Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

So were all European earlier teslas retrofitted to handle CCS2 then? Not sure how that transition happened. Thanks in advance.

Yeah I think all, at least the vast majority so you never see any V2 with 1 cable any more. It was just around the time when I got my Model 3 in spring 2019 with the CCS plug and I was surprised how quickly Tesla retroffited all the stations. I can not charge at the original 1-cable V2s and I ended up never having an issue with it.

 

[NicoV]

So were all European earlier teslas retrofitted to handle CCS2 then? Not sure how that transition happened. Thanks in advance.

No charge port retrofit. Model S/X users can opt for an upgrade to support a CSS adapter.

 

[Knightshade]

I would love to see Tesla do something creative . . . like recognize the FSD revenue . . . and then immediately use all of it for a share buy-back.

WS heads would explode.

..this doesn't make much sense from an accounting perspective?

They've got like 15-20B in liquid/cash equivalent assets NOT obligated as liabilities already, and all talk about a buyback would use only a fraction of that.

"recognize revenue" would make no difference at all to a buyback.... apart from which it wouldn't even be that much relative to cash on hand... (I think it's roughly 1 billion, give or take some hundreds of millions... and they couldn't recognize even all of THAT-- only the revenue from US and Canada buyers, and only those who bought after March 2019)

 

[bkp_duke]

..this doesn't make much sense from an accounting perspective?

They've got like 15-20B in liquid/cash equivalent assets NOT obligated as liabilities already, and all talk about a buyback would use only a fraction of that.

"recognize revenue" would make no difference at all to a buyback.... apart from which it wouldn't even be that much relative to cash on hand... (I think it's roughly 1 billion, give or take some hundreds of millions... and they couldn't recognize even all of THAT-- only the revenue from US and Canada buyers, and only those who bought after March 2019)

It was a whimsical statement. Stop over-analyzing it.

 

[NicoV]

Yeah I think all, at least the vast majority so you never see any V2 with 1 cable any more. It was just around the time when I got my Model 3 in spring 2019 with the CCS plug and I was surprised how quickly Tesla retroffited all the stations. I can not charge at the original 1-cable V2s and I ended up never having an issue with it.

IIRC, Tesla made sure that all V2 sites had at least a couple chargers retrofitted with a CCS cable to support the initial batch of delivered Model 3s, and then did another round to update the remaining chargers. A pretty amazing piece of customer service, and very considerate for the first Model 3 users who wanted to road trip around Europe.

 

[heltok]

Posted full breakdown in FSD thread here: FSD discussion

TL;DR - FSD everywhere, all roads. More human-like driving, which translates to the steering wheel not moving around a whole bunch when making a turn (aka smoother turns), proceeding in an intersection when it is clear vs awkwardly waiting when it doesn't need to, less unnatural slowdowns due to false negatives and positives.

Awesome notes, really helpful. Didn't seem like as massive improvements as we have seen before, but some solid gains. Some of the improvements is by methodologies that they can use for other similar tasks. I think the adverserial training can be used for any problem they struggle with.

- Reduced the predicted velocity error of very close-by motorcycles, scooters, wheelchairs, and pedestrians by 63.6%. To do this, we introduced a new dataset of simulated adversarial high speed VRU interactions. This update improves autopilot control around fast-moving and cutting-in VRUs.

The data new engine they can use is basically:
1. The car is not good enough at x
2. Let an adversarial network generate plausible scenarios where the neural network struggles
3. Simulate these and add the simulated videos and labels to the training set
4. Retrain and see improved performance at x
5. Repeat 2-4 until the car is good enough at x
6. The car is good enough at x

It's basically the data engine on steroids. Dojo will unlock more capability to use this. Will probably be very compute heavy and need a lot of fine tuning to make sure the adversarial network doesn't generate total noise but "real world" like scenarios that could happen.

For this one example they applied it to, they managed to reduce the error by 64%.

 

[MC3OZ]

There were also new V2s with dual cable (i.e. not retroffited). Tesla had a fairly slow rollout of V3 chargers in Europe while at the same time still installing new V2 with the dual cable solution. It‘s only recently (I’d say less than a year) that most (all?) new sites were V3.

We also have dual cable in Australia.

The additional expense is probably minimal, with the work required to do the retrofit the big issue.

However, Tesla would never want to support more than 2 cables.

As things stand there are a lot of EVs with the Tesla connector or the CCS connector, that makes it very hard for an alternative standard to gain traction.
So if we have single charging standard it is likely to be one of these 2.

The Tesla connector is the best solution, with dual cable supporting CCS for as long as it is needed.

