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I think the biggest edge Tesla has is 3 + million vehicles driving around collecting data around the world with the cars equipped with the hardware for fsd.

Yeah, functionally only cars running the FSD beta are collecting data to train the current software product. That means up to 160K Tesla cars recently, per Tesla's statements.

This will change when v11/single stack replaces std autopilot for the rest of the fleet. I expect this to begin by Christmas, and to be largely in place by Spring. Dojo should be up and running by then, and Tesla will need all the compute they can get.

Cheers!
 
Front page of today's NY Times. "Electric Vehicles Start To Enter the Car-Buying Mainstream". If I was new to this subject I would come away not knowing this was mostly due to Tesla. I also would be afraid of an unreliable and dangerous charging system.
From the article

Electric car buyers used words like “love” and “awesome” to describe their vehicles. Many said they would never buy a gasoline car again, but many others said they intended to keep at least one conventional vehicle, because traveling long distances by electric car can be inconvenient and sometimes impossible because of difficulties in finding charging stations.

The lack of fast and convenient places to charge electric cars on longer trips has been the main frustration. Chargers are few and far between outside coastal urban areas.

But she hadn’t considered that the battery would drain faster when the car was weighed down with her daughter’s possessions and her husband, Dave Daiber, who is 6 feet 4 inches tall.
Less than two hours into the trip, Ms. Milligan realized that the car was not going to make it to Toledo, Ohio, where she had planned to charge. Instead, they got off the highway in Findlay. Of the four chargers in town, one was behind a locked gate; another was at a Toyota dealership that would not let a Volkswagen use its charger; a third would charge only Teslas; and the fourth had been installed recently and was not yet working.

The family wound up spending the night at a hotel and making the rest of the trip in a rented van
A few electric car owners surveyed said the charging stations they stopped at sometimes lacked shelter and felt unsafe.

I could swear I read almost the exact same article a few months or more ago, most likely elsewhere (although this one is paywalled) including the part about having to get a hotel.
"Is it reel?, or is it Memorex?"
(for the oldsters)
"we can remember it for you wholesale"
 
only cars running the FSD beta are collecting data to train the current software product.
There is shadow mode! FSD runs silently in the background, not controlling the car. The human driver does something that is different from what FSD 'would' have done and then it can learn from those interactions. Ashok's team can harvest this data at will from any with FSD hardware.

Ashok talks about it at this timestamp.

 
While I agree with your post, if the 4680's are not the limiting factor then what is? Presumably when Tesla was designing the production lines for Cybertruck, while already knowing there are millions of pre-orders, they would have designed them to whatever part would not be available at sufficient scale. It's difficult to see another part that would cause an issue - possibly the lead times on new stamping machines or 9k presses might mean there will be step-change production levels over time and 4680 can keep ahead of this run rate.

Given the other components (ex cells, castings and 30X series stainless steel) of the cybertruck are fairly vanilla I doubt it's going to be a shortage of wheels or windows or windscreen wipers, etc.
Since 2020, Tesla has been primarily focused on battling Supply Chain Hell in order to produce more vehicles for the existing S3XY lineup, because that's what maximizes the rate of transition to sustainable energy.

Also, the explosive growth of demand for EVs over the last couple years has surprised Tesla. This is major change since 2019 when the Cybertruck was revealed, and it warranted a change of plans towards doubling down on S3XY. Likewise, Tesla was also surprised by the incredible demand for Cybertruck itself, which may have contributed to pushing back the schedule if Tesla had to revamp their manufacturing plans to optimize for higher production volume. The design of the line will differ depending on the targeted annual production capacity.

Elon on the Q4 '21 earnings call:
"The fundamental focus of Tesla this year [2022] is scaling output. So both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease. This is a very important point that I think people do not -- a lot of people do not understand. So last year, we spent a lot of engineering and management resources solving supply chain issues, rewriting code, changing our chips, reducing the number of chips we need, with chip drama central.

And there were not -- that was not the only supply chain issue, so -- just hundreds of things. And as a result, we were able to grow almost 90% while at least almost every other manufacturer contracted last year. So that's a good result. But if we had introduced, say, a new car last year, we would -- our total vehicle output would have been the same because of the constraints -- the chips constraints, particularly.

So if we'd actually introduced an additional product, that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. And the same is true of this year. So we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be parts constrained.

We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars?"

Zach on the Q3 '21 call:
"The great thing that we're seeing in the space right now is there appears to just be quite a profound awakening of the desirability for electric vehicles. And I mean, to be totally frank, it's caught us a little bit off guard."

Yeah they can say they aren't battery constrained as long as they aren't making the CT and as long as the Semi uses 2170. Lots of posts on here as to why the 2170 could be preferable or at least workable for the semi. For the CT that's not the case. ...

