Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Hey everyone! I just noticed that the ...

Um, yeah, I'm not gonna say it.

 

[ABCTG]

A few quick points:

• Bezos sells a billion dollars of Amazon stock every year to fund Blue Origin (his rocket company). No one says anything about it.
• Elon said yesterday that users keep increasing. So even though his competitors (sorry, I mean news media) say it's a disaster, the numbers seem to say otherwise.

One aspect of Bezos selling a $billion of stock every year is that he actually did pre-announce that he would be doing that.


I would be fine with Elon announcing that he will sell $x amount of stock every year to invest in things he feels are important.

Actually with the urgency he has with us being a multiplanetry species, amid other things, I'm surprised he hasn't already.

To me, the logic says that he will not be satisfied to just sit on his $100+billion in $TSLA

 

[Cosmacelf]

Honestly, what took them so long: Opening the North American Charging Standard

Edit: This would have made more sense to do five years ago ... why now?

 

[SOULPEDL]

For the visual people

It's all relative.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Hey everyone! I just noticed that the ...

Um, yeah, I'm not gonna say it.

Yes, you are correct. We still don't have a final price on CT..

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hey everyone! I just noticed that the ...

Um, yeah, I'm not gonna say it.

MM's must have left early for Veteran's day and left the interns in charge

 

[thesmokingman]

For the visual people

View attachment 873589

It's all relative.

Now we only meed that angle of attack for the next month, k? Make it so #2...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Meanwhile $GM up 4.5% on promises of 69 new EV's by 2025.

 

[Speedr117]

There are some good insights in this post, but there also are two staggeringly deceptive problems: a logical fallacy that then begets an incorrect conclusion.

Cherry picking to support one’s position is a terrible logical fallacy. It is not appropriate to use Qualcomm and Microsoft as examples of the financial press’s lack of insight (and even here am giving the benefit of the doubt, because I don’t recall the press even close to predominantly scoffing MSFT as being able to topple IBM. But that doesn’t matter).

Rather, those two have to be regarded as the exception, not the rule. You are a financial reporter at the Emerging Companies desk. You are presented, IF you are lucky, with a dozen new companies’ stories. Each week, every week. If you’re not lucky, it could be many score of such. Every single one of those companies is going to be the Best Thing Ever. Will reinvent computing. Telecommunications. Medicine. Air travel. Nose picking.

You‘re not even jaded. You even studied and worked in that sector. But you know what? You know something very, very important: you know, with absolute year-in, year-out actuarial certainty, that to whatever statistical precision you can create, every single one of those companies will fail.

So:
No collusion with the established companies - the Eastman Kodaks, the Xeroxes, the Pan Americans, the AIGs - is necessary. You do your job with sincerity - if you are good, then you do faithfully and optimistically report NewCo’s possibilities, but at the same time you demonstrate the hurdles it has to overcome in order to challenge successfully the IBMs that prevail at the time.

I would argue that there is a difference between some new, unproven startup (thousands of those) and a few that keep building size and business, and yet they are scoffed at and assumed they'll fail once the big, entrenched competitors turn their focus. Amazon was the big one, but so was Netflix, and even Apple (which has ALWAYS had a low P/E when everyone else was higher).

The main takeaways for me, ones that I have already learned the hard way, were two fold:

• Time is the little investor's superpower. No need to make numbers every quarter or year by jumping in and out of positions.
• Trust what you see and believe, especially if they are growing against old, established businesses.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Meanwhile $GM up 4.5% on promises of 69 new EV's by 2025.

Which they will have 6.08 different variants on each vehicle for a total of 420 options

 

[StealthP3D]

This appears to have been put up the flagpole in order to argue against the changes in the legislation (this is a legislative battle). Whether it is true or not does not matter. People are now alerted that such a thing is possible, even if Tesla has no plans to do so. And of course, plans can change.

No matter if the legislation changes in the way that was outlined, Tesla is in a good position to take advantage. It is a bit annoying that Tesla is the prop that was used, but I think we need to get used to this kind of thing happening.

Wait a minute.

You are arguing that changes to a bill that are added to accommodate foreign car manufacturers by phasing in the introduction of rules that favor (and were designed to favor) American manufacturers, would be viewed less favorably if such changes also favored American manufacturers?

That seems mostly non-sensical and highly unlikely to be the motivation of the story that Elon called false.

 

[redan]

Honestly, what took them so long: Opening the North American Charging Standard

Edit: This would have made more sense to do five years ago ... why now?

And the corresponding tweet, along with picture:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591131214328778752

 

[ElectricIAC]

Meanwhile $GM up 4.5% on promises of 69 new EV's by 2025.

Technically if they all have different badges they’re technically different models per the big 3.