In Australia Chademo is also typically dual cable, with some non-Tesla chargers supporting Chademo and CCS.

Chademo is apparently big in Japan, hence it would take longer to phase out there.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

No charge port retrofit. Model S/X users can opt for an upgrade to support a CSS adapter.

So there are still Tesla handle superchargers in Europe?

 

[MP3Mike]

So there are still Tesla handle superchargers in Europe?

They never had the NACS connector in Europe. They used a modified Type 2 for Superchargers.

For a legacy S/X they need to purchase a CCS2 adapter to use the V3 stalls, if their car didn't come with it. (They stated including it with the cars at a certain point.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Of course it's a bubble. The world is full of bubbles: it's a great model on how to understand the world. We live in a sort of multidimensional Hilbert space of intersecating bubbles... You are at the center of plenty of bubbles yourself. Now, the real question is: how big, and/or impactful, are the bubbles that are "hurt" by Elon shenanigans?

Rigged Hilbert space. /s

Cheers!

 

[printf42]

Anyone close to Crypto can share whether TSLA could have any exposure if a full scale Crypto meltdown happens?

My impression is for retail Crypto and stocks are very isolated.
As far as I know no exchange allowed using Crypto as collateral to buy stocks.
So even if a meltdown happen, it would only blow up leveraged crypto accounts, but not going to force liquidate stocks.

There would be some hedge funds in crisis, but those likely be shorting TSLA at the moment, if they have any exposure at all, is that a reasonable guess?

Anyone could provide a more educated guess on the impact, if a complete Crypto meltdown were to happen?

 

[Artful Dodger]

still up over 10,000% Let that sink in.

I see what you did there.

 

[bkp_duke]

/s

Some of us have older eyes, don't do that.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Correct me if I am wrong but I think we finally saw capitulation in TSLA and following Elon’s selling it forced anyone leveraged to sell and going below 2 years low forced all the stop losses to be triggered.

We found no more seller at $175 and couldn’t reach the infamous CGS price target of $140.

Anyone else turning back bullish on the stock?

 

[insaneoctane]

If you know anyone that has been passing around this Tesla China rumor, it is completely false and FUD:

"Online rumor citing Tesla inside source: Model 3 price to be cut to ¥ 219.9K Model Y price to be cut to ¥ 249.9K (163)"

View attachment 873812

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591332401116241921

"Tesla China: The online rumor on Model 3/Y price cuts is not true. h/t
@tiantianyueye"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591434794654892032

These kind of rumors can impact sales as some buyers wait from ordering or receiving vehicles to see.

 

[Artful Dodger]

(waiting for 1st country song about riding the CT ... to pick up the Dixie chicks ... )

Google replied: "Did you mean: country song about riding the CAT"

This seems somehow wrong...

Cheers to the Dawgs!

 

[PeterJA]

Is this for real, or hyperbole?

I was ready to believe it, because of all the FUD I've seen.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

They never had the NACS connector in Europe. They used a modified Type 2 for Superchargers.

For a legacy S/X they need to purchase a CCS2 adapter to use the V3 stalls, if their car didn't come with it. (They stated including it with the cars at a certain point.)

Informative. Thankyou.

 

[nativewolf]

Correct me if I am wrong but I think we finally saw capitulation in TSLA and following Elon’s selling it forced anyone leveraged to sell and going below 2 years low forced all the stop losses to be triggered.

We found no more seller at $175 and couldn’t reach the infamous CGS price target of $140.

Anyone else turning back bullish on the stock?

Always been bullish. Even when I complain I'm bullish. It's going to be fine, EM will keep selling or not maybe doing some harm to the stock in the short run but Tesla has single handedly changed the Auto world and has 3 or 4 years of lead before the battery factories come on line to enable actual competition. Will be a fun ride. Enjoy it and relax.

 

[jw934]

Anyone close to Crypto can share whether TSLA could have any exposure if a full scale Crypto meltdown happens?

My impression is for retail Crypto and stocks are very isolated.
As far as I know no exchange allowed using Crypto as collateral to buy stocks.
So even if a meltdown happen, it would only blow up leveraged crypto accounts, but not going to force liquidate stocks.

There would be some hedge funds in crisis, but those likely be shorting TSLA at the moment, if they have any exposure at all, is that a reasonable guess?

Anyone could provide a more educated guess on the impact, if a complete Crypto meltdown were to happen?

We know for sure that $TSLA has been tokenized but I have no idea on to what degree.

The token creator would have bought and is holding at least equal number of Tesla shares as the number of tokens sold, at least that is the purchaser’s expectation.