The CT needs the structural battery pack is my understanding. That's why all the agility in the world won't help because the 2170's just dont have the structure to create a rigid pack. That's where the super thick canister on the 4680 comes into play (likely other benefits there too but it's besides the point). So, it is perfectly true that the lack of 4680s does not hinder overall production. Also true that until they get the 4680 production higher they cant sell the CT.
Yes, 4680s are not currently being made in high enough volume enable mass production of Cybertruck, but it does not follow that 4680s are necessarily the reason for the delay of deliveries until mid-2023.

Tesla could have literally INFINITE supply of 4680s that cost $0 and magically self-assemble into structural packs, and yet Tesla still would not be able to accelerate plans for reaching volume production of Cybertruck, because 4680s are not on the critical path for the schedule until perhaps 2023 or 2024 when the other constraints have been solved.

In addition to battery cells, Cybertruck has required, for example:
  • IDRA and Tesla to design a 9k ton gigapress, which didn’t exist before and is bigger than any die casting machine in history
  • Refinement of the vehicle design
  • Development of novel vehicle manufacturing techniques
  • A factory, which is currently still under construction. The first phase of Giga Austin completed construction and started low rate initial production in April
  • Trained staff for operating the factory
Tesla has had their hands full just getting the Y line at Giga Texas up and running. They want to minimize factory complexity when starting out.


Why invent speculative theories about why Cybertruck is not being delivered to customers yet, considering that the CEO has already directly provided the answer several times?

"As mentioned publicly, Tesla is constrained by chip supply short-term & cell supply long-term." - Twitter, Nov 13th 2021
Martin Viecha: "Thank you. And the next question is, what are the biggest obstacles for Cybertruck volume production besides battery shortage?

Elon Musk: "Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. There's a lot of new technology in the Cybertruck that will take some time to work through. And then, there's a question of like, what's the average cost of Cybertruck and to what degree is that affordable? You know, there's -- you can make something infinitely desirable, but if it's not affordable, that will constrain people's ability to buy it because they don't have the money.I worry more about like how do we the Cybertruck affordable despite having awesome technology. That's the thing that will really set the rate." -- Q4'21 Earnings Call
"We're building a Cybertruck line here at Giga Texas...Sorry it [Cybertruck] took longer than expected, but there were a few things that got in the way, like insane global supply chain shortages, and pandemics, which are force majeures if there ever was one." - Q3’22 Earnings Call
Toni Sacconaghi: "do you anticipate 4680 being a gating factor for Cybertruck ramp later this year? …"
Elon Musk: "We don't anticipate this being any limiting factor for the Cybertruck or anything else." - Q3’22 Earnings Call
 
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Any time you want FSD you need to activate it. FSD does not automatically engage.
And there is a toggle while parked to turn it off. It literally says fsd beta, on or off.
Beta never turns on by itself. The driver has to turn it on Every time. No exceptions.
It can be turned off 2 ways, hit the brake or tap the right button on yoke or wheel.
Or you can turn the yoke/wheel which turns off beta but leaves on TACC.
I have heard people say they want to be unenrolled from beta and sent Tesla emails to do it. Head scratcher for me. It can be deactivated as described above.
Their arguments for asking Tesla to remove via email them is they want to be put back on the non beta higher build branches. My understanding is if you turn it off in the car and also toggle off the interior camera, when the next OTA happens you are out.
 
There is shadow mode! FSD runs silently in the background, not controlling the car.

Understood, but we have no idea of how widely it is being used. Seems you'd need to d/l the FSD stack before it could run in shadow mode, which is several gigabytes. I think some twitter user like green_the_only would have noticed by now if shadowing was widespread.

TL;dr I doubt Tesla and the FSD team are short of data at this point.
 
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Front page of today's NY Times. "Electric Vehicles Start To Enter the Car-Buying Mainstream". If I was new to this subject I would come away not knowing this was mostly due to Tesla. I also would be afraid of an unreliable and dangerous charging system.
Yep, wild guess on intention if this article...
[...]
A few electric car owners surveyed said the charging stations they stopped at sometimes lacked shelter and felt unsafe.
I also find it ironic that Porsche Taycan owners hang at Walmart ChargeAmerica chargers instead of with the Model S/3/X/Y crowd at superchargers. Hopefully that soon changes?
 
There is shadow mode! FSD runs silently in the background, not controlling the car. The human driver does something that is different from what FSD 'would' have done and then it can learn from those interactions. Ashok's team can harvest this data at will from any with FSD hardware.

Ashok talks about it at this timestamp.

Excellent post!! Like I mentioned earlier 3 + million Tesla's globally are collecting data. This assumes they are hardware 2.5 or higher, which is the vast majority of Tesla's on the road.
 
