petit_bateau
Active Member
This is very opaque. There could be an error of 7,000 in the Q3 2022 numbers below, i.e. the Fremont numbers below might be 7k too high if Austin & Berlin did better than thought.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Seems like if I'm a Tesla competitor, I scream this from the rooftops...Our batteries have greater energy density than Tesla's. I mean what other plays do they have anyway?
Probably more than don’t care, as long as it yields equivalent range, which it doesn’t yet. Perhaps a few serious Tesla geeks would opt for the structural pack, but for know, when there is no weight or performance advantage, and a range disadvantage, the 4680 is second-best.
I have to say, my Fremont Y was essentially perfect as delivered. Not interested in more weight and less range for no other gains.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Really unhappy with the stock these days. Another day of outperforming our beta on a RED day. Used to be entertaining, now it's just painful. Did I skip a bunch of pages? What's the excuse today?
RobDickinson
Active Member
Todays price action demonstrates nicely why it is a problem when Elon sells and TSLA is Red on Macro green days. Because we don't make it up on Macro red days. We are now closer to the 52 week low than the Nasdaq, which means if the Nasdaq goes back to the 52 week low, TSLA will be in the pre-split 400s, below the 2 year low, despite 3 new factories and massive profits in the last two years. 
MountainRatMat
Member
"Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful"
I was greedy in 2013
I was greedy in 2021
I am greedy now
only time will tell but hopefully I get 2 out of 3 right
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I was greedy earlier this year....oops.
I'll probably figure this timing thing out when it's time to retire.
I'll probably figure this timing thing out when it's time to retire.
The people who claim that Elon's behavior has nothing to do with share price are oddly quiet these days.Todays price action demonstrates nicely why it is a problem when Elon sells and TSLA is Red on Macro green days. Because we don't make it up on Macro red days. We are now closer to the 52 week low than the Nasdaq, which means if the Nasdaq goes back to the 52 week low, TSLA will be in the pre-split 400s, below the 2 year low, despite 3 new factories and massive profits in the last two years.
Poster claims the factory looks cleaner. Perhaps the result due to the logistic guys shipped in from China.
I did read somewhere that those 4680 Model Ys are nice cars to drive with good fit and finish.
For a new vehicle production, at a new factory, with a new type of pack and in house cell production for the first time, it isn't a bad result.
We don't yet know the margins on these vehicles, but I am expecting at least a pass mark there.
The cells and the packs will be continuously optimised, we have years of likely improvements, this is just the start.
But hey you know...that 4680 ramp is perfect according to some on here.
Yeah… I def tend to side with those who think the performance will get sorted and it won’t be just a boon to profitability.
But gonna take awhile.
Yeah….and of course the Austin factory was built with lessons learned in QC and factory layout….so not surprising if we’re seeing good results.
I agree it does look cleaner and more organised.
Also more scrap car bodies seemed to be piled up outside.
2 possible explanations.
1. They are trying new build processes.
And / Or
2. They have also cleaned up and organised inside the factory.
I'm leaning towards 2.
The clean-up isn't an end in itself, just the start of likely production improvements.,
The 4680 is not a consumer feature. It's a business case. It was unveiled at a shareholder event. Cost reduction is a feature to Tesla and TSLA owners.
Consumers shouldn't care about that unless it translates into a lower purchase price. As a shareholder I care because they have greatly reduced the cost of manufacture.
Maybe some future version of the 4680 will have higher energy density. But Tesla's #1 goal is lower capital expenditure and lower operating costs in battery manufacturing. They've achieved that. Even if the 4680 never surpasses the 2170 in terms of energy density or charging performance, it's already a huge win for Tesla.
RobDickinson
Active Member
Not sure anyone said that? Why the strawman argument?
Its better to start with a basic chemistry and get the process working (with dry electrode etc) and throw in improvements later than try doing it all at once and delay for years.
This is always the tesla way, do it fast and iterate
larmor
Active Member
Continued production of already sold cars and new Semi to be unveiled in a two week's time while elon is playing with twitter-- this is a huge bullish sign. None of the headlines recently or fud to be coming will be able to pick up anything meaningful from a trial contesting his bonus-- because the bonus was based on aspirational and ludicrous expectations and goals. And yet here we are with those goals established and no one expected them to be, at least no one in fudland. Try getting any other exec or founder to agree to such goals with no compensation if they are not met, and see who steps up to the plate-- i'm talking to you M. Barra, you led and it matters...
Maybe there are some other gains, though. Besides the more modern design of the Texas MY, the new 4680 batteries may have better safety and/or longevity characteristics. Hard to know at this stage, admittedly. Nothing wrong with being pleased with your CA car, but I wouldn't look down my nose at the structural pack cars either.
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