 

[NicoV]

The car terminal in the port of Zeebrugge is full of parked cars according to the local TV news:

Autoterminals in havens staan tjokvol: "Geen capaciteit om ze naar de eindconsument te brengen"

www.vrt.be

Apparently there are not enough trucks and/or truck drivers to distribute these cars over Europe.
There were quite a few Teslas in the picture, there was no mention how much this impacted Tesla.

 

[Dutchie]

Elon is increasing availability of existing shares, that is true. That is why the price drops. However, if enough buyers see opportunity and buy those shares, the price will recover.

Since new shares are not becoming available, you still own the same percentage of Tesla as before, therefore there is no dilution.

I don’t see TSLA’s performance Thursday as “bearish” for the stock, necessarily.

If Elon was selling, that explains the capped rise (although I’ll take up 7% over the freefall we’ve been getting lately).

Even if Elon was not selling, there’s obviously a reason for buyers to wait until they’re sure Elon’s done selling. We don’t even know and we would know better than anyone in the market.

Once we get an all clear, I think the stock will slowly start moving back toward the fundamentals. As Q4 results start becoming clear, people will realize more and more that Tesla is well positioned financially for the current economy and will start recovering.

NVDA and AMZN are recovering faster now, but remember that both of these companies have more headwinds to overcome come Q4 results to justify their PE ratios. Recall Amazon posted some poor forward guidance. Tesla will show high growth and excellent numbers which will help justify a higher PE ratio, and with EPS growing rapidly over the next year—even if margins come down slightly—PE will naturally drop anyway.

Plus, given that the market is forward-looking (albeit not very far forward-looking), growth stocks should start recovering in general as interest rate hikes are paused and, hopefully, eventually come back down.

There’s just a lot of fear, panic, and noise right now centered around Tesla. (Can’t blame the market for that).

It is a mystery to me that Elon’s stated life goals, sustainability and multi-planetary life, seem to have taken a back seat to his current project.

Maybe in some respects that is a bullish sign that things at SpaceX and Tesla are on cruise control and under control. In some respects it helps reduce the market’s key man risk perspective if they see Tesla killing it even while Elon is focused elsewhere.

I’ve often worried about Elon’s oversized ownership in available TSLA shares. It puts the stock price too strongly in one person’s hands. The silver lining in Elon’s selling is that it helps diversify ownership of TSLA.

Once your machine is well-oiled, do you need a guy walking around and adding more oil to the machines on a daily basis?

Thank you. Makes a lot of sense. I couldn’t really grasp the difference in the effect of float increase and dilution. Thanks again for making it clear.

 

[Singuy]

What you keep ignoring is that BYD is already selling the car for as much as they can get. In other words, it's worth a lot less than the Tesla that you claim is only a little cheaper to manufacture. If they could sell it in high volumes for the same price as the Tesla you are comparing it to, then you would have a valid point. You need to compare manufacture costs of products that can sell for the same price.

We don't know what they can charge. Currently they are selling at 2x the BEV volume in China with a 700k car backlog as of september(and lets say half of them are BEV). So could they charge more and sit at a lower backlog? How much more? No idea.

 

[StealthP3D]

I wish Elon would give more than a one word Tweet. Which part was "False"?
1. Tesla is considering importing Chinese-made cars to the US?
2. There is slower demand from Chinese consumers?, or
3. Both?

We know the article was not wrong about slower demand for Tesla because there is a recession and that has predictable results. But that does not mean there is less demand than supply. And I'm confident there isn't or we would be seeing Tesla pulling all kinds of demand levers that they are not pulling.

Elon was refuting the idea that they are considering importing Shanghai cars to the US. He has previously recently flat out refuted that Tesla has any kind of demand problem.

So, I'm scratching my head at the few people who keep contemplating demand problems. Because that would presume that either Elon has no visibility into demand for Tesla or that he's actively and blatantly covering up a demand problem, neither of which I can afford any serious weight.

I'll make it really super clear:

THERE IS NO SIGN OF A DEMAND PROBLEMperiod

 

[SOULPEDL]

And the corresponding tweet, along with picture:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591131214328778752

Great visual! Let this sink in...

"It has no moving parts, is half the size, and twice as powerful as Combined Charging System (CCS) connectors."

Who will be first to eat humble pie? Maybe they'd rather stick to adapters and all the handshaking glitches. Will look good in the future for their brand. /s​

 

[FSDtester#1]

THERE IS NO SIGN OF A DEMAND PROBLEM.....!!!!!!!!

FTFY

 

[oldTAVguy]

Honestly, what took them so long: Opening the North American Charging Standard

Edit: This would have made more sense to do five years ago ... why now?

Make the All Tesla charges open to autos using this charging standard. Or at lower rate than non-compliant autos.

And let the Tesla charging standard charge faster. Safety first....