TL;dr I doubt Tesla and the FSD team are short of data at this point.
But they are and will always be on the hunt for better data, not more, but better.

In short, the more diverse the data set, the better. The more examples of the corner cases you get, the better the training will get. This data turns over completely fairly often and not just because the models are changing.

Tesla harvests these corner cases as they are super important.

James talks about it here at this time stamp

 
Understood, but we have no idea of how widely it is being used. Seems you'd need to d/l the FSD stack before it could run in shadow mode, which is several gigabytes. I think some twitter user like green_the_only would have noticed by now if shadowing was widespread.

TL;dr I doubt Tesla and the FSD team are short of data at this point.

I believe they still query the larger fleet to obtain more and better edge case video for training purposes.
 
Guess who is on the editorial board of the NYT times? Please inform yourself. Getting good information about electric vehicles from the NYT while he sits on the board is about as likely as getting water from a stone.


every few years Broder gets brought up, so, once again, here are the 8 Tesla's that recreated the Broder run to NYC the following weekend from the Tesla Service Center in Rockville, Maryland.

At that time superchargers were quite _"few and far between".

there was the one at Montgomery Mall a few miles away where the storefront is, another about 120 miles north on Interstate 95 at the Delaware Rest area, and a very long jump to New York City only able for the S85's as the S60's didn't quite have enough battery capacity.

a bunch of members of our EV club, EVADC went the the SC, a few folks came down from New York, (3rd car from left side) a couple from the eastern shore of maryland, a young couple literally on a lark, "lets do a road trip! ok, honey, where? NYC, OK, lets go"

everyone met at the SC, including a few Prius (me) and 3 Gen 1 Leafs. food was eaten, folks in S85's and S60's left late morning for Delaware supercharger where the S60's turned back, then S85's on to NYC in tempurature controlled comfort.

One S85 was set up to tweet, "inter tempurature a comfy xx degrees (usually 72)
this was in Feb, 2013

1668369971809.jpeg
 
Weekend OT post of the day: Extra screen for Model 3/y from Tesla Model 3 & Y MSX Driver View Dash & LCD Display (Smart Instrument Cluster) - I had no idea that was possible. Wowed. This should open up the market to customers that absolutely can't live without it...

The effect this will have on Tesla sales is immeasurable. The idea that a car needs a speedometer hidden behind a tiny steering wheel with a thick rim is misguided. It may have made a bit of sense when steering wheels were huge (before power steering) but the ergonomics of needing to see an instrument behind the tiny Model 3/Model Y steering wheel is not favorable.

Tesla did the correct thing by putting the speedometer just outside of the line of sight of the steering wheel. Drivers are no longer limited to adjusting the steering wheel height to the one position that allows a view of the speedometer. Instead, drivers can put it wherever the steering ergonomics will provide the best feel and control of the vehicle and reduce the chances of muscle fatigue shoulders and necks on long drives, thus increasing safety. The Model 3 is the first car that lets drivers put the steering wheel in the most natural position, without regard for viewing the speedometer.

Watch anyone, and I mean anyone, adjust the steering height when they get in a rental car, and you will notice they look down at the speedometer so they can put the steering wheel in the position that allows them to see the speedometer through the little space between the top rim and the column.
 
Maybe. Its not clear if this can be implemented w/o the car having the FSD stack. Again, if there was some evidence of non-FSD beta cars uploading video clips, that would be helpful. But we're OT on tech now...

Cheers!

It is clear because Tesla was querying for edge cases before anyone had FSD. Unless they were lying...
 
Maybe. Its not clear if this can be implemented w/o the car having the FSD stack. Again, if there was some evidence of non-FSD beta cars uploading video clips, that would be helpful. But we're OT on tech now...

Cheers!
The non-FSD cars silently run the FSD beta software, something happens that is important, that something is encoded in a simple token, that token is small (a few bytes), that token is processed, then the auto-labeller requests the FSD fleet to capture that same/similar thing that is important, then the FSD fleet then captures and sends back clips.

Not that hard...
 
Good article about the supercharger network and how beneficial it is to Tesla.

 
Good article about the supercharger network and how beneficial it is to Tesla.

Why are you posting a link that can only be opened on iPhones. Find the source please. Apples walled garden is ridiculous. Don't be ignorant of it.
 
The effect this will have on Tesla sales is immeasurable. The idea that a car needs a speedometer hidden behind a tiny steering wheel with a thick rim is misguided. It may have made a bit of sense when steering wheels were huge (before power steering) but the ergonomics of needing to see an instrument behind the tiny Model 3/Model Y steering wheel is not favorable.
Unless we have the Yoke steering wheel not obstructing its view... Search: 21 results found for "yoke" [Tsportsline search result]