Singuy]

I disagree with your view of “kill a mosquito with a cannon”. The world would be in a serious abyss without the miraculous vaccines!
Science and scientists came to rescue humans just at the right time. Without the discovery of RNA and mRNA, vaccine would take years longer to make.
And, yes, we are facing economic consequences of some pandemic rescue spendings, but I would argue that without it the economy could have been in the recession at the height of the pandemic (when all the business were closing and people were dying in the thousands).

FL allowed businesses to open and disney world was open a year before Disneyland. I don't see this abyss you are referring to...unless you mean skyrocketing home prices due to people fleeing into our state.

 

[EVNow]

I don't change my mind when my first thought was correct.

More importantly, what matters is whether someone changes the mind when new evidence comes in. In this case I don’t see any new evidence that came in - so, no reason to change.

 

[EVNow]

What do you think happens to TSLA if the market gives up its gains...?

I would be more encouraged if the NASDAQ had been down 10% the last two days.

Right. Currently the sentiment on Tesla is negative and until that changes, we will see new lows if Nasdaq goes down.

 

[2daMoon]

A friend whom I introduced to Tesla texted about TSLA "hitting the dirt" today. I responded with the usual observation on all the reasons the company is still magnificent.

Minutes later the next text said, "bought 5 more"

I think he's getting the hang of HODLing.

 

[ElectricIAC]

A friend whom I introduced to Tesla texted about TSLA "hitting the dirt" today. I responded with the usual observation on all the reasons the company is still magnificent.

Minutes later the next text said, "bought 5 more"

I think he's getting the hang of HODLing.

Just five? Rookie numbers.

 

[Sancho]

I hate to change the subject here/s, but there is interesting data in CarSalesBase about Tesla sales development. I chose the Europe data:

Tesla Europe Sales Figures

Car sales statistics for the Tesla in the European automotive market. We have broken out sales data by month and year and included interactive charts.

carsalesbase.com

Perhaps this is off-topic because it relates to actual Tesla results in Europe. I apologize for not mentioning politics or social media acquisitions./s
MODS: Please accept my apologies if this is the incorrect thread./s

It is responsible to note that in present global political/economic/climactic developments there is extreme risk to anything speculative. Despite that, as in other such volatile times, investing in conservative value has been wise. Those conservative values are ones that have durable competitive advantage combined with high capital efficiency and manufacturing excellence.

Direct parallels with other times of great stress are fraught, but even imrprobables, like Chrysler, succeeded then due to modern products and efficient production that made 1930's Plymouths a great deal, as did General Motors. Both were innovators then, while the giant of the time, Ford, stagnated. BCG has a very good summery for he time:

How Automakers Accelerated Out of the Great Depression

U.S. automakers provide a striking example of the many companies that outperformed their peers during the Great Depression—and beyond.

www.bcg.com

A quick review shows that those two were then much like Tesla is today, although both grew with acquisitions, the product and production innovations made both well positioned for rapid growth.
The lessons of those two are also relevant in that both stagnated when their success made them forget the basics. Out of World War II they both let the booming markets deceive them into valuing form over function.

In Tesla we have a very long time before such a thing could happen, not least because the current world is beginning to understand the limits of hydrocarbon-based power.

Distracting ourselves from basics while attending to every whim and whimsy makes us forget what Tesla is all about. Nothing else is relevant.

When we preoccupy ourselves with everything else we are becoming dilettantes, preoccupied with personality rather than content. Of course Mr. Musk is odd. Were Edison, Carver, Einstein, Franklin, Boeing, Ford, Daimler, Porsche, Honda...NOT odd? Of course they were! Compared with some of them Elon is well balanced and mild.

It is long past time to chill! Pay attention to facts, not emotions. @The Accountant , @Gigapress and several others are doing a good job of staying on the subject. Our long-suffering Mods are at risk of burnout if we do not shape up. We all should do better, I explicitly include myself. When we are tempted to concern ourselves with birdlike issues, just remember the 'virtuous kind heroes'/s of the past such as Bill Boeing and Henry Ford. Then compare with Elon Musk, who has actually accomplished more than any of those others, as incredible as it seems.

Your reference to Thomas Edison brings to mind that we have a photo in our house of my wife’s uncle with Edison. We cherish that photo. Our ancestor with Edison! The greatest entrepreneurial engineer ever.

Until Musk.

It’s mindblowing that we are now living in a time with someone even greater than Edison.

It’s even more mindblowing that most people don’t appreciate Musk’s talents and accomplishments.

But there are millions of us who do. We on this forum are not the only ones, and many more will join us.

 

[AndrewZ]

I don't know how the macros won't drive down further, we've never had a market bottom while in the process of raising rates and we probably haven't even started seeing the many lagged impacts from the rate hikes.

Interest rates are going up further, not sure to what point but they're not done yet, and then the Fed will pause and wait for the lagging data to roll in and ensure inflation is actually defeated and the labour market has loosened up thus reducing the risk of a wage-price spiral.