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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Yea, one month for a M3P. Try it out yourself... Pricing needs to come down to balance things out cuz these Y's at 70K are not gonna fly off the line in the current atmosphere.
Tesla just needs enough orders to fill up Q4 and then the EV tax credit kicks for Q1 which will drive a ton of demand.

I would have to imagine though that S/X production is high enough now and thus margins are back up enough on the S/X for them to drop the prices materially. Simply not a huge market for the pricing on those. But they have China and Europe to fullfill first so they likely won't drop prices for another 1-2 quarters.
 
I was just writing something similar and you beat me to it. We know the M3P likely won't qualify for credits due to the MSRP cap, but how many average car buyers know that? I imagine a lot of people will be willing to wait until January 1 to see how things shake out. $7,500 is a big potential incentive for delaying a purchase by 51 days.
#Ninja'ed the Willow!
 
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As I wrote yesterday (and have been saying here for years), the big event is when Elon excercises the ~300M shares he has earned as stock options for successfully achieving all 12 tranches of his 2018 CEO comp. plan. (BTW, that plan is why were're rich).

Will Elon have to sell ~50% of those shares at the time of exercise to pay the income taxes? That's the "overhang", not some puny little 20M shares to fund twitter, which shortzes eagerly pounced on to create a 20% drop in SP. What do you think 150M shares will gather from short sellers? 750M shares at 5:1 if they continue piling on like they did last week.

No, the answer is to be found in the Judo Dojo. I think Elon has a strategy, and I think he's wise to keep it close to his vest until its done. That's my opinion. I will wait to see what happens, and I'm patient.

Cheers!
you mean this one? Elon has until january 20th, 2028 another 5 years or so
303,960,330 shares (gulp)(or _not_ gulp more likely)
if i recall the last time, Elon only seemed to sell enough to pay around, what was it? $11 - $12 Billion in taxes.......
1668108567527.png
 
Sure brah.....keep ignoring reality

Oh I'm sorry, I forgot another massive underperformance day is all part of Elon's 5-D chess. I'm sure if the forms come out tomorrow night showing Elon continuing to dump you'll have some quick wit remark as to why it's not an issue.

I sure hope somebody has been listened to my "drums" for the past few months because it's clear as night what was going to happen. Even when there is actual positive data for Tesla, Elon make sure to torpedo the stock regardless. Anyone listening to my "drum drums" probably would have saved themselves a margin call or two.
I always read your posts or try to. It's the only way to counter this echo chamber.
 
And non Performance model Y is Dec to March 2023 for Seattle delivery.

My spidey sense says that production is ramping up!
It sure is amazing Tesla is getting the EV credit back since with all this new production, Tesla surely would have had to drop prices so much that margins would go negative........or at least that what the media sure is trying to convince everyone the situation is 😅
 
Sure brah.....keep ignoring reality

Oh I'm sorry, I forgot another massive underperformance day is all part of Elon's 5-D chess. I'm sure if the forms come out tomorrow night showing Elon continuing to dump you'll have some quick wit remark as to why it's not an issue.

I sure hope somebody has been listened to my "drums" for the past few months because it's clear as night what was going to happen. Even when there is actual positive data for Tesla, Elon make sure to torpedo the stock regardless. Anyone listening to my "drum drums" probably would have saved themselves a margin call or two.

In hindsight, after looking at mutual funds performance (mainly Utilities Funds and VHYAX), I'm far too glassy-eyed towards TSLA. Tesla itself is doing great for the mission and continues to astound. Though, a pullback made sense after such a run-up. I thought continued growth would continue up until a lot of macro headwinds this year (Ukraine, Inflation, Twitter, etc.)...unfortunately, that was misplaced greed on my part.

Thanks for being on this forum and calling things out as an independent observer and poster.
 
My best guess is many people are holding out for 1/1/23 for their tax credits.
Since GM and TSLA are the only ones not currently participating in the current ev tax credits.

Tesla is the one most being affected by potential holdouts, since GM isn't really making tons of ev's
Hopefully (sort of) it is a sign that the rate rises are starting to bite the average consumer. If true it should mean that we are nearing the end of the rate rise cycle. We are not going to see proper growth again until we know inflation and unemployment are within the targets of the reserve bank.
 
Although Fred seems to have jumped on the FUD train, this sounds disappointing if true. And I suspect he meant “en masse”, not “in mass”.

 
In hindsight, after looking at mutual funds performance (mainly Utilities Funds and VHYAX), I'm far too glassy-eyed towards TSLA. Tesla itself is doing great for the mission and continues to astound. Though, a pullback made sense after such a run-up. I thought continued growth would continue up until a lot of macro headwinds this year (Ukraine, Inflation, Twitter, etc.)...unfortunately, that was misplaced greed on my part.

Thanks for being on this forum and calling things out as an independent observer and poster.
I actually don't think you were viewing TSLA as an investment with far too glassy-eyed views at all. Yes this was a tough year for Tesla as a company to navigate through but they successfully navigated through them and are assured to at least do 50% revenue growth for the year. That's amazing.......and when the company's execution has shown through all the noise, the stock has held up very well. Would it be positive for the year? No. The PE still would have compressed some.

But each time the stock seems to trade on the results of the actual company, there's Elon to stomp the living crap out of it. Of all the things that could be headwinds for a stock whether they're company specific or macro related, what you don't expect is that the main driving headwind to be the CEO.

And again, I'm not talking about the fact that he has sold shares. It's that he's doing it in the most incredibly painful way I've ever seen before. There's not even close. Every one of his sells, because of the way he's gone about the whole thing, even in Nov 2021, has been telegraphed and allowed Wall St to forced him to unload more and more shares for the same $ amount needed It's the stupidest method of selling I've ever seen.
By my math, TSLA has underperformed ~ 23-24% relative to macros in the last 5 days.


Shocking right?
 
I am not. As I explained there is a difference between the normal, constant background FUD and the Twitter specific FUD.

One more reply to a longtime Tesla supporter who fought FUD on Seeking Alpha for years:

I've seen articles claiming that Elon eliminated all identity verification on Twitter (which is false), that he opened Twitter to hate speech (false), that he is a Nazi sympathizer, etc. etc. etc.

If you still think this Twitter-specific FUD is "propelled by Elon's words and actions, nothing more," then your eyes are not open.
 
Although Fred seems to have jumped on the FUD train, this sounds disappointing if true. And I suspect he meant “en masse”, not “in mass”.

It makes sense for Tesla Energy to be focused on the engineering and production of solar panels/roofs and their storage batteries. The installation and maintenance of these products may be handled more efficiently by local firms/contractors.
 
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Although Fred seems to have jumped on the FUD train, this sounds disappointing if true. And I suspect he meant “en masse”, not “in mass”.

I think Tesla should focus on selling high margin solar roof and forget solar panels. The amount of headache for the non existence margins are not worth it.