Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

Mod: as per message yesterday, I took the time and brainpower to move twitter related posts to the other thread. As of now, I will delete any more in this thread. --ggr

Why waste your time and in a way that encourages bad behavior? People would be more careful about where they're posting if you just delete them so they have to type it out again in the proper place if it's really that important.

 

[Sancho]

I’m not saying that Elon’s selling, and other Elon non-Tesla activities, didn’t have an impact on the SP this week, but the biggest factor to me always seems the same week after week: the outsized influence of options.

Doesn’t it look to you that the last two days has been mostly a gargantuan effort to keep the SP far enough from a $200 Friday close to protect the big $200 weekly call wall?

And I’m still uncertain whether there’s anything nefarious about that. Is there really an evil empire of MSMs in cohoots with big media, big oil and legacy auto? Or is it just market dynamics at work when there is an unprecedented amount of speculation in short term options that expire each week? These weekly call and put walls create very powerful magnets that pull SP prices in certain directions.

Perhaps we have met the enemy and he is us! (or those of us speculating in options).

 

[ggr]

Why waste your time and in a way that encourages bad behavior? People would be more careful about where they're posting if you just delete them so they have to type it out again in the proper place if it's really that important.

A long background in parallel processing and race conditions. I made the statement, but was trying to be nice enough that people who were still replying to messages posted before getting to yesterday's directive got a bit of grace. No more grace from me on this subject.

 

[Ogre]

I'm not sure if that is true. In addition to the Federal standards, each state adds their own standards on top. And a lot of states have specified that CCS connectors are required to get funding. Of course, now that NACS is open they could change their standards. (But NACS is only the connector not the communication side, which seems like only half of what is needed. Now Tesla could add the CCS protocol to the Superchargers to be used over the NACS connector, at which point would that qualify as CCS as far as the NEVI funding is concerned?)

I'm not sure. What I'd seen from the federal level was something along the lines of it being required that the charger work with multiple brands of vehicles. But a lot of that was just broad policy and the administration might decide more specifics is required. Also as you suggest, states are actually responsible for specifics and might specify CCS expressly.

Either way, some car makers might take Tesla's offer. I could see Rivian jumping that ship, having a reliable charging network is a big advantage.

 

[Stretch2727]

Interesting. Whoever jumps first will see a significant jump in sales in my opinion. Access to the supercharger network is what keeps lots of Tesla owners buying teslas.

They probably would have a better shot at converting Rivian, Lucid or Fisker. They also might have a shot at Ford. Doug Fields (prior Tesla VP ) has charging as part of his responsibilities at Ford and said he is looking at all options in a Sandy Monroe interview.

 

[mongo]

I'm not sure if that is true. In addition to the Federal standards, each state adds their own standards on top. And a lot of states have specified that CCS connectors are required to get funding. Of course, now that NACS is open they could change their standards. (But NACS is only the connector not the communication side, which seems like only half of what is needed. Now Tesla could add the CCS protocol to the Superchargers to be used over the NACS connector, at which point would that qualify as CCS as far as the NEVI funding is concerned?)

CCS is ISO 15118 which NACS works with "The North American Charging Standard is compatible with 'plug and charge' as defined in ISO-15118."
NACS also calls out compatibilty with the lower level Annex A of IEC 61851-1 protocol.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Lol. I remember a toy airplane assembly kit I got as a kid. It offered 230 (or so) different aircraft. Well, turns out that was the total number of permutations/combinations of wings, vertical stabilizers, horizontal stabilizers, etc. Most of these resulted in ridiculous looking configurations.

As I am sure these "100" or so new models will also look ridiculous.
OEM's have had it wrong for decades. Offer less models and choices, and perfect what you offer. Them planning to offer tons of models is a recipe for failure.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Perhaps we have met the enemy and he is us! (or those of us speculating in options).

Queue the "hinged pendulum" video (chaotic system)

Naked Puts: Selling you the future right to sell shares you don't own. All without checking how many shares exist.

That's the Wall St. derivatives market right now, and IT IS the problem.

 

[Discoducky]

OEM's have had it wrong for decades. Offer less models and choices, and perfect what you offer. Them planning to offer tons of models is a recipe for failure.

It was the only way to scale for a company that wasn't truly innovating. Smoke and mirrors. But they all did it and it became ingrained.

 

[Speedr117]

Queue the "hinged pendulum" video (chaotic system)

Naked Puts: Selling you the future right to sell shares you don't own. All without checking how many shares exist.

That's the Wall St. derivatives market right now, and IT IS the problem.

The Madoff rule! That it was championed by a fraudster seems obvious, why it hasn't been repealed, I'll never know (but it probably rhymes with funny).

 

[jschwefel]

The car terminal in the port of Zeebrugge is full of parked cars according to the local TV news:

Autoterminals in havens staan tjokvol: "Geen capaciteit om ze naar de eindconsument te brengen"

www.vrt.be

Apparently there are not enough trucks and/or truck drivers to distribute these cars over Europe.
There were quite a few Teslas in the picture, there was no mention how much this impacted Tesla.

I can’t wait for Tesla to finish FSD! Not only would it be great to have personally, but it could solve some of these logistics problems too.

 

[Singuy]

So, you are claiming BYD is running a charity because they could raise their prices substantially and still sell in the same volumes? Your original statement was that BYD could produce cars nearly as cheaply as Tesla and that implies the two cars you are comparing are equivalent in value (even though the BYD sells for considerably less). Does it threaten Audi sales if VW can make cars almost as cheaply as Audi? Of course not, VW should be able to make cars considerably cheaper than Audi because they can't sell a VW for Audi prices.

My commonsense deduction is that BYD are selling at the highest price that they have confidence they won't run out of buyers before the production run is sold out. Anything less would be a colossal failure to execute well.

This is how some Chinese do business. Well currently BYD is the one with at least a 4 month backlog and Tesla doesn't in China...so you can make whatever conclusion you want. BYD is delivering 2x more of their cars than Tesla in China and has a backlog. If you think their backlog will disappear and they will end up pushing out less car than Tesla if they went with price parity than sure you can speculate in that direction. The data doesn't exactly line up with that direction currently.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Interesting tidbit from the NACS specs. Vehicle to X:

The North American Charging Standard is compatible with Vehicle to X (i.e. Vehicle to load, Vehicle to home, vehicle to grid) power transfer. Future versions of this technical specification will specify the functional requirements and specifications required to achieve vehicle to X power transfer.

 

[elasalle]

doscientos we see you

 

[StealthP3D]

And the corresponding tweet, along with picture:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591131214328778752

This is huge, and I don't want to hear from all the naysayers claiming this is in direct conflict with Tesla's Patent policy.

Let the fun begin! Legacy auto will continue using the clunky J-1772 in an attempt to "isolate" Tesla. I don't see how they can change anyway, considering they do not control the DC Fast Chargers that use the J-1772 standard.

Tesla will keep making and selling cars in greater numbers and expanding their Supercharger Network in proportion to fleet size. Maybe Arcimoto will be the first to announce adoption of the Tesla Standard because their 3-wheel vehicles are so small the J-1772 portlet requires a significant amount of space (and even more if you want to bring a charging connector with you on the road).

What do you all think? Will the J-1772 standard ever catch up to the Tesla charging standard in N. America in terms of deployed charging stalls and/or cars in the fleet?

 

[FSDtester#1]

Tesla camera catches Texas tire thieves in the act

Always nice to see positive Tesla news on multiple websites.
It doesn't happen often, so a nice change of pace!

 

[ABCTG]

This is huge, and I don't want to hear from all the naysayers claiming this is in direct conflict with Tesla's Patent policy.

Let the fun begin! Legacy auto will continue using the clunky J-1772 in an attempt to "isolate" Tesla. I don't see how they can change anyway, considering they do not control the DC Fast Chargers that use the J-1772 standard.

Tesla will keep making and selling cars in greater numbers and expanding their Supercharger Network in proportion to fleet size. Maybe Arcimoto will be the first to announce adoption of the Tesla Standard because their 3-wheel vehicles are so small the J-1772 portlet requires a significant amount of space (and even more if you want to bring a charging connector with you on the road).

What do you all think? Will the J-1772 standard ever catch up to the Tesla charging standard in N. America in terms of deployed charging stalls and/or cars in the fleet?

Aptera is definitely on board

Congress: Tesla Superchargers and Plugs should be the U.S. Standard for EVs | Aptera

Congress: Tesla Superchargers and Plugs should be the U.S. Standard for EVs While electric vehicle technology has rapidly advanced, the charging standard in the U.S. has not. CCS and SAE J1772, the US’s common standards, are |

aptera.us

 

[JupiterMan]

I’m not saying that Elon’s selling, and other Elon non-Tesla activities, didn’t have an impact on the SP this week, but the biggest factor to me always seems the same week after week: the outsized influence of options.

Doesn’t it look to you that the last two days has been mostly a gargantuan effort to keep the SP far enough from a $200 Friday close to protect the big $200 weekly call wall?

And I’m still uncertain whether there’s anything nefarious about that. Is there really an evil empire of MSMs in cohoots with big media, big oil and legacy auto? Or is it just market dynamics at work when there is an unprecedented amount of speculation in short term options that expire each week? These weekly call and put walls create very powerful magnets that pull SP prices in certain directions.

Perhaps we have met the enemy and he is us! (or those of us speculating in options).

for me just buy and hold.

All options include risks, and are simply betting on short term movements which in a bear market are impossible to predict, all in the quest for substantial gains (or losses!)

Just buy into Tesla and hold. avoids calls/puts/options, and over the medium/long term we will all do very very well.

 

[Ogre]

This is huge, and I don't want to hear from all the naysayers claiming this is in direct conflict with Tesla's Patent policy.

LOL. This is exactly the sort of carve out I said they didn't have previously. But you seemed to assume was already in place.

Super happy to see it. Wish it had been there sooner.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm not sure. What I'd seen from the federal level was something along the lines of it being required that the charger work with multiple brands of vehicles. But a lot of that was just broad policy and the administration might decide more specifics is required. Also as you suggest, states are actually responsible for specifics and might specify CCS expressly.

Either way, some car makers might take Tesla's offer. I could see Rivian jumping that ship, having a reliable charging network is a big advantage.

It's important to distinguish between the physical standard and access to the Supercharger Network. They are two different things, and one is not required for the other (thus Tesla talking about adapters available at Superchargers). It's also possible that a manufacturer could adopt the Tesla Standard but not have a charging agreement with Tesla which would mean those cars could plug into a Supercharger, but nothing would happen.